Pacman vs Cotto, Including Undercard

                                  Main Event:

Not sure what I can say that hasn't already been said. However, there are some props I really like.

1. Cotto ahead after 3 rounds, +250 (a ko wins too)

I think it will be Manny that has to adjust to Cotto's jab. If Manny comes out and makes a statement as Roach says they want to do in the first round, Manny might get the worst of them. Other than the Torres fight, Cotto has probably never been behind after 3 rounds in his career.

2. Fight won't start round 9, +107. In Cotto's last 20 fights, only 4 went the distance. Those fights? Mosley, Ndou, Clottey, Malignaggi. Mosley, Ndou, and Clottey have never been knocked out. Malignaggi has only been stopped once. Pacman is blowing people out and the plan seems for him to be come right after Cotto. Don't see it going 12, that's for sure.

                                   Undercard:

Foreman +170. Santos is now 34 and has only fought 15 rounds in the last 4 years combined. If he can't get Foreman out of there early, I'm guessing he'll fade and Foreman banks plenty of rounds on his way to a boring decision. Exactly what he does all the time.

Chavez Jr. under 7.5, -120. Rowland is a hand picked tomato can. No more, no less. He's never fought out of Michigan once. Other than two wins over fighters with a combined record of 19-27 in the last 6 months, he hadn't fought since 2005. Chavez Jr camp picked a guy with no pop that can be attacked without caution. Everything I can find is about how he knows he has to "make a statement" on such a big stage. Yeah, knocking out a tomato can is a way to do that I guess. PLAY OF THE NIGHT.

Karass -135 (expect this to drop even lower)

I'm not overwhelmed by either fighter, but Karass is a much better boxer. Gomez has only went 10 rounds once, against Ben Tackie. I feel his power is very over-rated due to his stoppage of Gatti. Might be a very good fight to open the card.

remember walktheline,,they are not a tomato can until they hit the canvas, you have been kicking around a long time and know that nothing is for certain in our bizness--BOL tonite buddy --Go Manny

Thank you, and best of luck to you as well. I'll be pulling for Cotto but as long as someone wins big I'll be happy. Boxing needs this one to live up to the hype.

walk, I'm with you on the undercard.  I LOVE Karass.  That's my favorite bet of the night.  I don't know what people see when they watch Gomez, but I see one of the slowest welterweights I've ever watched.  His head barely moves.  I think Karass pounds on him. 

 

Foreman can probably stink out the joint against Santos, and win a decision.  Santos will probably allow it to happen, because he's not active enough when he fights.

 

Chavez fight is a joke.  Next thing you know, this guy is going to be 50-0 and still without one good win. 

 

In the main event, I'm on Cotto.  Too big, too strong.  Pacquiao won't hurt him, I don't think.    He never hurt Oscar.  He just killed him with his speed.  Oscar was useless in that fight, but he was still never close to being down.  If Cotto goes to the body early, I think Manny slows down alot as the fight goes on. 

 

Good luck tonight. 

Thanks Danno. You're in the same camp as me on Gomez huh? I don't get it either. Santos has been on the way out, if he was ever in at all. Yuri is also a Top Rank fighter and has an interesting story and would be easy to promote and gain a niche following.

I've always liked Cotto in the fight, even thinking about going large. I listed a couple of the reasons in another thread. However, I changed my mind again after watching the Clottey fight 2 times this morning.

Cotto changed his whole gameplan once he got cut in the third. He came out in the 4th and really fought with some vigor. Some of the shots he landed on Clottey were shots that would have stopped a most fighters. The problem was that the cut bothered him and he started getting caught with every right hand Clottey threw. He also started backing up - something he didn't do at all prior to the cut.

Assuming he doesn't get cut or hurt early against Pacman, he should come forward and land some big shots. I always questioned Cotto's chin after Torres and the infamous Chop-Chop wobbles. It was a big mistake. He can take a punch very well. Clottey landed bombs on Cotto and several times Cotto instantly returned bombs of his own.

