FNF Card (2-8-08)

Question

I have to say I was unimpressed with Wilson last time out. Everyone remembers the spectacular knockout, but I saw a guy mostly look bad for 10 and a half rounds. Real bad. Rahman over Lawrence bad (well maybe not that quite that bad).

Wilson was a gatekeeper at best, maybe even an opponent less than 2 years ago and a couple of KO's on ESPN against faded journeymen aren't going to make me forget it. I haven't decided how I'm going to back Flores, but I just saw the 12 round decision prop move from +570 to +480 (and now +392 as I continue to write this fucking post) on 5 dimes.

I'm not certain Flores is the guy, but someone is going to box Darnell Wilson's head off very soon. Flores is certainly an unproven pro, but he had a legitimate amateur career, and this will be his coming out party if he is ever to have one. He's gone 12 rounds before and I doubt that he has the pop to stop Wilson (and DW likely has the will to avoid it). So it would seem that the best value out there is on Flores decision, but I may take 2-1 as well.

I hope this thread is helpful, and I welcome all forms of commentary.

LetMeSpin · Answer

I have to say I was unimpressed with Wilson last time out. Everyone remembers the spectacular knockout, but I saw a guy mostly look bad for 10 and a half rounds. Real bad. Rahman over Lawrence bad (well maybe not that quite that bad).

Wilson was a gatekeeper at best, maybe even an opponent less than 2 years ago and a couple of KO's on ESPN against faded journeymen aren't going to make me forget it. I haven't decided how I'm going to back Flores, but I just saw the 12 round decision prop move from +570 to +480 (and now +392 as I continue to write this fucking post) on 5 dimes.

I'm not certain Flores is the guy, but someone is going to box Darnell Wilson's head off very soon. Flores is certainly an unproven pro, but he had a legitimate amateur career, and this will be his coming out party if he is ever to have one. He's gone 12 rounds before and I doubt that he has the pop to stop Wilson (and DW likely has the will to avoid it). So it would seem that the best value out there is on Flores decision, but I may take 2-1 as well.

I hope this thread is helpful, and I welcome all forms of commentary.

A2C · Answer

Not that I completely disagree with you, but I don't think you're giving Wilson enough credit for some of his recent wins. Kelvin Davis was a respected cruiser at the time of the fight. Also, Dale Brown and Daniel Judah weren't pushovers when Wilson KO'd them. And Nwodo was largely avoided in the cruiser class because of his height and fast hands. Nwodo would give almost any cruiser problems. Despite that, Wilson was able to dig deep and nearly knock his head off towards the end of the fight. That showed me a lot of heart, which is something we know nothing about with Flores. Will Flores be able to dig deep when the going gets rough? How will he respond to a big punch? (We already know that Chris Thomas knocked him down). Good luck with your play, as I think that in theory Flores has the capability of winning a 12-round decision. But there will be a lot of obstacles along the way.

LetMeSpin · Answer

I wouldn&#x27;t really dispute much of that, but 4-1 just seems absurd to me. I&#x27;m not saying it&#x27;s a gimme, but I see lots of value. I wish I could bet on over 11.5 somewhere. We really don&#x27;t know if Flores has the beard to survive this guy, but Wilson just seems ready to be beaten, and everything I&#x27;ve read indicates that Flores is polished enough as a boxer to be the guy. I think this line is banking on the memory of a few spectacular knockouts, and I want no part of that side.As for Wilson&#x27;s recent victories: Nwodo, I can&#x27;t find a significant win on his resume. I&#x27;m going to watch the tape of that fight again, but I think I remember something about him being a longtime sparring partner for some name heavyweights. Either way, he gave Wilson serious problems, discouraged him, and, I believe, showed us a window to the end for Ding-a-Ling.Kelvin Davis was completely destroyed and exposed by Wilson, but he had lost before, and he had been stopped before. The best performance of his life was a 2003 tkoby O&#x27;Neil Bell (controversial or not).Dale Brown was 35 years old when DW retired him, and he had been around.  And Daniel Judah, I really don&#x27;t know who he is, so I&#x27;ll give you that one.

