Sergio Gabriel Martínez vs Matthew Macklin

Matthew Macklin vs Sergio Gabriel Martínez
WBC Diamond Middleweight Title -12 Rounds
Madison Square Garden - New York, New York

Martínez (-1200) vs Macklin(+800)
Total Rounds (Under -110) 9.5 (Over -110)

Although this will be the 3rd straight European fighter the Argentinean has faced, at least Macklin faced a known top contender. He lost a SD to Felix Sturm. If I was Sturm, and I saw who the judges were, I think I might have passed on the fight.
Judges: Levi Martinez 115-113 | Roberto Ramirez Sr. 112-116 | Jose Ignacio Martinez 112-116
Two out of three had the same last name as Sergio... although it may have been of no consequence, having any judge scoring is risky enough, yet having possible family members scoring (joking).

I found an interesting prop. It was interesting because of the payout. In other sports when my line is extremely different, I take the view that offshore and vegas no something I don't. When it comes to parimutuel pools, I don't care how different my line is because it's people against each other and the house takes a percentage (poker, horse racing, etc...). Boxing is not the same, but it is a far cry from NFL linesmakers.
He rarely posts anymore on Covers but occasionally reads is Strykor. He gave me this play last year.
"I Didn't do a deep study like usual on this fight.

RUSLAN PROVODNIKOV vs MAURICIO HERRERA.

Herrera +800 (0.5 Units)
Over 7 Rnds -130 (2.5 Units)

I feel an over, Ruslan has fought many journey-men. So I don't know if too much of that will slow him down. That's why the over and Herrera for a shot."

I remember him stating that Herrera was 50/50 to win. My +EV (+800) or 8X, that's a big overlay! I don't bet overlays just on odds, because boxing is corrupt, anything can happen, and typically if I felt a fighter would win 20% of the time, and lose 80% of the time, line without any vig would be 4-1 (or -400 or +400). Typical betting theory states betting any overlay with +EV will show profit in the long run... the problem is that run circles the earth and more. So if I was getting +600 (an EV +50%), I would pass.
Back to Martinez. He is over -1000 favorite, and the props for the fight seem slightly out of order. I like one play currently but I will probe deeper into it is:

Martinez Wins By 12 Round Decision (+230).

I will do a follow-up as there are several fights on the 16th as well as the 17th.

Anyone with any thoughts (opinions, analysis, breakdowns, etc..) please twist and shout'em out!

I think Macklin stays with him in this fight.  I like the over.  Sergio is getting older and isn't very active.  I know he started his career late but late 30's is late 30's.  Macklin won't get stopped in this fight.  Plus money on Sergio is a good deal in my opinion.  I will have a little on that.  Over 9.5 is safe though.  

I just figured that once it goes 8 rounds, it will reach the scorecards (not including cut, swelling, etc...). If Sergio doesn't get to him by then, and being a fighter based mostly on physical attributes and less technique and strategy, if he can't hurt Macklin by 2/3rds throughout the fight, he won't catch him late. Even though Sergio has stamina, here in shows a major difference between survival stamina, off-and-on performance throughout the round giving the fighter a chance to win the late ones, and then finishing stamina as a fighter can stop his opponent wielding speed and power as it were the early rounds for him but late for his opponent. Sergio is the on-and-off doing enough to win late!

You make too many god damn threads

Tone it down a bit

For a second I thought it said to many good damn threads. OK!