Smart Bets Saturday March 22

Hi, guys this is my first Smart Bets post on this forum,which you must follow to make money.

 

 

Katsidis vs Casamayor

 

Im not gonna bet on the moneyline here,because there are a lot of risk with both guys.Casamayor is old now and the way he fought last time wasnt the best of him .This is a clear sign that Casamayors career will not last a lot.Hes facing a strong young fighter on Katsidis that likes to put pressure and throw lots of punches with good power.But his defense is bad and tends to cut easily.I never recommend betting against a young opponent, thats why this fight is very hard to handicap.But im pretty sure this fight will go the distance.

 

I dont see a ko or tko here.Casamayor doesnt have the power to hurt Katsidis, and his work rate is not the same anymore,he will be boxing from the outside all night long and Katsidis will be trying to ko Casamayor and try to land a big shot on him but Casamayor experience will be the edge to survive 12 rounds.Guys this will not be a fight like graham fight,and Casamayor knows he needs to outbox Katsidis to win today.

 

Katsidis-Casamayor over 10.5    2 units(-185 )  to win 1.15 units

Casamayor by desicion    1 unit (+348)  to win 3.48 units

Katsidis by desicion  1 unit (+165) to win 1.65 units

 

Good luck tonight,and lets make money!!

Risky at over (-185): Katsidis has been cut a lot. Casamayor is a dirty fighter and you will see clinches and headbutts, also due to Casamayor's akward southpaw style with Katsidis charging forward. There are the conditions for cuts and swelling for Katsidis the longer it goes.

 

Thanks Fullbrights, there,s a good chance that this ends in a draw,hmmm tempting

That's hard to say. Casamayor is dirty, and if at anytime in the fight where he feels like he isn't effective and might absorb punishment, don't rule out a low blow. He's never been knocked out, and I don't think he wants to be. I just think it's to much to risk at that price. Anyways, Good Luck!

 

Well, anything can happend, but not this time, im pretty sure.Looks like koboxingpicks.com has the draw, they say the draw will win today.

There was cuts, swelling, and low blows as I stated. Also, knockdowns. The over was simply too high with all those variables.

 

Oh well,it was close lol. I feel i had the right picks.The cuts werent a factor in the fight.What a shot.It was a great fight.

It was a great fight, but you have to include all those possibilities when paying -185 for an over. Just remember, sometimes you don't even need a TKO, or KO. Stoppages and DQ's can happen for other reason besides injuries, such as Oliver McCall and "No Más".