October 5-6 Picks (+13.7 units on 13 Posted Plays)

YTD: 13 plays, +13.7 units

Manny Pacquiao vs. Marco Antonio Barrera
Pacquiao by KO-TKO-DQ (+110)
3 units

This is a fight that didn't need to be made, as we already saw Pacquiao demolish Barrera in 2003.  After the first round, Pacquiao's superior speed and power took over, and Barrera was basically outclassed by the younger, more talented fighter.  Since that fight, Pacquiao has won 6 of his 8 fights (5 by KO), with the only non-wins being a draw against Juan Manuel Marquez and a unanimous decision loss to Erik Morales.  But Pacquiao has since avenged the Morales loss by knocking him out in the tenth and third rounds in two subsequent rematches.  Meanwhile, Barrera has gone at least ten rounds in six of the seven bouts since losing by TKO to Pacquiao in 2003.  His only loss during this span came in his last fight against Juan Manuel Marquez, but his opponents haven't been on Pacquiao's level.  Barrera can beat guys like Robbie Peden, Rocky Juarez, and a faded Morales with workmanlike performances, but that's not going to cut it against Pacquiao.  Barrera just doesn't have the hand speed or defensive maneuverability to outbox Pacquiao, and even though he's been intensely training for this battle, heart can only take a fighter so far.  Barrera is now 33 years old, and he's slowing down.  This will be his last fight, and his family will likely force him to retire early if he's taking a beating on Saturday night.  And a beatdown seems almost inevitable, as I just can't see how a fading Barrera can compete with Pacquiao when he couldn't do it in his prime.  Take the KO prop, and be happy that you're able to capitalize on the public's infatuation with Barrera's legend.  This prop should be more like -250, as it seems almost certain that Pacquiao will take him out.  The only concern is that Pacquiao might not be taking the fight seriously, but I think that such talk is overblown.  Pacquiao is a professional, and he'll take care of business once he's in the ring.  He'd prefer a short night, and I think he'll get it, as I don't see Barrera surviving past the ninth round.  Also, if you're disappointed with the PPV main event, blame Bob Arum and Oscar De La Hoya.  They should've matched Pacquiao with Joan Guzman or Humberto Soto instead of milking Barrera's legend for one last payday.  

Yohnny Perez vs. Alexander Fedorov
Under 8.5 Rounds (-120)
1.2 Units

Bantamweights Yohnny Perez and Alexander Fedorov meet Friday night in Corona, California, in a scheduled 10-rounder.  Perez enters the contest with an unbeaten record in 13 fights, with 10 ending by KO.  Out of Perez's 10 KO's, 5 have come in the 3rd round or earlier. The 28-year old-Perez started boxing professionally in 2005 and has been busy since then, fighting six times in 2006 and five times already in 2007.  Federov, 30, enters tonight's brawl with a 17-4-1 record, although he has fought only thre times since April, 2005.  Although Fedorov has 10 KO's in his 17 wins, most of those came against no-name Russian fighters (13 of his fights took place in the boxing metropolis of Ekaterinburg, Russia).  Both men are known for pressing the action and tonight should be no exception.  I expect Perez, the stronger of the two, to win the early rounds and gradually break down the older Russian.  Although Fedorov may be able to survive several rounds, Perez's power and speed should eventually catch up to him, resulting in a late KO somewhere around round 7 or 8.

I took Perez to win, but Fedorov has never been stopped, doing so would be pretty impressive for YP.

GLA!
bigeiii

Yohnny Perez vs. Alexander Fedorov
Under 8.5 Rounds (-120)
1.2 Units 

Correction: +1 unit

Good call.  Perez and Bey definitely impressed me last night.

Samuel Peter vs. Jameel McCline
Under 9.5 (-115)
1.15 units

Peter is an improving, talented young heavyweight out to prove that he's the cream of the division.  After a streak of four straight KO wins in 2004-05 (all coming in five rounds or less), Peter faced off against Wladimir Klitschko.  Although Peter lost a unanimous decision, he floored the weak-chinned Klitschko three times, and that bout with the technically proficient Ukrainian gave Peter invaluable experience.  Also, Peter battled the slick boxing style of James Toney in his last two matches.  After eking out a split decision in the first one, Peter came back in January of this year with a masterful display of boxing skills and punching power, as he easily outpointed Toney in a one-sided bout.  That showed me a lot, as Peter's ability to adapt to his opponent displays a high boxing IQ.  Even though Peter has only KO'd one of his last five opponents, this can be explained by the fact that three of those matches came against elite fighters (Toney and Klitschko), and the other decision came against rugged journeyman Robert Hawkins, who hasn't been KO'd since 1995.  Meanwhile, at 37-years-old, McCline is Peter's elder by ten years, and although he can probably still beat second-tier opposition, he's lost all four fights against the division's top fighters (Klitschko, Brock, Byrd, and Valuev).  McCline is a muscle-bound monster at 270 lbs, but this might be a detriment for the aging fighter, as he was forced to retire after three rounds due to an injured kneecap against Valuev in January of this year.  Although McCline had surgery to repair the damage, the knee will likely continue to be a weak point, and aging fighters tend to heal less quickly than younger ones.  I'd be surprised if McCline can last past the eighth found against Peter's movement and power, as McCline will be forced to test the strength of that knee if he's going to compete with Peter.  I'm taking the under 9.5 at -115 because my book's offering a KO prop at less attractive odds (-160).  But if you can get the KO prop at -130 or less, that's probably the way to go since you'll get an extra 2.5 rounds.  However, I don't think those extra rounds will be necessary for winning this wager.

Samuel Peter vs. Jameel McCline
Under 9.5 (-115)
- 1.15 units 

Manny Pacquiao vs. Marco Antonio Barrera
Pacquiao by KO-TKO-DQ (+110)
- 3 units 

Barrera has no honor after that gutless performance.  That's the worst possible way to go out.

Yeah, Barrera came to survive tonight.  I guess he wasn't willing to make it a fight and end his career on his back.