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Nice Value Bet For This Weekend 2/21/09!

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Posted: #1
Miguel Cotto faces unknown Michael Jennings on Saturday night. A Few facts about Mr.Jennings=
 
1. He has never fought outside out the United Kingdom.
 
2. Of his 34 Wins (against much inferior opponents) he only has
    16 KO's.
 
3. Has never been in a fight with anyone NEAR the class of Cotto.
 
 
This fighter is the most hand picked opposition that Top Rank could find IMO. 
 
Cotto not only has to win; but look spectacular in the process to regain his reputation as a devastating KO fighter.
 
It's hard not to see Cotto completely destroying this grade of opponent on Saturday.
 
5 Dimes has Cotto inside the distance at 5-1. I really think this is an underlay as I would have set this number at at least 8-1 or more.
 
 
Value is Value & if you can lay 5-1 on a 8-1 shot, in the long run you'll be way ahead of the game.
 
Of course there are no sure things in gambling, but I think this is the best value bet of the weekend. Good Luck & comments welcome.== no trolling please.
 
 
   
 
 
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Posted: #2


thinking about taking the under 5 1/2 @ +110. As you said Jennings is a handpicked opponent and I think Cotto will destroy him easily. With Marg out of the picture for now, a dominating performance by Cotto will give him some major opportunities in the division.
 
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Posted: #3
i think this is right about where it should be odds wise.  this is a chance of a lifetime for jennings and i hear he's trained like a demon for this fight. 

none of the reasons you listed would have me thinking that -500 is value (he's never fought outside the uk?)  reason #2 leads me to believe that he's not a KO fighter and thus will be looking to box and try to at least survive. he's also got a couple of inches height advantage.

not that i'm betting cotto by decision or anything :)  i think you're right that he'll KO jennings, but i wouldn't call -500 a value bet here.

good luck
 
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Posted: #4
Cotto will pound this poor kids body relentlessly.  He definately stops him, just like Rubio stops Pavlik.  Whoa! 
 
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Posted: #5
Pavlik has proven beatable
but Rubio is pretty damn shitty
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by DannoDanger:

Cotto will pound this poor kids body relentlessly.  He definately stops him, just like Rubio stops Pavlik.  Whoa! 

 

Do you think Rubio stops Pavlik? Wow!..... That would be quite an upset. What is your reasoning for liking Rubio? This could make for an interesting discussion.

 
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Posted: #7
 
 
 
                      I just feel that Cotto can only be intimidated by a big puncher. A guy like Jennings shouldn't prevent him from doing whatever he wants to on Saturday. Cotto can be cautious if he respects his opponents punching power. If he can come forward & deliver devastating body shots Jennings will be in a world of hurt. I can't blame Arum for selecting this grade of opposition after Cotto's last brutal beating, but this fight should serve very little purpose for boxing fans. As for the Value aspect. That I'm sure you would agree== Is in the eyes of the beholder. GLTU!
 
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Posted: #8
The Cotto fight will be very intresting. Cotto will win the fight but I will be looking to see if he is the same confident body puncher that he was in every fight except the Margarito fight in which he fought moving backwards.  Cotto's career reminds me of fernando vargas after the ko to trinidad. Vargas had nothing left after that fight no legs, no chin, no will to win just a lost fighter. Will Cotto be another Vargas? 
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by ROY29:

The Cotto fight will be very intresting. Cotto will win the fight but I will be looking to see if he is the same confident body puncher that he was in every fight except the Margarito fight in which he fought moving backwards.  Cotto's career reminds me of fernando vargas after the ko to trinidad. Vargas had nothing left after that fight no legs, no chin, no will to win just a lost fighter. Will Cotto be another Vargas? 

 

Vargas actually went on to win his next 2 fights after the Trinidad loss. I don't think he completely lost his stature until he lost to Mayorga. I will agree that he was not the same feared fighter after the Tito beating though. I think Arum is aware of the mental aspect of Cotto's upcoming fight. He was not foolish enough to put him in there with a big puncher for that reason. Cotto should once again be the body banger on Saturday. The Englishman should fall somewhere in the middle rounds.

 
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Posted: #10
The under is tough at 6.5.  That's the perfect line.
 
Captain
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Posted: #11
[Quote: Originally Posted by DannoDanger]
The under is tough at 6.5.  That's the perfect line.

 

Seems about right to me. I wouldn't know which way to go on the total.

 

 

 
 
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Posted: #12
My line has Cotto at -1900 and Pavlik at -900!!
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