Posted:
#1
not much love for Tony out here in the world of covers forums - Mosley is on the back side of his storied career and this one should take him off the main stage --TKO 
MARGARITO OVER MOSLEY
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Posts: 18
Posted:
#4
I'll wait a while until I see the weigh in, but if Margarito looks like I expect him to look, I'll probably go with Mosley. It's really going to kill Margarito to make weight, after ballooning up to 200 lbs after the Cotto fight. Mosley biggest advantage in this fight is speed, and if Margarito is drained and gaunt, Mosley can pick him apart. I'll hold off on my final prediction until I see the weigh in, but gun to my head right now, I go with Mosley.
Posted:
#6
i definitely think that marg is going to win this fight, but i don't see much value in taking Marg at -600
i believe the best value bet here is the under 10.5 rounds at +125. don't see much point in taking marg by decision +150 when you can pay the extra .25 to cover yourself in case Mosley somehow manages to KO him
i believe the best value bet here is the under 10.5 rounds at +125. don't see much point in taking marg by decision +150 when you can pay the extra .25 to cover yourself in case Mosley somehow manages to KO him
Posted:
#7
I am not spending a penny on Margarito. I am a big time value better. Even though I know someone might not win it does not mean that there is not vaule on his side. This line is inflated at
-465 for Margarito since Margarito beat Cotto, and Cotto beat mosley. But all 3 fighters are different and I have had the exprience to see all fighters live.
Margarito has ko power, but more since he takes alot of punches to get very punishing ones in. Cotto was proud. He knew he could beat Margarito by keeping him on the move so he could not plant his feet for max punching power, however, he fucked up and tried to go toe for toe. Then Margarito broke his nose, no doubt. Cotto could not breath, and was swallow alot of blood. So he quit. But I still personally thought if cotto lasted to the 12th the fight was a draw a worst for Cotto. Mosley had to fight toe-to-toe with Cotto to win, but that fight was still close.
Remember Mosely has a chin himself and also does not allow himself to get hit cleanly like Floyd does. Mosely started to lose because he chose to move up way too much in weight at 154. Forrest just had his number and since Forrest never could get any fights those loses did more damage to Moselys persona. Forrest was a pound for pound fighter no doubt.
Mosely is not going toe-to-toe with Margarito and will keep this fight in the center ring. Mosely has the greater reach and is only 2 inches shorter so the size differental is in play. Margarito worst enemy is fighting a speed based fighter. Lukcy for Mosely he has always had Good power to back up the speed.
Also the weight draining issue is in play. I personally think Margarito will win by 11 or 12 round ko, or by decsion....but this fight is more of a 55% or 60% chance of Margarito winning then the 75% that we are recieving in odds. For that I am defenatly on Mosely to win and to win by decsion.
Posted:
#8
I like Margarito too......I thought he was the fighter of the year not pac-man......So if this was anyone but Cotto or Mosely, I am on Margarito. If Cotto did turn into a Meldrick Taylor type, emotionally damaged fighter, after that fight then of course I like Margarito in the rematch. If the line was -180 or -225 i could take Margarito.
Posted:
#9
Well said Cee. All I'd disagree with is the height difference, Shane has NEVER been the 5'9 he lists himself at, while Tony is every inch of his 5'11.
Not sure that I'll hit the Mosley UD prop, but already locked in the O10.5 at -105 a few weeks ago. Besides chin, Mosley knows how to hold and regroup if he needs to. We found out (or now that I think about it, were reminded) that Cotto has no clue how to clinch effectively. Shane is also much lighter on his feet, and he takes quick, purposeful steps that don't expend as much energy. I will gain that much more respect for Tony if he forces Shane into the kind of marathon he had Miguel running.
Add in the weight questions and Tony's motivation for this fight, and I can see putting something on Shane by decision for better than +500.
Not sure that I'll hit the Mosley UD prop, but already locked in the O10.5 at -105 a few weeks ago. Besides chin, Mosley knows how to hold and regroup if he needs to. We found out (or now that I think about it, were reminded) that Cotto has no clue how to clinch effectively. Shane is also much lighter on his feet, and he takes quick, purposeful steps that don't expend as much energy. I will gain that much more respect for Tony if he forces Shane into the kind of marathon he had Miguel running.
Add in the weight questions and Tony's motivation for this fight, and I can see putting something on Shane by decision for better than +500.
Posted:
#10
Quote Originally Posted by Zumbize:
Well said Cee. All I'd disagree with is the height difference, Shane has NEVER been the 5'9 he lists himself at, while Tony is every inch of his 5'11.
Not sure that I'll hit the Mosley UD prop, but already locked in the O10.5 at -105 a few weeks ago. Besides chin, Mosley knows how to hold and regroup if he needs to. We found out (or now that I think about it, were reminded) that Cotto has no clue how to clinch effectively. Shane is also much lighter on his feet, and he takes quick, purposeful steps that don't expend as much energy. I will gain that much more respect for Tony if he forces Shane into the kind of marathon he had Miguel running.
Add in the weight questions and Tony's motivation for this fight, and I can see putting something on Shane by decision for better than +500.
Well said Cee. All I'd disagree with is the height difference, Shane has NEVER been the 5'9 he lists himself at, while Tony is every inch of his 5'11.
Not sure that I'll hit the Mosley UD prop, but already locked in the O10.5 at -105 a few weeks ago. Besides chin, Mosley knows how to hold and regroup if he needs to. We found out (or now that I think about it, were reminded) that Cotto has no clue how to clinch effectively. Shane is also much lighter on his feet, and he takes quick, purposeful steps that don't expend as much energy. I will gain that much more respect for Tony if he forces Shane into the kind of marathon he had Miguel running.
Add in the weight questions and Tony's motivation for this fight, and I can see putting something on Shane by decision for better than +500.
Your right Sugar is more like 5"8 but he still has the reach advantage....Forrest was a quick, counterpuncher (boring is the reason he never fought anyone, plus he was though to beat)...So he played his reach....Margarito doesnt use his to well. Margarito is not technicianl and his jab is slow and very telagraphic. But when he hits you he drains you. You are also correct Cotto cant clinch for shit....He is one proud dude. Ill place my bet soon.
I meant to say earlier the height advantage is not in play.
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