Boxing 05/07/11: Manny Pacquiao vs Shane Mosley (Analysis)

Manny Pacquiao vs Shane Mosley
WBO Welterweight Title (12 Rounds)
MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Nevada

Type: Straight
Wager: Over 11.5 Rounds +150
Risk: 6.0 Units to Win 9.0 Units

Analysis: Orthodox (Mosley) vs Southpaw (Pacquiao). Both fighters are in the very best of shape which comes at no suprise. Last year on Kentucky Derby Day, Mayweather won a decisive decision over Mosley. The year before that on Kentucky Derby Day, Pacquiao knocked out Hatton in viscious style. This year on Derby Day, expect Pacquiao to win a decision over Mosley. Mosley is a counter puncher, and early in the fight expect the action to be good. After several rounds, Mosley will slow it down and try to pick his spots more after feeling the constant power and pressure from Manny. Mosley is a tough fighter, but very smart as well and after several rounds he will realize he is a big underdog trying to win a shoot-out. Therefore a slower tone for him, trying to steal rounds late and moving more. Overall he will take this option even if he feels he will lose only because it protects him. It will be very similar like it was against Mayweather. He caught Mayweather early, but Mayweather took control and Mosley took few risks. I don't like overs in fights because of cuts and swelling, but unless Manny does early damage, Mosley will play it safe.

Very informative first post. bol

what round are they in any knock downs yet

 Thank you ManassaMauler.   Good luck to you!

Tried to get the basic breakdown before the fight for any late wagers that are still on the fence on which way to go. My plays the last four weekends were much better plays but had little time to post. They started prior to my biggest and best play was Victor Ortiz. I started good, went super hot, and stayed that way and tonight I had other prop bets on the main event and the undercard but I don't want to be a past-poster (unless I'm making an example).

united511: Fight did not start yet. It will start around 9PM ringside or midnight EST.

PacMan beats Shane in less 10....Shane is past his prime and their is NO WAY he can get into prime shape to go the distance with the PacMan. 10 years ago I would be all over Shane but to last in the ring with this freak of nature Pacquaio you have to be in World Class condidtion and form. 

If Shane came to fight he would of been dropped but he was content to run around and not be embarrassed.

Good hit on yoru bet Zouk...one of the lamest efforts and big time fight I have seen in years

BTW- For all you prop bettors, Manny was +200 to win by decision earlier and it dropped to +170 minutes before the fight. My analysis was spot on... after Shane was hurt early, he slowed down the fight by moving and holding. Hope everyone cashed in on the OVER as well as any props.

IMO, this was an easy call tonight...

Smoke_O: You get fighters like Shane who have never been hurt bad and when they get hurt they get rattled. It's very common and I expected exactly what happened. It's young fighters who take the chances and throw the hands giving them a chance to win. Mosley was beat before he entered the ring.

Crowkillers: I'd agree. After the Mayweather and then Mora, I had a very good idea what Mosley had to bring to the table. I had Manny +200 win by decision and cross sports parlays using the Over +150. I posted an hour or so before the fight, and most people who were betting could only get a nice bet on the Over 11.5 rounds with odds of +150 or just under.

For fight fans expecting FIREWORKS, all you had to was watch how when Mayweather shut down Mosley, Mosley took very few chances and the fight was over. My main post was for the over, but I clearly stated Manny by decision (+200). I said it would be like Mayweather in regards to him shutting down his offense and take few risks. When Oscar fought Tito, I told everyone how boring it would be, and it was in the action category. Many fights with both big names does not mean it will be a great fight to watch for action. Plenty of movies with a Oscar nominated & Oscar winning cast and you watch the movie for 2 hours and as the credits start rolling you wonder if this is a Pilot for a series or a movie without a BANG!

I had Manny by decision at +175 and the decision at +145 and Shane at +1600 by decison for $10...

Shane had never been KO'ed, and there was no way he was going out like that..

The decision was a great play....

Same thoughts here Crowkillers. Nice shot for a hedge!

Another thing: The constant advertisements and interview of the fighters makes almost every fight look as if it were closer than odds makers made it. Mosley is a prime case, with showcasing a brilliant career. It tries to erase his most recent performances in which he was dominated in one and even matched in the other. Considering Mayweather & Mosley are to top two pound for pound fighters, did they really believe that the styles would make the fight closer? Manny dominated and they said he didn't look as superb as usual. Vernon gave Mosley trouble, and Mayweather had good control, but Shane never got beat so badly. Third in the pound for pound list was Andre Berto, and he had yet to fight a skilled tough opponent, and it was clear he didn't have a strong punch. I thought Ortiz was the best bet I've seen in boxing since Hopkins beating Pavlik at +400, and Martinez beating Pavlik around even money. I read in a handicapping article that too often we are persuaded by others opinions especially news media advertisers while the handicapper really just needs to watch the previous fights of both fighters, and I agree after a long career in handicapping that we are easily persuaded.

ZOUK the Master! It's poker Aiden. I guess your WebTeam did try and screw you over since they got the freeze from the latest online poker raid! Anyhow it's nice to see you posting and not sitting across the table staring me down. I thought it was a fake ZOUK imitator till I read up & seen the results. What's it been, a decade when you made a big losing boxing play...lol- actually that was a draw. You broke it down exact, Manny hurt him and he backed off. Are you gonna post MMA and other sports here? Feel free to PM me your link with a password, I can always use the EXTRA DUCKETS!

Switczh: I will be seeing you at the Baldwin & Ivey room rest assured. Played the total on JSP vs Shields as well as a prop on final scoring. Let's just say I was more accurate on that, then this boxing post. I was the franchise of that handicapping team and to show I posted free plays on website since the incident. They been 15-19-2 with -14.8 units since the break-up, I've gone 16-5-1 with +85.9 units. Also, all the real big players stayed with me so it's not a big deal. I'm disappointed my old team treated me that way after I built and taught them the business. DB and old crew are working on offshore still. Funny to connect with you from a single post here. Maybe I'll retire from Covers 1-0, +9.0 units with a near exact analysis of the fight before it happened. What you think?

Switczh:
I found the boxing article you requested about how organizations rank fighters (or at least this is what they say). Sent it to your email as it a larger file than I had remembered. Good luck. I'll break it down and post it with my pound-for-pound ranking guide.