Value Bet Of The Weedend=== Carl Froch +150

Question

The object of any boxing match is to win by points or KO. In this bout, it seems to me, you have one fighter that can only win by KO. That is Abraham. The other fighter can win by KO or decision by any stretch of the imagination. So, Froch has 2 ways to win, while Abraham one. How can you lay 8-5 on the one dimensional boxer when they are very close in class & ability? I Can't! Froch is an underrated boxer who understands distance & the power of a good stiff jab to dictate & control that distance. Abraham will likely give away the 1st 7 or 8 rounds by playing mostly defense & fighting for 40 seconds of each early round. He seems to have made a habit of this questionable strategy. Not a great way to impress the neutral judges IMO. Abraham also has the mindset that he can end the fight at any time, with one big punch. He can, but against world class opponents, this may not be the best plan of action, even if it has worked in the past against inferior opposition. Abraham is always dangerous late, but by that time he may be so far behind on the scorecards that he might over-commit to his power punches & leave himself open to a counter shot. Bottom line...... Abraham is not a busy enough fighter to warrant him being such a substantial favorite against the crafty Froch. I made Froch a small favorite when the fight was 1st announced. Nothing has happened since that time to make me change my mind. I'll take the busier & smarter boxer & hope to avoid a late hail Mary bomb. GLTU!!

Carl Froch +150 5 Units

Redlad · Answer

The object of any boxing match is to win by points or KO. In this bout, it seems to me, you have one fighter that can only win by KO. That is Abraham. The other fighter can win by KO or decision by any stretch of the imagination. So, Froch has 2 ways to win, while Abraham one. How can you lay 8-5 on the one dimensional boxer when they are very close in class & ability? I Can't! Froch is an underrated boxer who understands distance & the power of a good stiff jab to dictate & control that distance. Abraham will likely give away the 1st 7 or 8 rounds by playing mostly defense & fighting for 40 seconds of each early round. He seems to have made a habit of this questionable strategy. Not a great way to impress the neutral judges IMO. Abraham also has the mindset that he can end the fight at any time, with one big punch. He can, but against world class opponents, this may not be the best plan of action, even if it has worked in the past against inferior opposition. Abraham is always dangerous late, but by that time he may be so far behind on the scorecards that he might over-commit to his power punches & leave himself open to a counter shot. Bottom line...... Abraham is not a busy enough fighter to warrant him being such a substantial favorite against the crafty Froch. I made Froch a small favorite when the fight was 1st announced. Nothing has happened since that time to make me change my mind. I'll take the busier & smarter boxer & hope to avoid a late hail Mary bomb. GLTU!!

Carl Froch +150 5 Units

punchmaster · Answer

&#xD;&#xA;One argument against this is the fact that before AA put JT to sleep in the 12th,  he had overtaken him on the cards...he&#x27;s no dummy.    Is Froch&#x27;s defense that much better than Miranda&#x27;s who AA destroyed in 4??? Yea, so it will take AA a few more rounds to stop him.

Mack05 · Answer

RedLad I don&#x27;t agree. Listen to the weigh in yesterday. The whole of Finland is cheering for AA. This is essentially a home fight for AA and your really underestimating the home crowd effect here. Froch in my humble opinion will need to thoroughly dominate the fight to win on points. I just cannot see this happening..&#xD;&#xA;If this fight goes to points it will be close and the value is with the &#x27;hometown&#x27; fighter. I think when you consider all the variables in this fight the REAL value is with AA.

kuranes · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by Mack05]  RedLad I don&#x27;t agree. Listen to the weigh in yesterday. The whole of Finland is cheering for AA. This is essentially a home fight for AA and your really underestimating the home crowd effect here. Froch in my humble opinion will need to thoroughly dominate the fight to win on points. I just cannot see this happening..&#xD;&#xA;If this fight goes to points it will be close and the value is with the &#x27;hometown&#x27; fighter. I think when you consider all the variables in this fight the REAL value is with AA.   [/Quote]Know little about boxing, but I&#x27;m tailing you on this play Mack.  Just wanted to point out that you might be the only one I&#x27;ve ever seen on covers who understands that value doesn&#x27;t necessarily mean &#x2B; money.  Value is probably the most overused and poorly used word on covers...  Cheers.

Redlad · Answer

Value means an advantage in the actual betting odds to the posted betting odds. Plain & Simple. Not Rocket Science. You don't have to be betting on the underdog to have Value. Laying 2-1 0n a 4-1 shot ... is also value. But Thanks for the lecture Kuranes. If I made Froch the favorite & can take +150 on the fight. Guess what? To me, I have value. As far as the home town edge is concerned...... You have to throw punches to win rounds. It's hard to win a round when the opponent throws twice as many shots as you do. Also not rocket science. I think Froch is the better boxer, with many physical advantages over Abraham (height, reach, natural weight). The only edge I give Abraham is pure power. So could Abraham KO Froch? Of course it is possible..... But the most likely scenario, in my mind is Froch out boxing him. Best of Luck.

Mack05 · Answer

Froch is only value if you see this fight as 50/50 or better in his favour. I think AA with so much in his favour wins this fight 7 out of 10 times...The value is with him. Trust me

esplanade · Answer

No. Anything better than 40 of 100 yields value @ &#x2B;150.

Redlad · Answer

That was a little easier then I expected as Abraham gave up half way through the fight. Froch's jab was superb as I did envision. It enabled him to control the ring & keep the proper distance the whole fight. I was very impressed by his performance today.

Let's get a little greedy & press with Marquez inside the distance +115 for 2 Units in the late HBO bout.

Redlad · Answer

Marquez put some nice icing on the cake for the Redman tonight.

What I learned from that fight was

1. Marquez is among the best 20 fighters to ever lace up the gloves.

2. Tomorrow I start to drink my own urine.

PS........ Having said that= Marquez will NEVER beat Pacman at this point in his career. This kid came straight in making himself an easy target. Pacquiao will use angles & is just Too Fast for Marquez of hand & foot. Anything Under 3-1 is a steal IMO.

EricLinny · Answer

Great night

Jerseyboy89 · Answer

Katsidis came in straight just like Margarito came in straight.

Redlad · Answer

&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;THANKS!

punchmaster · Answer

&#xD;&#xA;Very impressive night Redlad,  that was some great capping.  I imagine you had slight pause when Marquez was on the canvas,  I thought he was a bit hurt but weathered that beautifully only to be dominating by rounds end.  Top 20 of all time in my book also. Smoothest combo puncher on the planet.    Agreed, Paq too big, fast at this point.          Top Rank is starting to make me a bit sick making sure they have all advantages, money.    Paq will only fight JMM at 147,  where I don&#x27;t think he&#x27;d hurt himself to get to 140.

Value Bet Of The Weedend=== Carl Froch +150

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