Spin's Saturday Plays

Not much time for write-ups since I'm trying to catch the full undercard tonight at the Hard Rock. Largest play is AA, smallest is RM.

Abraham -185 and -4.5 (-115).
I like the better overall boxer and I am very concerned about Miranda's diminished state post Pavlik. I also think the books have tipped their hand with this line holding steadily near 2-1. I might have thought harder about it if they had opened closer to even money.

Marquez by decision (+750)
Long shot in the dark here. I was impressed by RM's performance against McKart, and despite Lorenzo's great amateur pedigree, I'm not convinced he's worthy of heavy chalk yet. Kelly's team certainly didn't seem to think he was a severe threat in trying to line up a fight.

Arreola to win ITD (-125)
I'm really upset with myself for not grabbing the Arreola side early in the week at close to even money. He sits at almost 3-1 favored now, and I feel almost like a dope for playing this prop, but I still see value on the KO. If we go to the cards, they'll probably have to cook the books for him to win, so maybe this is essentially the same play.

I agree on Abraham, against you on the other two.  Regardless, I think we see some action filled fights tonight.

You wrote the script LMS, hell of a night.

question, what round did the abraham match end in?

i had the under 9.5 and my book marked it as a loss

Thanks guys, really strong weekend for boxing. I was surprised at how shot Miranda was, but he's even more done than I had imagined. Miranda has been a spent force since Pavlik ruined him.

I also never dreamed that Marquez would win such a razor thin decision, even though I saw him as the clear victor. Marquez really deserves it, but I hope it doesn't earn him a shot at Pavlik or Abraham.

I agree, lets let Marquez get his payday, let Pavlik have a homecoming fight in Ohio and all look forward to the showdown early next year.

I just hope his big payday isn't too expensive, but I'm sure he does want it badly. Marquez is a really nice guy and deserves another title shot.

Great week LMS.  Props on all those.  I still can't believe that Raul won not saying that Lorenzo is all that great, but I thought Marquez was pretty shot.  Awesome stuff.