Upcoming UFC fights and odds discussion

Franklin -185

Okami +155

 

Penn -500

Pulver +350

 

Silva -200

Marquardt +160

 

Sherk -185

Franca +155

 

Evans +100

Ortiz -130

 

 

 

 

 

 

Early leans (bold indicates I would make a play right now):

 

*Franklin, I think Okami was in trouble with Swick during stretches of the fight, Okami is use to being alot bigger and stronger than the other guy. That won't be the case with Franklin.

 

*Penn, No reason to lay this kind of chalk on Penn. His cardio is always questionable. Considering the current upset trend, Pulver is certainly a live dog.

 

*Marquardt, I think he presents match-up problems for Silva. I believe Silva was -180 a couple of weeks ago, so you might be able to get Marquardt at +200 or higher come fight time.

 

*Sherk, Despite his win streak, Franca hasn't impressed me. I think he got lucky with Spencer Fisher's injury. He won't be able to defend Sherk's takedowns.

 

*Evans/Ortiz, Tough fight to call. I have no idea and probably won't touch it! 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

'Sup  jd? 

 

I agree with your thoughts on the Franklin fight.  Okami really looked bad/uncomfortable on his feet v.s Swick and had he have not been so much stronger than Swick, would've lost that fight.  I also think Swick was a bit overrated with the majority of his wins v.s lesser opponents.  This is a step up for Okami and I think a determined Franklin will be ready for him.

 

As of right now I don't have much a lean either way in the Penn/Pulver fight or the Silva/Marquardt fight.  But like you said, I won't take penn -500 with his cardio.  Actually with the way '07 has gone (all the upsets), I won't take anybody over -300.

 

I'm actually leaning towards taking Franca v.s. Sherk, maybe it's because of my extreme dislike for Sherks style of fighting.  He is very boring to watch, Florian dominated the stand-up in their fight but Sherk would just overpower him and take him down and lay there.  Besides, I think Sherk's reign of champion in the lightweight division is the longest current reign in the UFC, with the way these fights have been going lately, it's very possible we see this upset happen.

 

I can't wait for Ortiz/Evans.  I think that's gonna be a great fight.  I'm leaning towards Evans but that's 'cuz I'm a fellow Spartan.  Good Luck to All!

 

 

 

 

Did you year Swick saying to his corner "This mofo(Okami) is strong"  after round 1.  Okami is one of the strongest fighters at 185.  I think it's a 50/50 fight.

 

Yeah, the guy in his corner yelled at him for saying it, that was funny! But that was after round 1. Swick had Okami in trouble along the cage in round 2 and Okami basically had to bury his face in Swick's legs to prevent anymore punches from landing. Okami then scored a takedown and prevented any further damage. I love Okami, but I don't think he will be able to stand with Franklin and he won't be able to overpower him like he did with Swick.

 

  

 

gimme Jens at +350...what the hell

What book has odds on Penn/Pulver?

 

Sportsbook.com, which is actually good for MMA, bad for everything else.

 

 

 

 

Serra at +330!!!  WOW, I really think Hughes will win that fight but that's one helluva payout on the current champ.  Despite my gut feeling I might have to bet on Serra at that price, I took him against St. Pierre at +750, shit I might try my luck in this one as well.

Thanks for posting those odds FB! Decent picks.

Couture -105
Gonzaga -125

Koscheck +180
St. Pierre -240

Serra +330
Hughes -450

Henderson +120
Rampage -160
what are the dates of these fights? is this ufc 74?

 

Couture

St. Pierra

Serra

Page

 

Swick is a light MW.  Franklin is a very big MW.  He usd to fight in the LH division.  Okami is a big MW too, but not Franklin big.  So the strength factor wont be as a lopsided in this fight against Franklin.

 

Okami has not fought anyone near Franklin's skill set.  This is a huge leap for him.  He will not be able to keep the pace or the intensity to match Franklin.  He is a cardio machine in the cage.  We have all seen Franklin's chin, so Okami wont be able to Rich out with a quick 1-2-3 punch.  I dont think Okami has that power anyways.  If that was Franklin fighting Swick, Swick would have been punished and beaten badly.  Okami got a UD and won 2/3 of the rounds.  Franklin TKO in the 2nd RD.

 

Macdonald should walk through Singer.  IMO Singer is a bum.  Macdonald has some skills on the ground and Singer wont be able to keep this standing.  Not that he wants to because he wont be able to knock Macdonald out.  Singer has lost to several TUF fighters and Macdonald has beaten those same fighters.  To me this is the easiest on the board.  Macdonald will control the entire fight.  The only thing that scares me is, why are they giving Macdonald this guy?  Singer is BAD!  Boring UD for Macdonald

 

If your book has it, I think Scott Smith knocks out "Short Fuse".  No reason why, but if I can get it, I will put my money on Smith.  Herman is a little more hpe that skill.  I think just because of who he train(s)(ed) with.

 

The Ortiz/Evans fight on the next card, I am going with Ortiz.  Evans has not fought anyone near Tito's level yet.  I think Evans will be at or near the top eventually, but not now against Tito.  Both will be excellent shape, push the pace, look for takedowns.  Rashad has a small advantage striking, not because of the leg kick though, because of the speed of his hands, but nothing Tito should be too worried about.  So it will go to the ground where Tito is more polished.  Evans still has a hard time passing guard and getting into a more dominant position.  He just lays in the guard.  Tito can knock you from the guard if he cant get side control or mount you.  Tito didnt pay $??? milllion of dollars for De La Hoya's property up at Big Bear to just fade away.  Tito UD.