Month 4 Recap: 1/3 through the year

Every play posted along with units wagered

2006 Results (March-July): +19.2 Units (Won $1,920)

2007 Starting Bankroll on 1/25/07: $2000 (Unit Size=$100)
Current 2007 Bankroll: $3,995 ( Up 19.95 Units and $1,995 for the year)
Winning week record: 13-3

Month 1: +6.48 Units (+$648)
Month 2: -.19 of a unit (-$19)
Month 3: +5.45 Units (+$545)
Month 4 Complete: +8.21 units (+$821)



May 2-5       Won 5.51 units for the week
.25 of a unit on fight won't go 1:30 Round 8 (+205) in Norris-Oquendo
.85 of a unit on Albert by 10rd Decision (+189)
.15 of a unit on the Draw in Albert-Campas (+1400)
.25 of a unit on Vetyeka (+425) vs Hasegawa
1 unit on Munoz (+160) vs Nashiro
1 unit parlay on Chambers by 10rd Decision (-123) & Cazares Inside the Distance (-245) to win 1.55
.15 of a unit on Guinn Inside the Distance (+692)
.20 of a unit on Oscar by Split Decision (+1400)
.20 of a unit on Oscar by Majority Decision (+1800)
.10 of a unit on a Draw (+1600)
1 unit parlay on Calderon (-450), Torres (-600), and Mayweather (-165) to win 1.29 units


May 9-11       Won .05 of a unit for the week     $5
.75 of a unit on Diaconu (-150)
1.45 units on Samuel Miller (-145) vs Brian Vera Oklahoma judging gets me again in 2007
.5 of a unit parlay on Miller (-165), Cotto (-170), and Anderson (-260) Oklahoma judging
.6 of a unit on over 9.5 rounds (-120) in Davis-Smith
1.15 units on Davis points handicap +24.5 (-115)

Best month of the year so far with over 8 units of profit.  Through 4 months now and the bankroll has been doubled, averaging 5 units and $500 of profit per month.  13 out of 16 weeks of betting this year have been profitable.  If boxing didn't have the crap limits everywhere a dime bettor could be up 20 G's on the plays.  On to month 5 .

Futures for next week....
.25 of a unit on Griffin by 12rd Decision (+567) vs Johnson
1.6 units on Over 11.5 rounds (-160) in Johnson-Griffin
1.45 units on Under 9.5 rounds (-145) in Pavlik-Miranda
3.5 units on Jermain Taylor (-350) vs Cory Spinks
.5 of a unit on Vidoz (+500) vs Virchis
1.1 units on under 9.5 rounds (-110) in Brahmer-Velazco
1 unit on under 8.5 rounds (+115) in Ulrich-Turchi

Further futures....
1.15 units on Huck (-115) vs Tokarev
.5 of a unit on Judah (+350) vs Cotto
1.8 units on under 8.5 rounds (-120) in Brewster-Klitschko

Pending future parlay.....
1 unit to win 5.57:
Froch -610
Kessler -425
Pacquiao -600
Sturm -260
Mayweather -220
Taylor -350
Ibragimov -195

Nice views, we are kind of on the same page.

Cotto/Judah
Yeah, that +350 was where 5dimes opened the fight.  Right now it is at +275 which I still think is a very nice price on Judah.  I could not lay the chalk here on Cotto with his chin issues, Zab being a southpaw (can you say Chop-Chop?), and him being in against the highest quality fighter he has faced; of course Zab has his own set of chin concerns.  The only other play I would consider on the fight would by Judah by KO which I would think would be around +425 when it opens.  For Zab to win this fight he is going to have to do so in the first 6 rounds.  If Cotto's chin holds up and takes this into the later rounds than his body shots and workrate will wear Zab down.

Do you think it is any coincidence that Cotto's handlers have put him in against light hitting guys in his last 4 fights since the near debacles with Chop-Chop and Ricardo Torres?  Zab is the first guy at 147 he has faced who can actually check his chin hard.


Hatton/JLC
I leaned toward Hatton when the fight was announced, but now I tend to be leaning toward the near +150 price on JLC.  Still not decided though.  I think the odds makers are looking at JLC's 1st fight at 140, his close win over Herman N., but I don't think that fight is indicative of his ability at this weight.  I think he thought that fight was going to be a breeze and didn't really take it seriously.  Both guys are getting good sparring in, I believe that Hatton's chief sparring partner is Steve Forbes and JLC's is A. "Terra" Garcia.

I will tell you one thing that worries me from a betting prospective as well as a fan's prospective is the fight coming to a premature halt because of a bad cut.  Both guys have shown the tendency to cut in the past and with the fight being fought at close range we could see some "Butt" action or grazing hook that causes some damage.  I think the giant Brit invasion over to the states for the fight could help the odds for those looking at betting JLC.