This Weekend

Down 1 unit last week, +34.1 for the year.

Lets get it started. . .

Williams/Kolle Under 7.5 (-165) 3.3 units to win 2.

The weight move shouldnt be an issue for Paul with his frame. I think he'll get by Kolle fairly easily. This is a tune up and they aren't even sugar coating it. I think he will wear down Kolle quickly, who doesn't have the skill to compete at this level. This is a step up from Matt Vanda. You can be as tough as they come but thats not going to be enough to deal with Williams' class. The weight helps him, the skill helps more and Williams wins ITD.

I like the play.  You gotta think if Ward was able to get him out of there Williams will be equally successful. 

Nice hit Hak.  Wasn't any drama there to sweat out.  I think that right hook had Kolle back in Minnesota for a second there.

Thanks, I actually thought Kolle would at least be a live body in there. I wonder who Williams is going down to 147 to fight in November.

One play so far for Sat.

Zuniga/Inkin Over 9.5 Rounds (-195) 3.90 units to win 2

I don't think this is as much of a boxer-puncher type fight as many people think. Yes Zuniga is Colombian and has been in wars with Oganov and Pavlik, but in many of his other fights, he hasn't looked to brawl. I don't think he will look to or even be able to against Inkin who is a talented boxer that can move. I don't like giving the 2-1 with two guys capable of stopping people, but in this case, I think it is a competitive fight that goes the distance. I'd love to get Zuniga by decision at long odds if those props hit.

Parlaying all the overs in Germany:

JC Gomez/Virchis Over 9.5 (-160)
Jones/Arslan Over 9.5 (-225)
Inkin/Zuniga Over 9.5 (-195)

1 unit to win 2.55

The only one that gives me pause is Gomez/Virchis but I think Gomez will easily be able to outbox Virchis and won't allow this one to end early.

One crazy parlay:

JC Gomez/Virchis Over 9.5 (-160)
Jones/Arslan Over 9.5 (-225)
Inkin/Zuniga Over 9.5 (-195)
Mosley ITD (-134)
Forbes by 12 rd decision (+946)

.25 units to win 16

More to come . . .

 

I don't think I would even bother trying to make 147 again if I were Williams.  Stay at 154 for 1-2 more fights then look for a showdown with Pavlik at 160.

Good luck on your other plays.

A lock?  Really.  Those are some scary words especially against a talented guy like Jones.

Wish I faded the world and played Escobedo but didn't have the balls. Couple more plays for tomorrow though I am disappointed there were no decision lines in the German fights:

Mosley ITD (-110) 2.20 units to win 2

It's just the most likely result in this fight. Mosley was hitting Cotto flush with shots and if he does that tomorrow, he will easily stop Mayorga at some point. Mayorga is going to look to get lucky early and will leave himself open to be countered. Mosley isn't a one punch knockout artist and that is the reason this line is manageable but Mayorga's style makes him tough to stop these days and Mosley has just enough left for one last moment in the sun here.

Mosley wins in Rds 4-6 (+580) .5 units to win 2.9
Mosley by KO Rd. 7 (+1500) .2 units to win 3
Mosley by KO Rd 8 (+1400) .2 units to win 2.8

If Mosley is going to stop him, it would more likely be earlier than the champ. rounds because 10-12 he'd be happy to cruise to a UD. He'll hopefully end it before that point.

Inkin/Zuniga Over 9.5 Rds (-185) 3.7 units to win 2

Putting more on this. The more Ive looked at this matchup the more certain I become that this eases over.

Just lacking a feel in Forbes/Berto to make any sort of play. Forbes burned me once this year by staying on his feet, I can't bet on him being stopped.

Good luck to everyone tomorrow

Unbeaten super middleweight Denis Inkin (34-0, 24 KOs) claimed the vacant WBO 168lb world championship former held by Joe Calzaghe. Inkin won a twelve round unanimous decision over Fulgencio Zuniga (21-2-1, 18 KOs).

it went the distance.  congrats bro.  excellent call.

Thanks man. Off to a huge start today with that one going the distance and my over-over-over parlay barely hitting with Arslan-Jones barely eeking over. Mosley ITD would give me a great week. Forbes by decision and I can die happy.

Did someone use the term lock?  You know that a no-no when it comes to betting. 

Sounds like Arslan took a beating and a half.

Huge week so far man.  Congrats.

Great week Hak.  Awesome stuff.

+9.4 units for the week. I am just locked in right now. I am making a living capping boxing.  Mosley needed way more time than I would have thought but I will take it considering I accurately called the German fights over.

Boxing is where the money is at and there are multiple cappers here just leading people to the $$. You are all collectively welcome.

Right on Fullbrights, I knew Arslan didn’t have anything but conditioning and a shonky panel but went ahead.

HakAttack

I must applaud you bro.  give credit where credit is due.

Very impressive analysis (in particular the German card).

What I am most impressed by though was the fact that you stayed away from the Berto fight (my big downfall in an otherwise great week).

Many people I respect thought Berto could get the KO.  But it never came.

Sometimes it's the fights that you don't bet that show how smart you really are.

You have proven to be the wise one and the week's big winner.

Thumbs up to you dude.  Keep it rolling.

Good luck all.