Plays for the beginning of the 2008 Campaign

All plays and units wagered posted
2006 Results (March-July): +19.2 units (+$1,920)
2007 Results: +42.25 units (+$4,225)
2008: TBD?

Decent slate to start the New Year off, though a lot of lopsided odds. Very light weekend for me, I don't like that much.  I would have probably hopped on the A. Peterson under early on, but the line had dropped too much for my liking once I saw where my books had finally copied the number.

1 unit on Viloria-Bernal Under 7.5 rounds (+180)
Viloria can still punch when he decides to and I think that he will come to make a comeback statement tonight against the 37 year old Bernal.

.20 of a unit on Mesquita ITD (+1155)
Most likely Peterson gets it done by outboxing the brawler, but Mesquita is wild and can punch so I wanted to take a small stab at him catching Peterson's virgin chin with something from left field.

I went ahead and bet Wednesdays matchup from the land of the rising sun at thegreek.

.50 of a unit on Ikehara (+375) vs Sidorenko
I don't know much about Ikehara personally, but having viewed Sidorenko numerous times, he makes a every fight a tough fight and he won't get the benefit of his German stable influencing the judges in Japan.  It's interesting that both Stipe and Wladimir were shipped off to foreign countries to defend their belts by Universum, a rarity indeed.  I wonder who they crossed?

Is anyone else looking forward to Haye-Maccarenelli as much as I am?  That was nice news to start the new year.  I will be looking hard at the under there, I saw where Haye opened up as a -150 fave.

Haye's a -150 fave?  That's great value on Enzo, who seems to be the better boxer.  Also, that's odd that Haye's still fighting at cruiser considering that he announced he was moving up to heavy after the Mormeck fight since it's so hard for him to make weight.

Also, which Peterson under were you liking initially?

Sorry, just reread your post -- A.Peterson.

Yeah, I guess money talked him into staying at cruiser for the fight.  That is a huge fight money wise in the UK, the gate should be huge.

Yeah, A Pete. was the one, but not as much now at even odds. 

"virgin chin"!?! Epic figure of speak. That just made my lexicon Fullbrights.

I had the same wonderment on the possibly lesser Peterson. Though I'm wondering against The Hawaiian Punch as well? (not a play, still thinking about his fight). Though I do likey that Total, as I'm not too sure how much longer he lasts as a quality Contender/Titlest kinda guy.

Rosales as well.

Good call on that near Heavyweight LOW. I 2nd that. Haye may even be the next LL, but smaller at Heavy someday.

GLA!
bigeiii

I also like Mesquita.  Peterson isn't that slick and doesn't have the firepower to keep a motivated Mesquita off of him. I would be very pissed at my promoter if I was Lamont. He is fringe and ready to start getting paid and they set this match up.  Not a risk they should have taken.

Green will knockout the tomato can Williams in a few rounds.  It is just another quick knockout set up for him to try to look good and get Ward or another larger fight. I hate saying under 7.5 rounds at -155 value, but it is what it is.

Malignaggi will struggle against Ngoujdo. Very live dog at +400. Paulie hasn't fought many fast handed fighters that can jab and move. Ngoujdo will have plenty of stamina and could easily see Paulie suffering a loss in a "holdover" fight while awaiting another big name fighter.  Very live dog here.

I don't see Ngoudjo as live at all.  He's not aggressive enough to win rounds against Malignaggi, who's too quick and technically proficient.  Ngoudjo didn't press the action against a faded Castillo, and he barely beat Randall Bailey, who is more of a puncher than boxer.  Malignaggi is in another class.

I agree completely. Unless Paulie has the night from hell, he should be much too slick for Ngoudjo.

1 unit on Viloria-Bernal Under 7.5 rounds (+180)

The Hawaiian Punch didn't get the job done ITD, he was more Hi-C tonight.  I thought for a second that the body shot KD in the 8th with 1:50 left in the round was about to get me a last second cash; it looked like Bernal may stay down and take the count.  There were a couple of times during the fight where I thought if Viloria stepped it up a bit he could get Bernal in trouble, but it was not to be.

I agree with this assessment A2C.  It would really surprise me if Ngoudjo won tomorrow night, but the odds reflect that.  I see a 9-3 or 8-4 decision in Pauli's favor.

Paulie is a protected Italian  fighter with no power who has a huge regional draw. He reminds me of someone from my neighborhood, Paul Spadafora. In fact, doesn't he now hold the title Paul once did? Looked like he belonged after the gutcheck with Cotto.Then again, Paulie wasn't exactly overly impressive against Cherry. Expect more of the same tomorrow night. Unless he has the cards already in his pocket, he is in serious danger of losing a decision in this fight. Was not the correct opponent to put against him while awaiting another big fight. Ngoudjo has value at the price without a doubt. You can't lay the chalk on Paulie or the over. Only play in this match up imo.

.20 of a unit on Mesquita ITD (+1155)
Yep, like I said most likely Peterson out boxes him, but it was worth a shot.  I really thought that Mesquita would have been a bit more reckless knowing that a KO was his only shot.

I don't think we are advocating betting on Paulie or the over.  We are just saying the odds are where they are for a reason and the fight really doesn't have too much value either way.  Paulie is a much better fighter now than Spaddy ever was.  Spaddy held a title at 135, Paulie holds a belt at 140, so no it's not the same belt.  To beat Paulie you have to be able to bring pressure while keeping a high workrate; Ngoudjo may be able to apply pressure, but he won't be effective because he is not active enough.

Protected Italian fighter, huh.   You say that while including the fact that he fought Cotto, who was a monster at 140 and what blew me away is the outcome of that fight wasn't determined after 9 rounds.   Paulie fought his ass off with a broken face and earned mad respect from everyone except  maybe one person.    I'm going to rewatch Ngoudjo Bailey Sat morn before I decide if I want to leave my large Paulie wager at -325, as is.