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Posted: #1
Fairly large card today from around the world. As always, lines are courtesy of the fine folks at 5dimes...

Stanyslav Kashtanov, -300, 9 units to win 3.
Mariusz Wach ITD, +1129, 3 units to win  33.87
Taylor/Chakhkiev over 5.5, -155, 7.75 units to win 5.
Barros/Garcia over 9.5, +140, 5 units to win 7
Lara ITD, -110, 22 units to win 20.
Moreno via decision, +202, 5 units to win 10.1
Casarez/Angulo under 7.5, -270, 8.1 units to win 3


This week is very interesting to me, as I feel like I'm being forced to pick decisive results given the styles and/or lines of the fights. 

With that being said, I feel there is some very good value in Lara ITD. It's probably my favorite play, even though Lara isn't really a big puncher. That's fine, because Martirosyan isn't that good. 

He's sloppy and has been caught and dropped in exchanges by far inferior fighters than Lara. His footwork is sloppy and he turns into a mess when even moderate pressure is applied, regardless of the opponent. While Lara is a classic counter puncher, I feel he'll be able to dictate the pace and terms of this fight. Not a good thing for Martirosyan, as this is going to be target practice for Lara. 

Lara has a chance to make a statement here against a vastly inferior opponent, regardless of what it looks like on paper. I'm expecting him to get it done in a big way. 
 
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Posted: #2
thanks for the breakdown on the Lara fight Walk. good luck.
Melv
 
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Posted: #3

good luck, walk.

just hope that the fight doesnt turn into one where vanes knows he cant win, decides to fight safe where a win is just making it to the final bell.

 
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Posted: #4
No problem Melv. You know Qncy? That is a valid concern. However, I'm not sure Vanes has that quality built into him at this point in his career. He hasn't been defeated, so I'm not sure he'll ever go into self-preservation mode. I'm betting on him just getting nailed repeatedly, eventually hurt, subsequently stopped. 
 
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Posted: #5
I got the epix free 2 week trial and plan on putting small wager on Wach as well. if you go to epixhd.com you will be able to watch the Helenius and Klit fights for free. not sure if you knew.
 
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Posted: #6
Walk: Always respect your opinions. Any value in taking Moreno +135, even though I'm losing more than .75 on the dollar, my local doesn't offer those types of props unless its a big fight. Same scenario for the Lara fight any value in taking Under 9.5 +130? Look forward to hearing your thoughts.
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by CurtisSumpter:

Walk: Always respect your opinions. Any value in taking Moreno +135, even though I'm losing more than .75 on the dollar, my local doesn't offer those types of props unless its a big fight. Same scenario for the Lara fight any value in taking Under 9.5 +130? Look forward to hearing your thoughts.

Absolutely. The Lara/Martirosyan in particular, as IF Martirosyan was going to win it would probably be by some sort of fluky KO. Nothing wrong with simply taking Moreno too, you never know about cuts, DQs, etc. In fact, Mares was cut badly against Agbeko. Never know when old cuts/scar tissue can cause an early stoppage.

Good luck tonight. 


 
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Posted: #8
Adding: Hawk/Cleverly under 9.5, +120, 5 units to win 6
            Zaleta/Santa Cruz under 9.5, -185, 9.25 units to win 5. 
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by walktheline:

Fairly large card today from around the world. As always, lines are courtesy of the fine folks at 5dimes...

Stanyslav Kashtanov, -300, 9 units to win 3.
Mariusz Wach ITD, +1129, 3 units to win  33.87
Taylor/Chakhkiev over 5.5, -155, 7.75 units to win 5.
Barros/Garcia over 9.5, +140, 5 units to win 7
Lara ITD, -110, 22 units to win 20.
Moreno via decision, +202, 5 units to win 10.1
Casarez/Angulo under 7.5, -270, 8.1 units to win 3


This week is very interesting to me, as I feel like I'm being forced to pick decisive results given the styles and/or lines of the fights. 

With that being said, I feel there is some very good value in Lara ITD. It's probably my favorite play, even though Lara isn't really a big puncher. That's fine, because Martirosyan isn't that good. 

He's sloppy and has been caught and dropped in exchanges by far inferior fighters than Lara. His footwork is sloppy and he turns into a mess when even moderate pressure is applied, regardless of the opponent. While Lara is a classic counter puncher, I feel he'll be able to dictate the pace and terms of this fight. Not a good thing for Martirosyan, as this is going to be target practice for Lara. 

Lara has a chance to make a statement here against a vastly inferior opponent, regardless of what it looks like on paper. I'm expecting him to get it done in a big way. 


Love the Lara play and the Moreno play.

The only thing I'm concerned about is the refs rewarding Mares for being the "aggressor" and he's the more popular fighter. I think Moreno is one of the most pure boxers in the game today and he has a style that kind of reminds me of Whitaker.

I think Moreno wins a clear decision but I wouldn't be surprised if he was robbed
 
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Posted: #10
Adding: Moreno via decision, +200, 10 units to win 20.
 
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Posted: #11
Stanyslav Kashtanov, -300, 9 units to win 3. 
Mariusz Wach ITD, +1129, 3 units to win  33.87
Taylor/Chakhkiev over 5.5, -155, 7.75 units to win 5. 
Barros/Garcia over 9.5, +140, 5 units to win 7
Lara ITD, -110, 22 units to win 20. No Action
Moreno via decision, +202, 5 units to win 10.1 
Casarez/Angulo under 7.5, -270, 8.1 units to win 3 
Hawk/Cleverly under 9.5, +120, 5 units to win 6 
 Zaleta/Santa Cruz under 9.5, -185, 9.25 units to win 5. 
Moreno via decision, +200, 10 units to win 20. 

-1 unit on the week.


 
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Posted: #12

nice to see that your book graded the lara itd as a no action. many books, and those in las vegas, wouldve graded the draw as a loss.

pinnacle will be grading my pac/jmm as a no action as well if the fight ends in a draw.

 
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Posted: #13

nice to see that your book graded the lara itd as a no action. many books, and those in las vegas, wouldve graded the draw as a loss.

pinnacle will be grading my pac/jmm as a no action as well if the fight ends in a draw.

 
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by Qncyk1:

nice to see that your book graded the lara itd as a no action. many books, and those in las vegas, wouldve graded the draw as a loss.

pinnacle will be grading my pac/jmm as a no action as well if the fight ends in a draw.


"Technical" draws receive refunds, but a full-length draw would not have. Any straight wager on either guy got refunded too. From what I understand, that's one of the major differences between "UK" style books and US style books is the grading of draws. Basically, you get fucked on the draw at European books.
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