Manny and Roach are getting way to comfortable. I'm not sure Pacman is ready for the type of fight that Cotto will force him into. Superhero? Singer? Didn't listen in camp and made Roach look like a clown? 3/1 favorite over a guy that basically cleaned out everyone in the welterweight division? (He was crushing Margarito until the wraps got wet..)

Lines are based on public perception. Reminds me of when Cheato was 4/1 over Shane. When Pavlik was 3.5/1 over Hopkins. I just don't know when Manny became the better fighter or bigger star. Yeah, I'm done. I might talk myself into something here...

Good luck tonight.

I totally agree with this.  Pacquiao has a concert planned tonight after the fight, where people have bought tickets.  How lightly is he taking Cotto?  Cotto has never been an underdog in his career, and today you get him at +250.  Sign me up.

Yep, an eight song set. The arrogance is making me sick. It's not like Mayweather arrogance. It's is borderline stupidity....

This fight is going over. Very evenly matched, 2 proud warriors. Over is the call mark my words

Good luck WTL. Karass sure looks like a good pick to me.

Hey walk, off topic but what do you think the line on Mosley/Berto will be?  They just had the presser where the officially announced it.  I LOVE Mosley in that fight.  I'm just afraid that the price will be too high. 

Haven't really thought about it but my guess would be Shane minus -350. What are you guys thinking?

I'm thinking in that realm.  Maybe as high as -400. 

I am going to disagree and say its -250 Sugar....

I'm not sure Berto has the name value to open it that low. I kinda like Berto at 3/1, he reminds me of a young Shane with more power and less defense. All the tools are there and he will be great champion for years after this crop of fighters moves along.

I think walk the fact that he is undefeated against a 38 year old fighter who has had a very inactive year means this line opens at less then -300.

Ok, but what about Collazo giving him hell? Probably his only true test at this point. Urango was moving up and never had the speed or boxing ability to be in the fight. Shane coming off the beat down of Margarito.. thinking they would get too much Shane action south of -300.

I disagree on Berto.  I just don't like him that much.  He reminds me alot of Jeff Lacy (I've made this comparison before).  He has impressive KO numbers and is muscular, but when I watch him, I just don't think he's that powerful.  I think Mosley could have an easy time with him. 

 

I just bet Karass, Foreman, Chavez, and the under in the Chavez fight.  I didn't bet Chavez straight up.  I parlayed him with Karass.  I'm also down on Cotto for a few units.   

LMAO at the Lacy analogy. It's sad how far he has fallen. I can see it though. Still think Berto has amazing hand speed - probably better than Shane at this point. Can Shane keep going 12 at his age? Can Berto take a real punch? <---- That would be the question for me.

We'll either be laughing or crying together tonight. Really like the undercard regardless of the big one. Should be a good night. Then again they all START good... I even get to enjoy most of the ND/Pitt game prior to the fight. Huge weekend for a Pittsburgh sports fan. Hell, the Pens are playing too.

i dont know what you mean by "the way he was acting all week." But isn't it set up for a Manny/Mayweather fight?

I see where you coming from but remember the Ricardo Mayorga fight (sorry can't spell his name). Shane looked horrible! Now if you take the Collazo line as a guide, Sugar looked far more impressive. I agreed with Danno that Berto is over rated and Sugar takes this but I still think we will get ok odds for this fight as books at one stage made Jeff Lacy a fav over Joe C!!! (man did I pound that gift). Sugar on points looks the obvious play and thats what I would play..

My point is Because he is young undefeated I think we will get a decent line of -250. Which is very playable

I've looked for about half an hour now and still can't find one. This might actually wind up being another board burner. Berto going at Ochocinco and Jay-Z on Twitter. Gotta love it. What will be next? Shane looked old overnight before and has had a nice rebirth but I think we'll see the torch passed. Can't wait for the props more than anything.

Walk I dont get excitied about this Sugar/Berto fight for some reason. With everything thats happening especially tonight and also Ward/Kessler ( i think we will see a classic, just a hunch) it would like watching NFL Europe after the superbowl!

Chavez Jr. better smoke this can... he has ZERO power. Walk through him and drop the bombs...

Terrible by Chavez letting this get past 7. He looks like he just doesn't care