Klitschko-Arreola==Where The Value Can be Found

The 1st question I asked myself when I read of this match-up was... How did Arreola get a shot at a world title fight? Who has he ever beat that warrants him this opportunity. I still can't figure that one out. I guess HBO likes the angle of a tough Mexican brawler fighting a foreigner in LA USA. That would be great except that the fighters will be the only ones throwing the punches, & punches do not care where they are being thrown from. Klitschko has every advantage that I can think of. Taller, longer reach, more experience & has fought much better opponents. Stylistically speaking I think Arreola will be made to order for the Russian Robot. Does Arreola have good foot movement? NO! Does he have good head movement? NO! Does he have real speed? NO So his only hope is to land a lucky bomb on Klitschko's rather dubious chin. But to do that he will have to get inside. How will he get inside? Beats me. Klitschko will have is long jab in his face all night. Even if Arreola manages to occasionally force his way in,.. Klitschko will grab & hold until they are broken up & Arreola chances of landing anything meaningful are gone. I see Klitschko jabbing him to death (not literally) until he gets the opening to land the big right. After that it's lights out Arreola. I would look for that to happen somewhere in the middle rounds. Chances of his getting a KO are between 5 to1 or more in my estimation So I think laying -380 on the KO is a good Value bet.So my only play will be


Klitschko by KO -380    3 Units

You are right, except that Vitali doesn't have a chin problem. He's never had the stamina and chin issues of baby brother Wlad. If he's healthy, Vitali wins this fight 100 times out of 100.

Yes red good write up, but Vitali isn't the one with the chin issues, that's his brother.

Also the line has shot up 5dimes has it as -760  Klitcho ITD is now at -420.

To me chance of a KO are 100 %, 95 % chance side is on Klitcho and the lucky "lottery" punch gives Arreola a 5 % chance.

I give him a 5 % chance because Klitcho was off for many years, and came back to fight a Sam Peter who only came for a paycheck, so he may have some rust still.

Arreola has no head movement or boxing skills, he's a brawler who has no way of getting inside besides rushing in and eating the right hand.

I think they both have chin issues. It runs in the family. You can add lack of stamina to the equation & chins tend to get weaker & weaker.But granted... Brother Wlad has shown the softer beard so far. - 420 is still worth a small play but the Value is slightly diminished. And IMO=  VALUE is the only thing that matters in all forms of gambling. GLTU!

vitali...chin issues? 

When has Vitali shown any chin issue. Didn't Lennox hit him with  a fully leveraged tremendous uppercut and Vitali walked thru it. Maybe gunslinging southpaw Sanders had Vitali shook a bit.  I think your underestimating Arreola and the fact that the last time Klit was challenged was back in 2003 by an aging Lewis.  4 years off and comebacks against a fat plodder and overweight cruiser doesn't do much for me.  Arreola will be hard to discourage and may have more in the tank as the fight wears on...Cristobal in 9   

[Quote: Originally Posted by punchmaster]

When has Vitali shown any chin issue. Didn't Lennox hit him with  a fully leveraged tremendous uppercut and Vitali walked thru it. Maybe gunslinging southpaw Sanders had Vitali shook a bit.  I think your underestimating Arreola and the fact that the last time Klit was challenged was back in 2003 by an aging Lewis.  4 years off and comebacks against a fat plodder and overweight cruiser doesn't do much for me.  Arreola will be hard to discourage and may have more in the tank as the fight wears on...Cristobal in 9

Vitali did show a lot of heart against Lewis, but I think most agree that Lennox was looking past that fight. I did say Vitali's chin was dubious (uncertain), that's far from saying I thought he had a glass jaw. But... fighters who tend to fatigue easily, tend to not be able to absorb punches well as the fight wears on. That was my main point. I don't think it will matter against Arreola anyhow. Although the Klitschko brothers are far from my favorite fighters, I have to admit they have some very positive qualities. They both are good at judging distance & using that long reach to keep opponents at bay. Also, they throw straight punches & never take stupid chances against dangerous adversaries. Arreola throws wide, wild shots & has never faced anyone of the class of Klitschko. This seems like a total mismatch to me, & a very early KO will only be prevented by the cautious style of Klitschko. Can't see Arreola having more in the tank considering he's never been past 7 rounds once, & always seems way over weight for his bouts.

vitali klitschko, cautious?

Klitschko by TKO in under 7.5 rounds

Anyone know why its jumped to -600? I was going to fire on Vitali but worried about the big jump.

I've never seen so much dodgy information being given.

Vitali doesn't have CHIN issues, he's NEVER been dropped, please I've seen countless posts people saying he has been dropped many times, that's  his BROTHER NOT him.

Where do people think Vitali is cautious? He is a very active fighter. Remember these are heavy weights not guys at 130 or 147 who can throw tons of punches.

I cannot find one person ROOTING for Klitcho, we all are rooting for Arreola, but even the ones that are rooting know it's a LONG shot.

I wish everyone who takes Arreola much luck, will be great to have a new Heavy weight champion not named Klitcho!

Good luck, I think Diaz pulls this one, he has more to fight for, Chavez if he loses I believe he said he will be retiring, doesn't sound like a great game plan to WIN eh?

Good luck,

This one went just about the way I thought it would. Arreola was not ready to take on a world class heavyweight, as of yet. I must give him major props for absorbing as much punishment as he did without going down however. No one can question his heart.... His skill?... That's another story. The referee was correct in stoping the bout as Arreola could have been seriously hurt in the final 2 rounds.This way... He lives to fight another day. Congratulations to everyone who bet the Klitschko inside the distance prop. Let's hope we can keep the Winning streak going in the next fight.