Shawn Porter +380

Porter is very skilled and durable, and I know Devon has a little bit of quit in him, so if the fight gets too tough I expect to see him ease up on the peddle just enough to let Porter into and steal the fight.

Porter has fought weak competition. Alexander has fought top level competition, and his loss to Bradley (and to Mattthysse in most opinions) did seem to flatten his heals and discourage him instead of bringing out the best in him. Hard to say without reviewing Porter's fights and seeing if he his total skillset can fight top-level and if he is a good match-up for Alexander. If he can't frustrate Alexander, then Alexander seems to finish solid, as opposed to when he finds it tough (like you said), and somewhere it appears he goes through the motions and wants to quit. Good point, I will take a look myself a Porter's opponents that had somewhat of Devon's physical skills.

If Porter had any losses, I would say that this is a money fight, and Porter winning would only hurt future earning for the majority involved (like Lucas vs Devon, Pacquiao vs Marquez III, Bradley vs Pacquiao {only because Manny had losses, and Bradley had no losses, otherwise a different ending} and so on). Porter although an unknown to general public. Good point though... usually when a fighter has not fought any top-level fighters especially with consistency, there usually is a good reason. That doesn't mean he can't, especially like you stated against a guy who seems to have the quit in him. They probably figured Alexander despite his athletic ability would be the easiest fighter mentally within the top ranks. GL!

 

A year ago his Draw against Julio Diaz, although he won his rematch his last bout. One thing I remember was Porter keeps his left hand a little low, then after a combo, he leaves it low. Alexander being a southpaw, I assume with his advantage in size and reach, and I feel also speed and power, his jab should limit much of Porter's action although Alexander is known for being less of a traditional fighter following the jab, and more lead shots. This could play more to Porter's advantage if Alexander looks past him and doesn't keep a consistent work ethic in the jab department. Any thoughts regarding this?

shawn will throw more but devons promoted by gbp so porters probably going to have to outland alexander by 70+ punches to get a decision. also, he has a tendency to cut and already has scar tissue and the fight is orthodox/southpaw  i think the fight is going to be close but betting against gbp and their independently contracted two judges is not a good idea in the long run.

This is a error in pricing made by the casino. +500 is just rediculous. It's hard to say if stylistically there is an advantage either way but SP is very experienced and is a small target. He's also an ex sparring partner for Pacman which has proven to make other fighters better (see Rey Beltran). I wouldn't be swayed by

the long odds. I think it's just a mistake and Vegas does make mistakes. Maybe not so much in boxing but they do.

Quote Originally Posted by LarryParker:

This is a error in pricing made by the casino. +500 is just rediculous. It's hard to say if stylistically there is an advantage either way but SP is very experienced and is a small target. He's also an ex sparring partner for Pacman which has proven to make other fighters better (see Rey Beltran). I wouldn't be swayed by

5dimes opened it at +385/-485.  It's currently +500/-700

I dont think Porter is a live dog. Think Devon does everything better and even if Devon has a bad night I cant see Porter getting a decision therefore there is no value in Porter

Shawn Porter is an ugly, ugly fighter, and he's winning this fight.  Alexander has no game plan for the rough and tumble.

I don't know how anybody could be watching this fight over the Kirkland/Tapia fight that just ended. WOW

Shawn Porter =

Porter is a much improved fighter. Alexander fought an incredibly stupid fight. He fought Porter in the trenches. Alexander has always had a brain the size of a peanut.

Apparently, Devon's athletic ability is not able to overcome his lack of mental awareness and toughness. Too bad with a fighter that has very good athletic abilities. Like I said, I probably wouldn't have time to watch previous Porter fights again, and I didn't. 

LarryParker: Good hit! I remember as a kid my father use to tell me in the NFL, when 2 bad teams play, take the points as you can't predict with enough accuracy what a bad team might do. Alexander is mentally a horrid fighter, and betting on him is always risking. Apparently you used it to your advantage and it worked. BTW = I was curious regarding prop outs, and what was  the odds on Porter to win by decision? Just curious as I was in a discussion about finding value and the best way to wager for the highest +EV and also keeping a low volatility.

nice win, larry

Alexander clearly lost that fight.

Well thanks for all the opinions and feedback. I was fairly confindent with taking this shot.

FIXER I wasn't concerned with any props, the +380 on Porter was sufficient, I was offered +400 at fight time by my apparently overly stingy book but passed and stood pat, though tempted not to. I'm sure Porter by decision was probably around +750 or so. 

FWIW I stopped being high on Devon immediately after the Kotelnik fight. Devon is just overrated, that's all, and his lack of skill set was exposed in that fight.

NICE HIT!