Fights this weekend

I didn't see the fight between Williams and Matthysse, but I like both fighters this weekend.  Margarito looked bad against Clottey until Clottey broke his hand.  Also, since I believe Margarito is slightly overrated and Cintron lost to him, I like Matthysse and his +350 odds over Cintron.  If Matthysse pulls out the upset over Cintron, then we'll know that Margarito's "big win" over Cintron wasn't all that special, and we'll know that Williams will defeat Margarito.  On the other hand, I think Williams-Margarito is still a big question mark if Cintron beats Matthysse, as Matthysse was Williams' best opponent to date. 

But I'll go ahead and say that I'm liking Williams at even odds, and Matthysse at the +350.  Seems like there's a lot of misconceptions about the abilities of fighters these days, as I've been able to make some big money on the Donaire +700, Alcine +300, and the gift lines on the Hatton fight (-170 for the win, and +350 on the KO).

Regarding Gatti, I think this fight was made so that he'd get one final victory before retiring.  I see a Gatti late knockout in front of the hometown fans.  +250 on a KO prop wouldn't be a bad idea.

If Gatti is not shot, there is not a whole lot of powder left on his flint-lock. I'm told that AG really lived it up after his last fight. AG is as gutty a guy as you will ever come across in a lifetime, maybe 2 or 3. But for said incredible guttiness, HBO has over-hyped AG. I recall all the peeps telling me how AG would be too big for FMayJr., how he'd beat down Baldy. Neither happened. But Gomez has never been past 8 Rounds, & has no Resume` to speak of. I like AG to win a closer than it should be fight, to set up a possible Rep' making fight vs. young Chavez b4 this year ends.

As for AM vs. P.Dub. I was leaning towards the Veteran AM early on. That typed; if you follow my picks, name the last time I bet against a Lefty? I kan't even name said time. P.Dub has an 11`` Reach edge! Santos was a Lefty. J0nes was a Lefty. Dixon was a switch-hitter. Do you see a trend here??? P.Dub is a CompuBox wet-dream, dude lets his hands go & the leather flies. So I'm gonna give Paul a long look. Not sure just yet; fenced is where I am on this one.

Hanshaw & all the RJJr. training room drama has caught my interest. JPM vs. Tony was a very nice fight. if Hanshaw is seriously pissed, RJJr. might have a tough nite. Unless RJJr. tried to offend Tony early on, to try to get Tony to peak too soon. I have a close friend who's cousin used to date RJJr. in the land down under. I lost a hundy betting this was not true, until I saw the pub' photos. So I've got a little dirt under my nails for this one. But I want to see the Line move in a certain way,.......... ergo;.........now's n0t the time to ghost this pick.

I guess I like "The Love Child" for WNFs. But J2 is o-ver-ra-ted in my book.

Woods has improved just a noticeable amt. of late. But Green is the classier guy here, & he enjoys home-court. But how will he respond to the 1sided beatdown EM put on him? Woods is old, so I go w/ Jim Morrison: "...the old get old and the young get younger" and side w/ Green.

You just know I like Al.Dim w/ KPK sided up in his Corner in the Deutschland.

I hit T2 a couple of times as a u.dog. But LK is the hometeam & KPK's shadow looms large. Prolly takes a Stoppage for T2 to win. T2 is awkward, & a legit tough match-up as a Koufax Heavyweight, to be sure. But T2 has never struck me as a finisher. I like the UP for this one, as LK lacks mucho Voltage.

Cintron has always struck me as a reluctant warrior (pun intended). Though he has gone Tin-Man & show a little heart of late. But it has the cardio look and feel of forced or induced; rather than intrinsic. WDM is a finisher. He may not be a true tip-top Welter, but 25 outta 26 is no fluke in my book. This is poor match-making by CM's handlers, I really don't follow the attraction here. The only reason I like KC here is his corner, providing Manny Stew is not too worn out by the Klitschko, Lee, & Banks training camps.

GLA!
bigeiii

The "Love Child" line is/was a little low to me. CB is fairly tough, he will mix & bang a bit. But he's not a straight boxer-weaver in there, (which gave JJ his only L).

Added Green, Khan, Mitchel & Duddy back in the land of Shamrocks.

GLA!
bigeiii

Watch out on those Gatti bets!  You have to lay a lot of chalk on a fighter with some level of brain damage that's resulted from the wars he's been a part of.  He looked slow against Baldomir, and his speech has worsened over the last couple of years.  That's usually a sign that a fighter has suffered some impairment in his brain.  I'd take the +165 on Gomez because of the damaged-goods factor.

Green smoked Woods out like a fem'dog! That was beyond 1sided. My father is here this weekend, went to dinner got back for the headliner; & I'm yelling: "You'd better get in her soon Pop, this one's almost over!" Not sure what we saw 2nite? Al said he was 75%, so 100% must be pretty impressive. Hope get his Colon ills straightened out, as soft-tissue problems & Boxing can only mix for so long; & I'm in league that they should not mix at all. I'd take another tune-up, just to be sure where AG really is, IF I were an AG handler. & SG can sell some tix in OK, so why not get a nice gate, & check to make sure how AG is doing health wise in the mean-time?


bigeiii

Hey Guys,

 

We also have the much-anticipated Magarito/Wiliams fight. This could turn out to be a barnburner. Williams is a freak of nature for this weight and has showed solid skills in all of his bouts. Margarito has been around for a while, and showed some wear and tear against JC in his last fight. In fact, if JC had not hurt his hands, he would have been crowned the new champion.

 

Now, a defeat to JC is nothing to be embarrassed about, JC is a very good fighter, but Margarito took a ton of shots in that fight and Williams is much faster the JC and throws a lot of punches. This is probably a simple case of Margarito being forced to get through a series of combinations in the hopes of getting to the ample body of Williams, trying to break him down. If Williams can take just a small step back as Margarito comes forward he should be able to pick him apart all night long. Margarito has a decent beard, but he is very prone to cuts. If Williams cannot drop him with a series of shots, he may still stop him with a slice on the eye.

 

I feel Williams should be able to use his huge physical advantages (southpaw too) to keep the plodding Margarito at bay.

 

BOXEO Bets: Williams -115

 

 

Also, the former king of the ring Roy Jones Jr. is back in action against Hanshaw. We all know RJJ is faded and a shell of his former self, but I think this is a pretty decent spot for Roy to shine. Hanshaw is moving up in weight and had trouble making the 175-pound limit! I never like when a fighter is moving up in weight and has trouble making his new weight class limit. Hanshaw has also fought a slew of nobody's. The halfway decent guys he has fought… he has gone the distance with! I like RJJ to shine in this fight and basically just put a whoopin' on him (see his bout with the prince)

 

BOXEO Bets: RJJ -220

 

Just a side note, I think a small wager on WM against Cintron might be worth it. Cintron showed zero heart with Margarito and if WM can hit and hurt Cintron, you never know if he will fold again. WM has fought nobody (Williams is the best fighter he has faced) but he does have power and with Cintron that might just be enough!