Spin's Shotime Card

Holt-Torres is a good match up, and a fight that needed to be made, so why not get in a play?

I'm expecting a more tactical, cautious fight from both men, each having felt the other's power in the first fight. I also feel that Holt is the more talented and accomplished fighter overall, so my picks are Holt -260 and over 9.5 -170, both risking about 1 unit.

While I concede that both men have the power to earn a stoppage, I don't think either man is outclassed to the point that we see an early or even mid round stoppage. I'm concerned that Holt doesn't use an assertive jab and he doesn't throw enough punches overall, but I expect him to do enough to win rounds and earn a decision, if he can stay on his feet. There are a couple other angles influencing my play. I think the odds are a little surprising. Setting the loser of the first fight as a greater than 2-1 favorite in the rematch is a little unusual, and I think it reflects the confidence the books have in Holt. I also think that a close decision will go Holt's way given the improprieties of the first fight and the incentive to possibly make a trilogy.

Good luck to everyone, looking forward to the show.

Good stuff spin, we're on the same page. 
I couldn't agree with you more on the line psychology.  Seems like like the books installed Holt as a moderate fave here b/c he was the de jure winner in Barranquilla shamockery.  Really looking forward to this one this evening, especially after almost falling asleep several times during the Sturm-Griffin webcast.  I think the only thing that kept me awake was the brash tone of the German accouncer's commentary. 

I don't really know what to say about that one. I was clearly dead wrong capping this one as soon as Holt threw that lazy jab and got hammered with a counter right. I'll just be grateful for the lucky stoppage keeping me from losing my entire stake tonight.

Both these guys are fade material for me going forward.

I don't know if it was a lucky stoppage so much as Torres having a dumb fightplan.  Holt wasn't really hurt, and you're going to get KTFO'd if you charge at an elite-level fighter the way Torres did.

Agree. It was pretty clear that there were going to be opportunities to put the pillow chinned Holt on the canvas more, there was no reason for him to charge like that and get caught. I hope we see a rubber match.

I think Holt was fortunate to push Torres to the ropes with an inadvertent head butt before landing that monstrous right hand. I'm not convinced that Torres will ever be the same fighter again, but I'd be willing to fade him again in a 3rd fight.