Pacquiao-Mosley...Where's The Value?

Let me start this thread by stating that I have always been a huge Shane Mosley fan. Unfortunately, the Mosley we see this Saturday night will likely not resemble the younger version in most respects. This older Mosley has lost many of the attributes that allowed him to be the World Champion of prior performances. In a nutshell, I cannot think of any edge I could give him in his match-up with Manny Pacquiao. The only way I could imagine him pulling of the upset would be if Pacman did something incredibly stupid. That would be to come out with wild punches, looking for an early KO & leave himself open in an exchange. But, the odds of that happening are slim to none. The Pacman team are just too smart to employ a foolish strategy. As the fight progresses, Mosley should become less & less effective because of..

1. Stamina problems

2. Making weight issues

3. Just plain age.

So, once the bout enters round 6..It should be all downhill for Mosley. The only question in my mind is... Can he go the distance? I calculate the odds of it to be about 50-50. The only reason i think he has a decent chance to last all 12 rds is because of his incredible heart & savvy ring experience & track record. He knows how to tie up if he senses trouble can find a way to get out of harms way. You know Mosley will feel it's a great moral victory if he can last till the end of the fight.

The odds on the fight going the distance are around + 150. The odds on Pacquiao by decision are +180. The value therefore (if you don't think Mosley will win) seems to be the latter of the 2 props. I want to state unequivocally that I will Not be shocked if Mosley gets stopped. But I only make that an even money prop so I think if your looking for VALUE...... Pacquiao by decision +180 is the way to bet. I'll risk 3 Units ......GLTU!

you are correct Sir--Good Call & GL

Decision 

 MOSLEY'S PROBLEM WOULD BE PACMAN'S JAB HE CALLED SNAP. IT'S A JAB THAT IS QUICK, COMPACT AND POWERFUL. PACMAN HAS IDOLIZE BRUCE LEE AND IMITATE THIS JAB. JUST LOOK AT THE FACES OF HIS  PAST OPPONENTS.

Too drunk too read your write up but I will in the morning

I was really surprised at how good Mosley looked at the weigh-in. Pretty ripped for an older fighter & not drained as much as I expected. I am starting to feel good about not laying the 8-1, as I was originally considering. I still think Pacman has too much speed for Shane, at this stage of their careers. But don't be surprised if Shane starts out strong & takes some of the early rds. I am much less inclined to see this as a total blow-out (after viewing the weigh-in) as I  first suspected. In fact, the younger version of Shane.... I would give a big shot to win. But Father Time plays no favorites & I think that will make the difference in the outcome tonight. The good point is.... We might be in for a much better fight then most at first thought. Don't get me wrong... I still think Pacquiao by decision is the most likely outcome. Time will tell.

Value is a 1-3 round Mosely K.O. after that all pac man

 

I think Shane can look good up until rds 7 or 8. His condition leads me to this conclusion.

Looked more like a sparing session on Pacman's part, but it's easy to criticize when your not the one in the ring. I thought the best thing that happened for the over bettors was when Shane got dropped in rd 3. After that.... He was not taking any mores risks. He just looked to counter ,took zero chances, & did a very credible job at setting a slower pace then Paman would have liked. As for Pacman.... He basically sleepwalked through most of the fight. He had a little trouble getting inside & said Screw it ...I'll coast to an easy decision. I can't say I was unhappy with the outcome ( because I cashed a nice bet at +180 &85) but for most people paying $55 bucks. It must have been a waste of money.

Great write up red, that was quite possibly one of the worst PPV cards ever. Imagine Arce was the savior on the card.. very decent fight being he was about 8-1/ 9-1 dog.

Clearly evident Shane cannot pull the trigger anymore, so many times I saw so many openings and Shane didn't throw, the upper cut and body was open all night he did nothing.

This of course led to the booing and Pac man got VERY reckless TRYING so hard for the crowd and at times made himself look foolish.

Mosley was there to survive and Pac has to accept that and not get reckless because others will use this same tactic against him.

Floyd has been booed quite a few times, so people cannot say anything about this fight being booed.

Only chance this fight had at being good was if Mosley was the Mosley who fought Cotto toe to toe(he doesn't have the fire power anymore)... otherwise it it set up to be a stinker.

Congrats to those who cashed in!