Plays for the weekend

All plays and units wagered posted
2006 Results (March-July): +19.2 units (+$1,920)
Last Week: +1.68 units (+$168)
2007 to date: +36.98 units (+$3,698)

An interesting board this weekend, a lot of heavy faves/dogs.  There is only one fight on the board where the favorite is less than -500 (Napa-Powers).  I have played a trifecta of dogs so far all at thegreek; there + odds are much better than 5dimes this week.  This may be it for me this weekend, I'm not really liking anything else.

.75 of a unit on Conyers (+650) vs Kirkland
One thing Conyers can do is punch and Kirkland can be touched.  I know that Kirkland has been getting better sparring in Cali, but his defense is average at best.  Of course his offense is well above par.  This should be a firefight and Conyers will be able to land.  Even a hurt Said was able to buzz Kirkland a couple of times last time out.  I banked on Conyers upsetting the odds his last time out on Shobox and I am doing the same for this one.

1 unit on Maldonado (+450) vs Donaire
If you look at common opponents, you would be thinking are you out of your mind, but bear with me.  Maldonado had his moments against Vic, but really could never figure out the awkward southpaw.  Donaire won't be as tough to figure out.  Plus, his draw against Mijares sure looks good now.  Donaire on the other hand was the perfect foil for Vic, I even thought so before the fight; I played him to win by decision at astro + odds.  Of course he did a bit better then just winning a decision.  I am banking that Donaire will struggle with Maldonado's style much like he did against Harutyunyan on Shobox and won't do enough to get the verdict this time.

.50 of a unit on Singsurat (+1000) vs Arce
More a throwaway value bet than anything.  Of course Singsurat's recent track record would suggest he doesn't have much of a chance here just like the odds do, but I have heard the term "shot" in the same sentence as Arce from a couple of people who saw him training for this one.  One shot was all that saved him against Rojas.  Singurat does hold a win over a far lesser 112 lb version of Manny P. 8 years ago on a body shot.  In reality Singsurat faces an uphill battle here, but I am willing to take a chance that the whispers are true and Singsurat knows this is a very big opportunity.  We all know Arce isn't hard to touch up.

I wouldn't bet much on Arce.  His fight with the kid Rojas had him dominated until he landed that shot.  Rojas got cocky.

I didn't take Arce.  He is -1600 and -1375 at thegreek and 5dimes respectively; that's your style not mine.

I agree on the Rojas fight; that's why above I stated that one shot saved him.

You have to think that Top Rank knows what they are doing sticking their potential cash cow in there with the hometown guy Sanchez.  I don't think he will struggle too much, I see him winning a 8-2 type decision or wearing Sanchez down late with his body work.

I was agreeing with you Fullbrights.  Always looking to start some shit huh? 

Good to see you're not betting Piccirillo :)

Hey Fullbrights, you see that the line's gone up to +700 on Conyers?  I wonder if some chalk-eaters are pounding Kirkland...Do you know anything about Conyers' stoppage loss to Cuevas?  That's what had me concerned about siding with him in a potential super-value play.

nevermind, you got it at +650, which is close enough to +700.  But 5dimes had it at +550, and it just recently went to +775, so I thought something might be up.

No, what you typed just didn't make much sense. It was like you thought I had bet Arce and were giving reasons why I shouldn't.

Yeah, I didn't expect this late movement upwards or I wouldn't have bet it last night at thegreek.  I just added a little bit on it at +775 at 5dimes, that's it for me this weekend.  That Cuevas loss was after a 16 month layoff .  Don't get me wrong, Kirkland can get Conyers out of there, but Conyers is going to be able to land and he can punch, so at these odds it's worth a crack.  Kirkland has a lot to offer offensively, but not much defensively.  Even that Midwestern club fighter Lyell showed how Kirkland.

A tad more on Conyers....
.25 of a unit on Conyers (+775)

No Fullbrights.  You saw what you wanted to see.  What really was going on was I was agreeing with you, but you love to start shit every week.

Think what you want.  Reread what you posted and tell me how that I wasn't right in evaluating it that way.

Say someone you saw made a bet that you didn't agree with, wouldn't you say, I wouldn't bet much on "insert fighter" and then give reasoning as to why not.  I don't think I was that off base in interpreting the statement like I did.

Nice work by Angulo, that was quick.

.75 of a unit on Conyers (+650) vs Kirkland
.25 of a unit on Conyers (+775)

At least I got a KD from the dog for my money.  I thought after Conyers dropped Kirkland I was looking good, but Conyers legs were completely done when he went down soon after.  I would have liked to have seen what happened in the 2nd round if he could have gotten his legs back.  Someone will expose Kirkland sooner than later, he doesn't know what the word defense means.  It was worth a stab.  I said it would be a firefight, but even that exceeded my expectations.  Wow, 2 fights on Shobox tonight and only 2 rounds.

Any feel on Tarver - Santiago Over 9.5 at even money?

Tarver has had a pretty good career, but maybe is on the downward glide. He was a 20-1 favorite in his last bout and did not come stopping his opponent.  Santiago ko'd that same opponent so by that it may be hard for Tarver to stop Santiago.  Tarver is like most aging fighters, if he has the determination, maybe the fight goes under, however I think the over is where I'm putting my cash tonight.

My thoughts exactly. Santiago's no spring ckicken either at 34, but this is his last shot at the big time, and I could see him getting up from a KD or two.

Also, all of Santiago's KO losses were to orthodox fighters. Doesn't mean much, just nice to know.

Who knows with Tarver?  If you look at this fight on paper you would think Tarver gets rid of him tonight.  Santiago has been stopped in all 3 of his losses, 2 of those KO's coming against nobodies.  Erdei is a solid fighter, but he isn't really much of a puncher and he doesn't stop the better (which still isn't much) opposition that he faces.  Tarver is the naturally bigger man here and has a 4.5 inch height advantage.

On the other hand, who knows what Tarver has left.  He appears to have gotten old over night and he doesn't seem to have the pop he used to in his left hand.  Plus, in all honesty Muriqi wasn't much more than a club level fighter; Tarver went down to the wire with him and Muriqi was never in danger of being stopped. 

This is a tough O/U to call in my opinion; you have a fighter who appears to be over the hill facing a fighter who has never made it halfway up the hill.

Better late than never. H.S. then ACC back2back Title games (both winners) have run me for 2 straight 100 yard days.

VF via Decision, The lollipop Cowboy ITD (his guy has been stopped on all L's), & legacy Chavez the II just as a Side.

Kirkland looked wild last nite. & the Jerry chick closed out her Career & my only pending Parlay from last week.


bigeiii

No bark from the dogs this week......
1 unit on Maldonado (+450) vs Donaire
Great fight by Donaire, the most complete performance I have seen him put together.
.50 of a unit on Singsurat (+1000) vs Arce
Hard to tell if a fighter is shot with only 48 seconds of work.  Nice body shot by Arce.

Lost 2.5 units for the week.

My first losing week in quite some time.  Wait, never mind.  I put $3,000 on Calderon to win $300 at the last minute.  J/K Snippets, glad to see Forrest got it done for you.