Carl Froch vs Andre Ward (Sick Total Odds)

              Andre Ward vs Carl Froch
            Super Middleweight 12 Rounds
     Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey

        Carl Froch     (+305)  {o9.5 -650}
        Andre Ward   (-365)   {u9.5 +475}

      Even though I agree this fight has a very high probability of going the distance, anything can happen in a fight to prevent it from making it into the championship rounds. I really hope no one from this site even considers laying almost 7-1 with all the possibilities that could cause the fight to stop prematurely.
      The only other type of total wager I consider being a -EV in the long run because it lacks proper betting fundamentals is certain under the totals in NCAA football. A great deal has changed in the sport of American football and especially within the college ranks. I will start with some basics, like the fact that an NFL team that is +7 on the point spread will be around +280 to take the Money Line. In college football points are easier to come by so an underdog receiving +7 will be around +220 on the Money Line. The NCAA started having overtimes in the 1995 bowl seasons and then in the regular season start in 1996. If you have a game in which the point spread is low or a PK, or it is an inter-state or division rivalry, many of these games go to overtime and the way the rules favor offensive, less than 5% of OT games stay under the total.
      Many years before, in the early 90's and prior, sportsbooks and most bookies didn't figure OT as part of the total, and sometimes even the game with the spread as well. Totals should be clear that you should avoid betting the under regardless, especially in the scenarios I mentioned.
      Although I don't believe in heavily betting the over in boxing, I feel the college football under the total are a greater -EV. Now we have a fight that you have to lay almost 7-1 to make it past the halfway mark of the tenth round. At those odds someone is just begging to get a slapdown (like Tyson bettors against Douglas).
       Besides that think called a knock-out, recently we have seen fights end early in strange ways. Hopkins to a bunny hop on Dawson's back, only to get scooped and thrown down to receive an injured shoulder. Ortiz was hoping to knock Floyd's head off with the NASA lunge-jump headbutt, but moments later he was in an intense dialogue with the referee and ignored Floyd's impatience regarding that boxing thing, and how dare Floyd strike him down.
      Any accidental (or intentional) headbutt, anything including a punch causing cuts or swelling, maybe and Oliver McBreakdown, etc... I emphasize that betting huge money lines in boxing is a sin to a knowledgeable gifted boxing handicapper who also watches many bouts and waits for each fighter to have that perfect situation (to bet on him or against him) for you to make money.
     How many people strongly feel this will go to the cards very easily? Now, how many are willing to bet that -$675 to win $100??

Nope. Very small action bet on the U.

Just take Ward.

Ward by decision seems like the only bet I'll make.

I agree with the above. I have to watch a little in case I missed anything important. This seems like pure style and match-up skills, as Ward has to ability and style to shut-out Froch. Froch is to slow I feel.

The lowest odds I seen after the initial postponement was -270 Ward (+230 Froch). What site offered -200 and when?

  Mack05 :
   Ward is -400 now... when & where did you get those odds?