Versus and FNF Cards

I'm exploiting a couple of early sportsbook lines that were soft. I should really have gotten more in at these prices. Clottey is essentially the house fighter in with a loser, Estrada is gonna beat a gate keeper. There's always risk of a KO in heavyweight fights, but his opponent was stopped by Sultan Ibragimov. I feel pretty good about this play.

Parlay Clottey -450 and Estrada -225

2.8 units to win 2.1

I may very well agry, Toledo's permitting LMS. But I wanna do a scale-watch on "Ponch" Estrada first. If he's high 23o's to low 24o's; I'm ok with him being in shape, taking it seriously, and will quest for a Decision Prop or SU if that's all I can find. But if Estrada is high 24o's or even back into the 25o's, there might be some upset value in Whitty as Whitty is the bigger/stronger guy who clearly has the voltage edge over the 2 KO Estrada. Show me the scales and I may just follow your play, or I'll reach a tad on the upset, maybe even ITD as this is in JE's backyard, which can not help Whitty on the scorecards.

bigeiii

& "yes" I agry on Clottey, played the same myself in a Parlay.

GLA!
bigeiii

Looks pretty solid, Bigeiii is right though that Estrada's weight could be telling.  Isn't it wild that Goosen had a lot of people believing that Whitaker may be the next best thing when they were working together? 

Shows how easy it is to sell a Heavyweight compared to any other weight-class as well Fulbrights. Heavy's=easy buy in for a lotta  people, be that real or perceived. Goosen I kinda like, but he kinda rubs me the wrong way at times as well.

GLA!
bigeiii

Kinda the odd stoppage. But would a slower busted up Cruz have won? I doubt it. So I'll take it.

bigeiii

I have a bigger problem with them making this fight than stopping it.

After Cintron opted to fight Marg and next week's card was set, what could Clottey have done? It was just a keep busy fight.

I'm not a matchmaker, just a gambler who knows a joke line when he sees one.

I'm seeing what I wanted to see outta  "Ponch" Estrada. He's 239lbs. BUT..........so is Whitty?!? Yup. Whitty cut almost 25 lbs to prep for FNF's!

WoW. I did not expect that. I'll be looking for Estrada on a Decision and a Whitty Stoppage for this.

I kinda like Aaron to beat Andre. Andre has not be real active since 2004. But he is coming down from Heavyweight. That and his more than 2:1 experienced edge make this interesting. I'll wait to see if Outcome Props open or not.

GLA!
bigeiii

Estrada by Decision, and Whitty ITD both parlayed with Jhonny, Paul or whichever perfect lefty Moliter this guy us up on his NAFTA homecourt in Ontario with Khan. (.67u, then .33u respectively)

If no outcome prop opens (does not look like it will), I'll play .1u on Aaron with Jhonnnny and Khan.

bigeiii

I'm looking forward to seeing Aaron tonight, I have read some good things on him.  I was shocked when I saw those Whitaker scale results, that's not the Goofy that I know.

Guys I'm backing out of this one. Sorry if anyone tailed, but I won't endorse any play on Estrada. After seeing the weigh in photos and reexamining Estrada's career, I think he's very likely to be knocked out today. This is nowhere near the Foreman, Clottey level of an upset. I think we'll be hearing one of Teddy's "When a guy steps up in class...." speeches tonight.

Whitaker +220

1.5 units to win 3.4

Aaron with a cracking good 3rd right hand. Jhonny has won. Pushing me to Khan SU as the closer.

But I wanna see Aaron aagain. Dude took a couple of decent enough shots flush. That shows me a pretty nice beard, might suggest a little too loose defense as well. But a thick beard can bail a guy with that much voltage out.

bigeiii

The guy is young and it was a great KO, but I've got to say I wasn't blown away. His defense is interesting but not airtight, and he gets very wide with his right hands.

A fight with Eric Fields in a year or two would be fun, no question.

Well, I've advanced 4 paralys, and dropped 4. But money management has that set up real nice if Khan & Felix "Covergirl" Strum will just win. Estrada Decision moved along, ITD on Whitty did not.

Estrada trys, and he is an actually pretty decent technician. But nothing Belt holding special to see here folks. He's nice, but he's not great, and some banger will wear him down somewhere along the way.

bigeiii

I'd say I definitely overestimated Shitaker, but I don't think I underestimated Estrada by an means. He just had no reason to be frustrated, as LW never tested him or even made him uncomfortable. The light light weight for him seemed in reality to be a negative. If he was only going to be laying against Estrada, why not do it with 30 extra lbs of bulk?

I can see why Estrada was a good amateur, but I think he's a broke man's Eddie Chambers. Find me a crude version of Povetkin, and I'll gladly cash that ticket. Oh well, next weekend is going to be huge.