Boxing: MAURICIO HERRERA +800

Didn't do a deep study like usual on this fight.
RUSLAN PROVODNIKOV vs MAURICIO HERRERA.

Herrera +800 (0.5 Units)
Over 7 Rnds -130 (2.5 Units)

I feel an over, Ruslan has fought many journey-men. So I don't know if too much of that will slow him down. That's why the over and Herrera for a shot.

Ruslan sharp? where? at not jabbing? at throwing wild lead power punches?

sunset: What is Ruslan sharp at????  Dancing?

Thanks. I felt it was 50/50 fight, depends on judges and if they want punches, accuracy, etc, in a tough fight. That's a type of fight I call a draw rematch. They both fought hard, although it might not seem that way because they lack so many technicals. They should allow these fighters to rematch and get paid a 3 to 4 times as much. Hope I gave a 9-1 shot winner to someone!

CHEESE

Doesn't matter. It was a perfect storm of circumstances. Those pitty pat jabs from Herrera on Provodnikov's previously injured eye were just enough to change the fight. Also, Provodnikov didn't appear to have his lungs with him, as he was sucking air by the third round. 

And...? So you are saying that you think a rematch, you will easily lay -1000 for Provodnikov???

I was maybe 8 years old when I was told when betting NFL, with 2 bad teams, take the points. 2 mediocre fighters, take a HUGE overlay. You can't beat solid fundamentals against lackers. So,  now winning over and fight, I'm way ahead this year already. Made a 100 3 team cross sports parlay (with Herrera) into $19k+. I didn't flat the +1000 soccer team big, parlayed them with Barcelnoa even money giving 2 and over 3 goals.

Walk the line. I know you have some good analysis (not sarchasm here), but your statement doesn't add up. If Prov win 90% of the time, then laying -800 in your estimation is a +EV bet. -700 is great value according to your statement. You should be willing to wager any large overlay in a heartbeat, and Prov -750 would be to win $100 is overlaying you $135 per fight. That's very large. Most posters would reply, they weren't considering draws, or stoppage... even if that it would have to be 40% of their matches prov loses to a cut early (similar, swelling,etc) and draws. Think about it. I'm meticulous about my math and overlays and I can say, in 20 years, picking a large number of fights, not only do I believe I have a top percentage of all, my big dogs and prop bets are near the top in units earned (all units being equal). Boxing, Poker, Soccer, & I use to College Hoops Big (even had tout service). I had complaints because I only gave bets maybe 3 days and a total of 9 games. They wanted an action tout, I collected after winning week. $50 a week was my fee, I only gave Conference College Hoops (and any boxing that was Jan-Mar). I didn't give March Madness cause it's hard to handicap. I just stuck with my consistent wins and big wins,

Didn't mean to call you out, but you see my point? Maybe you were doing a quick reply and didn't consider earlier info. Thank you for the congrats. I do read your posts and have been for a long time. Keep them up, you do a great job. Maybe 10 guys on boxing forum I respect opinion, you are up in there.

GL!