Saturday Picks (10/27/07)

YTD: 21 plays, +15.02 units

Sebastian Sylvester vs. Simone Rotolo
Under 9.5 (-120)
1.2 units

Sylvester seems to be stepping down a bit in competition following a terrific TKO victory over Amin Asikainen in June.  Asikainen had given Sylvester the only loss of his career in 2006, but Sylvester got his revenge in resounding fashion a little over a year later.  Sylvester enters this fight on a streak of three straight late TKOs, and he's picked an opponent who can likely make it a fourth.  Rotolo's career record (27-2) doesn't look bad, but it's worth noting that he was KO'd in his only two losses.  The most recent loss came in 2004 against Hamlet Petrosyan, who is not known for his punching power (9 KOs in 24 career wins).  Rotolo waited 1.5 years to come back from that devastating loss.  Subsequently, he logged a total of 12 rounds in three victories between June and October, 2006, and Saturday marks his first fight in over a year.  I just wonder whether the 31-year-old Rotolo has the stamina and will to go deep into this bout.  In his 29 career fights, he's only gone into the 10th round in three of them.  There's no reason to expect a whole lot out of Rotolo tomorrow, which makes this fight a good under play.

I agry. Nice effort on the research side of Rotolo A2C.

GLA!
bigeiii

Like the play and your reasoning.  My books aren't offering an O/U for the fight.  The two times I have seen Sylvester I wasn't that impressed with his ability to get a guy out of there though, but all I know about Rotolo is what I have read.  Just a heads up streamtvnow is showing this fight if you are a member along with Byrd-Povetkin live tomorrow.

Good Luck

Thanks, FB.  I actually joined when you mentioned watching european fights a few months ago.  Sucks that we can't get SKY, but I'm glad we get the German telecasts.  Leaning towards a Povetkin stoppage, but not confident enough to make it a play.

Edison Miranda vs. Henry Porras
Under 8.5 (-130)
1.3 units

Hard hitting Colombian Edison "Pantera" Miranda returns to the ring Tuesday night against aging Costa Rican Henry Porras in a fight that has knockout written all over it. After getting KO'd in the 7th round by current world middleweight champion Kelly Pavlik back in May, Miranda now finds himself moving up to super middleweight in what looks to be a potential slugfest.  Miranda's record is a respectable 28-2, with an impressive 24 of those wins coming by KO.  Many expected Miranda to knock out Pavlik, as Miranda was offered around -185 with an under 8.5 rounds proposition priced around -150.  Now the Colombian finds himself in an fight with very similar odds, although this time out Miranda's chances look considerably better.  The 36 year-old Porras has a respectable record, with 33 wins (25 by KO), 6 losses and a draw.  To his discredit, Porras has been knocked out nearly every time he has stepped up in class. Against fellow knockout artists like Braehmer, Froch and Kessler, Porras failed to survive 9 rounds.  Miranda is on the level of these 3 and I expect a similar result in this fight. The Colombian's only losses have come at the hands of champions Pavlik and Arthur Abraham.  While Miranda has recently been fighting at the highest level,  Porras has stepped backwards, facing unknown opponents like Engel Rosales and Moises Rodriguez. There is simply a huge gap in class between Pantera and Porras and the under play offers an affordable way to play Miranda without laying ridiculous chalk. It will be surprising to see this fight go longer than 8 rounds. Miranda is looking to make a statement in his first bout at the super middleweight division and a convincing KO against Porras would go a long way towards re-affirming his credibility.

PLEASE NOTE THAT MIRANDA-PORRAS WILL BE HELD ON TUESDAY, OCTOBER 30 AND NOT SATURDAY, OCTOBER 27TH.

All signs point to the under here and I may still play it, but where the round prop was set and the odds it were offered just seem to good to be true.  It's a no brainer play, but it just seems a little too good if you know what I mean.

I hear you but feel that Porras has been given too much credit by the oddsmakers and that there is good value on playing the under this weekend, in advance of Tuesday. I expect the price on the under to be near -180 by fight time.

I went ahead and played the under at -155 light.  I keep getting a whiff of a fishy smell from this line though.

Yeah, you can't beat Streamtvnow.  They used to show some UK fights, I remember watching Lynes-Witter on there and Harrison-Williams, but they haven't done one in a while.  You can't beat the televised German cards and all the PPV's.

Sebastian Sylvester vs. Simone Rotolo
Under 9.5 (-120)
- 1.2 units

Rotolo really came to fight, as he proved me wrong for questioning his will and fitness.  Sylvester won a split decision despite being outworked in the second half of the fight.  Even though Rotolo had obvious flaws in his defensive abilities (Sylvester routinely connected with flush shots in the first half of the fight), Rotolo was too slick with his movement for Sylvester to ever have a chance at inflicting punishing combos.  Rotolo was knocked down in the 4th, but he didn't seem hurt at all, as he had just been caught with a single blow.  Sylvester doesn't have much firepower behind his punches, and you have to question Sylvester's status as a contender in the middleweight division after he was lucky to beat a guy who had never fought outside of Italy. 

Edison Miranda vs. Henry Porras
Under 8.5 (-130)
+1 unit  

YTD: 32.51 units risked, +14.82 units