Fullbrights · Answer

Daniel Judah is Zab&#x27;s brother and he really hasn&#x27;t ever done a thing.  He actually hurt his arm in that fight which resulted in the TKO verdict.As I said in the plays thread I was looking forward to seeing some outcome props out there for tonight, specifically Flores by decision.  I told a buddy last night that I thought it would be around &#x2B;300 and what do you know that is where it sits, but I find myself pissed off more than anything now after seeing here that it opened at &#x2B;570.  He said it best last night, the fight probably has two very realistic options; at that line there was ridiculous value.  I am sick.

getlowplayaz · Answer

BJ Flores ML &#x2B;155

LetMeSpin · Answer

That&#x27;s a garbage line.

getlowplayaz · Answer

now at &#x2B;180

LetMeSpin · Answer

Tell me about it. It was like watching someone burn half my money. They probably canceled any bets accepted at 6-1.

Fullbrights · Answer

Try &#x2B;220 and &#x2B;210 at my books (greek and 5dimes).

Fullbrights · Answer

I am sure they are still good to go.  It&#x27;s just a line that was off in my opinion and it really doesn&#x27;t take that much it seems to influence the outcome props at 5dimes for smaller fights.

LetMeSpin · Answer

Someone must have made a huge bet on Wilson ITD at near even money and then "insured" it on Flores decision at +570, That accounts for all the shifts. Wilson now at -260 is way to steep imo. Hope his backers got him early.

A2C · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by LetMeSpin] Someone must have made a huge bet on Wilson ITD at near even money and then "insured" it on Flores decision at &#x2B;570, That accounts for all the shifts. Wilson now at -260 is way to steep imo. Hope his backers got him early.&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Probably Snippets.  Oh wait, he lost all of his money on the Patriots.

Fullbrights · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by A2C]  &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Probably Snippets.  Oh wait, he lost all of his money on the Patriots.    [/Quote]Yes, he parlayed both with every possible big favorite in existence, all of which are complete locks.

mayweatherfan · Answer

Win or lose that was a great bet on Flores by "Letmespin". There&#x27;s really no reason to bet on Flores straight up on this fight, might as well just take him by decision. He&#x27;s not KO&#x27;ing  Wilson.

getlowplayaz · Answer

Flores by UD

bigeiii · Answer

"Ding-a-Ling" ITD.GLA!bigeiii

LetMeSpin · Answer

I&#x27;m playing over 9.5 also.

LetMeSpin · Answer

Over hits.

LetMeSpin · Answer

Flores by UD

. 118-110 was pretty wide. I had it around 8-4. Darnell really seems like a nice guy, but I hope he never gets in the ring with a legit boxer-puncher. I can't imagine what David Haye would do to him.

bigeiii · Answer

Nice Flores via UnaDec above. That had to taste good. I'm middled on that. Do you give the close rounds to the aggressor, or Flores who did make d-a-l miss, but did not touch d-a-l up much for it??? I had that 6-6. But 7-5 either way, possibly 8-4, I can stand.

bigeiii

LetMeSpin · Answer

I just saw more clean punching from Flores. He did a lot of running, but his sharp one-two was the best punch of the fight. If he had followed up his jab the whole night, it would have been much easier for him. The rounds DW won, he won big. You could even argue round 8 to be scored 10-8, but he straight up gave away at least 6 rounds. I have a hard time seeing it as a draw.

Fullbrights · Answer

I should have stuck with playing Flores by decision, but I just couldn't do it after finding out where that line was. I didn't get to see the fight, reads like it was a stinker. I know a lot can be said for a fighter doing what he has to do to get the win, but when will young fighters learn that they have to be somewhat entertaining in order to really generate some career steam?

getlowplayaz · Answer

BJ FLORES

LetMeSpin · Answer

I think Flores realizes that given his style, he could ill afford to lose this fight. He&#x27;s inexperienced, but he&#x27;s also 29 years old.

mayweatherfan · Answer

The problem was Flores was throwing a 1 but not many 2&#x27;s. VERY close fight. I could have seen 7-5 on either side or a draw. Wilson has only himself to blame for the loss though. He easily could have run Flores right out of the ring if he had put the pressure on earlier.

FNF Card (2-8-08)

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