This Weekend

-2.9 posted plays

This big weekend cant start quick enough. I have already hit this over pretty hard.


Forrest/Mora Over 10.5 (-170) 3.4 units to win 2
Forrest/Mora Over 10.5 (-200) 4 units to win 2

I've already written about this fight and I'm sticking by it. I just don't think Forrest has it, talk aside to send the latin fake to a stretcher. Age has started to catch up with Forrest who has never been a huge lights out guy anyway. I think there is a much bigger chance that this is a competitive fight, likely with Forrest doing enough to win. I think they will both stay on their feet until the end without many scare points. This should provide a solid sleeping aid after what will likely be a loud Kelly Pavlik KO.

 
My other leans are to Williams and to Lopez, but I am holding off for two different reasons:

I'm holding off on Williams simply because I need to see him Friday. Weight drain is the only thing keeping me from hammering the Punisher (even though I was a Quintana winner in the first fight) and I've gotta see Friday go off smoothly.

With Lopez, I'm going to wait on the decision props and also see where the straight bet line heads.

Looking forward to a great week of action and hopefully we will get some good discussion going on these fights.

I think your Forrest/Mora over bet is pretty safe. I will put a small bet on Mora but he gets hit more often these day's and I expect him to get outpointed.

I will be betting Williams. I believe Williams was very overconfident in their first fight. He had just slayed the big, bad dragon Margarito, what could Quintana possibly do?  I think Quintana fought the best fight he could the first time but Williams didn't. Williams can improve on the first fight but the first fight is as good as it gets for Quintana.

I will be betting Lopez but Ponce makes a habit of beating guy's who are faster and more skilled with his punch and chin.

I wanted to bet on Mack tomorrow but not at -310 odds. I thought the odds would have been much closer for this fight.

Good luck all.

 

I agree on Williams, he just didnt bring it in the first fight whatever reason and ran into a live dog. I don't envision him doing it again especially against Quintana, who really doesnt do anything exceptionally well. He's a solid guy but really a B- level fighter. Williams, a motivated, bigger B+ fighter should be able to do what he should have done already and that is outclass Quintana.

As for Lopez, I'm going to be scared of PDL's power the whole night. I just think the kid is better and on this night the skill, speed, movement and selective offense will prove to be too much for him. I think he can outwork him and outclass him. One thing is for sure, its going to be a hell of a fight.

 
Yusaf Mack vs Judah OVER 9.5 @ 1.76 Small/Med bet

Daniel Judah has a poorish KO percentage and from what I gather Yusaf will box and not brawl this time.
Judah has only been KO'ed by Darnel Wilson (big slugger) and though Mack has been stopped both of his loses, he was weightdrained in both fights.
So, I figure Judah, fighting at home will be more concerned with staying around for a shoddy judgement rather than trying to bang (hes not a banger anyway).
It figures, the fight should go the distance.

all right, here goes for a big weekend. . .

Herman Ngoudjo (-240) over M'Baye 2.4 units to win 1

I'm loving this line movement. I'm not going to say M'Baye is shot, but I dont think he is on the level of Ngoudjo. I expect Ngoudjo's confidence and activity to bank many, many rounds in this fight and likely win a decision. That said, I can even see a scenario where it just becomes too much and he stops the durable Mbaye based on pure accumulation. The -105 decision bet is a fine play, but I'll pay the 240 just in case. Throw in the large home court advantage here and Ngoudjo is value here.

Paul Williams (-155) over Quintana 3.10 units to win 2

I was a proud backer of Quintana at +675ish in the first fight. I thought he won the fight but it was tight. Williams did almost nothing right and I feared that he had eeked out some close rounds to retain. Now the price drops all the way to -155 and I think the only play is Williams. He will need to do two things to win: control distance and score on a hittable Quintana. He has done this in almost all of his fights except for the last. Some believe CQ has his number, I think it was a bad night. Williams is the better guy and usually the better guy wins the rematch. He'll do that tomorrow.

JM Lopez (+145) over Ponce De Leon 1 unit to win 1.45
Lopez by 12 rd decision (+350) .5 units to win 1.75 units

Am I scared of a wide looping power shot by Ponce stopping this before it starts? Absolutely. But, if this is any sort of a boxing match, I think Lopez will be too good. Ponce is exciting and dangerous, but hes not the boxer that Lopez already is at his young age. If this goes deep, as I expect it to, I like the underdog to outmove, outland and outbox Ponce and could see him winning a decision.

Gary Lockett wins in rds 1-3 (+6175) .1 units to win 6.175
Gary Lockett wins in rds 4-6 (+6225) .1 units to win 6.225

This is a throwaway ten bucks but Pavlik has been hurt in many fights early to the likes of McKart, Zertuche and Zuniga recently. Lockett's a joke and I'll still root for Pavlik but at 60-1, what the hell?

Mora/Forrest goes the distance (+145) 1.45 units to win 1

Needless to say, I really think this fight goes the distance and am willing to put one more ticket on it.

Huge weekend of action. Good luck to everyone.

Good luck to you especially on that Mora-Forrest over, that line really hasn't moved that much which is kind of a surprise.  Cheers on Ngoudjo. 

Up 1 unit to start the week thanks to a workmanlike performance by Ngoudjo. Honestly, the door was open for MBaye with the cut but he just never capitalized. The Montreal homecourt was certainly a nice comfort. There was more life in that building than I think there has in all the FNF's over the last three months. I had it 116-113 for Herman.

Don't screw me over Mora.

Williams to win @ 1.68 Med
Ponce to win @ 1.53 Med
Vernon to win @ 1.15 Big
Vernon to by Dec @ 1.70 Small
Pavlik to win (duh) @ 1.05 VBig

Matt Hughes @ 1.50 Med
Marquardt @ 1.53 Med, surprised it hasn't been pounded
Tavares @ 1.22 Big
Carneiro @ 1.22 VBig
Werdum @ 2.35 VSmall
Day @ 3.75 $1 just to see If I was right

 

Lopez supporters are wrong, Ponce will pound him sometime, I think.

On reflection I turned half my "Vernon straight" bet money into the over before clicking em in.
I think its much more sensible. Gl

Gosh what a lousy weekend this will be...

Yeah, rough UFC card for you.

Well hopefully your boxing bets go a bit better.  Good luck to you on all except DPDL.

You definitely were fave friendly across the board, that is not a good thing from my casual observance of the UFC.

YEE HAW!!!

Great week my man.  Very nice as Borat would say Wee.  I was on Lopez also, but by decision.  I really didn't think he could stop DPDL especially not in the 1st round.

Hak, good work to you also.  Glad that over came in for you, strong take and nice cash.

Coweringbeef, rough stuff.

+8.75 units for the week.
+5.85 posted plays

I knew Forrest had lost a step, but I didn't think he had lost it that badly. Forrest admitting he was winded in the 5th round was a shock and Mora capitalized. Gotta hand it to the guy, he made almost the entire boxing community that has bashed him shut up for at least one night.

The first round KOs were comforting.

Great week, more work to do this summer.