Posted:
#1
OK=== I've went over this fight in my mind at least 100 times. I can only come up with one conclusion on the outcome. That conclusion is that the fight WILL GO THE DISTANCE! I'll try to briefly explain why without becoming overly redundant due to prior posts.
I'd like to begin with Mayweather because his strategy should determine how this fight plays out. Will Floyd suddenly change his mindset & be overly aggressive & come out with Guns a blazing? I think not. He might talk all the smack he wants about KOing Marquez but he is intelligent enough to know that over aggressiveness, would be his worst possible game-plan in this match-up. Remember Floyd has always been a Safety First Defensive minded fighter. And that is against boxers with less then half the skill of a Marquez. He also has shown that he very rarely punches in combinations unless he has an opponent badly hurt (discounting many over matched foes). He usually wins by using his great reflexs & hand speed to dazzle his opponent into submission one punch at a time. If he is up against a face first boxer (Gatti,Hatton), he might tend to open up a little more because of his edge in boxing instincts & speed. He will not risk being counter-punched by a Master such as Marquez by leaving himself open by over aggressiveness. This I am very confident of. His best chance of a clear cut victory is to Box & avoid exchanges. Why would the best DEFENSIVE fighter in the game today take any unnecessary chances of getting beat by the other man's strength. That makes no sense to me. I do not buy into the theory that he has to look good to promote a future bout with Pac-man. I think he will be thrilled just to get a Win.
As for Marquez
One of the best technicians in the fight game today. Always seems to be able to make the right adjustments as the bout progresses. The moving up in weight factor is being overly focused on IMO. There will not be that much of a difference on the night of the fight. Reach & speed disadvantage should be much more of a concern for JMM. But can he compensate for the this disadvantage? I think he has a good chance. Why? Because of timing & the ability to adjust as previously mentioned. He needs to work the body & make Floyd a little gun-shy. He will have the crowd behind him & might get the benefit of the doubt in close rounds. He also has to be weary of being TOO aggressive himself. Floyd has a way of turning this action in his favor. Can he KO Floyd? I highly doubt that will happen either. Money just too good on the defense. But I do expect a chess match between 2 Masters. Both have respect for each other. Neither will want to make that big mistake that will cost them the fight. If Floyd fights a very Defensive type of fight (which I think he will) & Marquez looks for the perfect counter-punch (which i think he might) we should see a carefully fought match that goes the distance. I make the probability on this about 3-1. Of course you can always have an unexpected head butt or cut that shortens the bout, but I think I have factored that into my odds. So laying -145 seems like a great VALUE bet. Mayweather, I think deserves to be about a 3-1 favorite but 4,5 seems a tad to high in a fight that I think should be fairly close. I'll also take a small stab at Marquez by decision at + 7.5 to 1.
Final Plays
Fights goes the distance -145 === 5 Units
Marquez + 7.5 -1 by decision 1 Unit
I'd like to begin with Mayweather because his strategy should determine how this fight plays out. Will Floyd suddenly change his mindset & be overly aggressive & come out with Guns a blazing? I think not. He might talk all the smack he wants about KOing Marquez but he is intelligent enough to know that over aggressiveness, would be his worst possible game-plan in this match-up. Remember Floyd has always been a Safety First Defensive minded fighter. And that is against boxers with less then half the skill of a Marquez. He also has shown that he very rarely punches in combinations unless he has an opponent badly hurt (discounting many over matched foes). He usually wins by using his great reflexs & hand speed to dazzle his opponent into submission one punch at a time. If he is up against a face first boxer (Gatti,Hatton), he might tend to open up a little more because of his edge in boxing instincts & speed. He will not risk being counter-punched by a Master such as Marquez by leaving himself open by over aggressiveness. This I am very confident of. His best chance of a clear cut victory is to Box & avoid exchanges. Why would the best DEFENSIVE fighter in the game today take any unnecessary chances of getting beat by the other man's strength. That makes no sense to me. I do not buy into the theory that he has to look good to promote a future bout with Pac-man. I think he will be thrilled just to get a Win.
As for Marquez
One of the best technicians in the fight game today. Always seems to be able to make the right adjustments as the bout progresses. The moving up in weight factor is being overly focused on IMO. There will not be that much of a difference on the night of the fight. Reach & speed disadvantage should be much more of a concern for JMM. But can he compensate for the this disadvantage? I think he has a good chance. Why? Because of timing & the ability to adjust as previously mentioned. He needs to work the body & make Floyd a little gun-shy. He will have the crowd behind him & might get the benefit of the doubt in close rounds. He also has to be weary of being TOO aggressive himself. Floyd has a way of turning this action in his favor. Can he KO Floyd? I highly doubt that will happen either. Money just too good on the defense. But I do expect a chess match between 2 Masters. Both have respect for each other. Neither will want to make that big mistake that will cost them the fight. If Floyd fights a very Defensive type of fight (which I think he will) & Marquez looks for the perfect counter-punch (which i think he might) we should see a carefully fought match that goes the distance. I make the probability on this about 3-1. Of course you can always have an unexpected head butt or cut that shortens the bout, but I think I have factored that into my odds. So laying -145 seems like a great VALUE bet. Mayweather, I think deserves to be about a 3-1 favorite but 4,5 seems a tad to high in a fight that I think should be fairly close. I'll also take a small stab at Marquez by decision at + 7.5 to 1.
Final Plays
Fights goes the distance -145 === 5 Units
Marquez + 7.5 -1 by decision 1 Unit
I SAY THAT WOULD BE AN ACCURATE STATEMENT...12rds 5 LARGE 
5,000.000
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