Very excited for a big week of boxing and gambling. Can't wait for Saturday.
Going to try to post plays every week. Last week: +3.7 units.
Very tempted to make the ITD play on the Stingray, but can't shake the feeling that this will be a competitive fight. I expect Whitfield to get the decision, but definitely feel it goes to the cards. Going to start the week with a Fullbrights style parlay:
Whitfield/Vargas Over 9.5 rds (-400) Dawson (-360) Calzaghe by decision (-123)
1 unit to win 1.9 units
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Very excited for a big week of boxing and gambling. Can't wait for Saturday.
Going to try to post plays every week. Last week: +3.7 units.
Very tempted to make the ITD play on the Stingray, but can't shake the feeling that this will be a competitive fight. I expect Whitfield to get the decision, but definitely feel it goes to the cards. Going to start the week with a Fullbrights style parlay:
Whitfield/Vargas Over 9.5 rds (-400) Dawson (-360) Calzaghe by decision (-123)
Kermit Cintron +15.5 points handicap (+155) (KO wins) 5 units to win 7.75 units
I love this fight to go over. I like Cintron in the fight. I could see Cintron winning by stoppage. This play covers everything except a repeat of the first fight. Emmanuel Steward hasn't done much of late but I gotta believe, gotta believe he will have Cintron more ready for this fight than the first. Cintron fights are always slugfests but now he's got money in his eyes. Steward has to make him fight smarter, keep his distance and score without leaving himself open to punishment. Cintron doesn't seem like the brightest guy but he has gotta be smart enough to not let history repeat itself.
In Margarito's last two real fights (Williams, Clottey), he started slow, got way behind and rallied. He didn't knock down either man and lost rounds along the way. I'd put Cintron right around the level of Williams and Clottey. He can win enough rounds to keep this fight close. I think he can win it, but even if he doesn't if he stays on his feet like Williams and Clottey did, this bet will cash.
This is the biggest bet on boxing I've ever placed, though I haven't been on 5dimes for long, been on bookmaker only. I like Cintron to win by decision, but this bet also covers a Cintron KO or a relatively close decision in favor of Margarito. Stay on your feet Kermit!
Chad Dawson by 12 round decision (-144) 2.88 units to win 2 units
This kid is the real deal. He's fast and he's got both the fast right hook and the powerful left hand behind it. He looks like a middleweight with 175 lb. power. I'm not surprised Tarver has ducked him. Glen Johnson is a good test for him and he's only been stopped once in his career. He's tough enough to see the final bell but Dawson will win round after round.
Antonio Tarver (-110) 2.2 units to win 2 units
I talked about this in another discussion. This play scares me but if Tarver wants another money fight or two, he'll have to come ready to fight. He's got the skill and the power to beat Woods and he is fighting in his backyard while Woods is leaving the comforts of the UK. If the bad Tarver shows up, I'm in trouble, but If he's truly back he'll take care of business.
I'm going to play the Cotto fight and Sylvester but I am waiting a while to figure out what play and how much.
All right, lets get some action down . . .
Kermit Cintron +15.5 points handicap (+155) (KO wins) 5 units to win 7.75 units
I love this fight to go over. I like Cintron in the fight. I could see Cintron winning by stoppage. This play covers everything except a repeat of the first fight. Emmanuel Steward hasn't done much of late but I gotta believe, gotta believe he will have Cintron more ready for this fight than the first. Cintron fights are always slugfests but now he's got money in his eyes. Steward has to make him fight smarter, keep his distance and score without leaving himself open to punishment. Cintron doesn't seem like the brightest guy but he has gotta be smart enough to not let history repeat itself.
In Margarito's last two real fights (Williams, Clottey), he started slow, got way behind and rallied. He didn't knock down either man and lost rounds along the way. I'd put Cintron right around the level of Williams and Clottey. He can win enough rounds to keep this fight close. I think he can win it, but even if he doesn't if he stays on his feet like Williams and Clottey did, this bet will cash.
This is the biggest bet on boxing I've ever placed, though I haven't been on 5dimes for long, been on bookmaker only. I like Cintron to win by decision, but this bet also covers a Cintron KO or a relatively close decision in favor of Margarito. Stay on your feet Kermit!
Chad Dawson by 12 round decision (-144) 2.88 units to win 2 units
This kid is the real deal. He's fast and he's got both the fast right hook and the powerful left hand behind it. He looks like a middleweight with 175 lb. power. I'm not surprised Tarver has ducked him. Glen Johnson is a good test for him and he's only been stopped once in his career. He's tough enough to see the final bell but Dawson will win round after round.
Antonio Tarver (-110) 2.2 units to win 2 units
I talked about this in another discussion. This play scares me but if Tarver wants another money fight or two, he'll have to come ready to fight. He's got the skill and the power to beat Woods and he is fighting in his backyard while Woods is leaving the comforts of the UK. If the bad Tarver shows up, I'm in trouble, but If he's truly back he'll take care of business.
I'm going to play the Cotto fight and Sylvester but I am waiting a while to figure out what play and how much.
I don't like either of these guys to the point where I am kind of
confused as to why this is on Shobox. That said, I look at it as a toss
up fight and don't see any reason Lopez would be laying 2-1.
Cotto/Gomez Over 9.5 rounds (+130) 1 unit to win 1.3 units
Finally getting a couple people on the board who like this play. I was
hoping this would go up a bit but it has stayed steady so I'll take it
now. I know Cotto is going to win this fight easily. He's too skilled
for Gomez to even compete. That said, he has shown the tendency to go
rounds in 4 of his last 5 fights. Gomez, meanwhile, has stayed upright
in all his fights, as high as middleweight. He's a tough kid that
doesn't deserve this fight but I expect him to be game. Do I think he
can do what Shane Mosley did to Cotto? No. But I do think he can do
what Oktay Urkal did and that is take Cotto into the late rounds. Worth
a small play at + odds, though I realize I am in a major minority here.
Parlay centered around the over in Cintron. . .
.53 units to win 3 units
Bruseles/Tackie Over 9.5 (-390)
McGirt (-400)
Cintron/Marg Over (+145)
Dawson (-360)
Calzaghe (-270)
All right, that should do it.
adding. . .
Edgar Santana (+168) .6 units to win 1 unit
I don't like either of these guys to the point where I am kind of
confused as to why this is on Shobox. That said, I look at it as a toss
up fight and don't see any reason Lopez would be laying 2-1.
Cotto/Gomez Over 9.5 rounds (+130) 1 unit to win 1.3 units
Finally getting a couple people on the board who like this play. I was
hoping this would go up a bit but it has stayed steady so I'll take it
now. I know Cotto is going to win this fight easily. He's too skilled
for Gomez to even compete. That said, he has shown the tendency to go
rounds in 4 of his last 5 fights. Gomez, meanwhile, has stayed upright
in all his fights, as high as middleweight. He's a tough kid that
doesn't deserve this fight but I expect him to be game. Do I think he
can do what Shane Mosley did to Cotto? No. But I do think he can do
what Oktay Urkal did and that is take Cotto into the late rounds. Worth
a small play at + odds, though I realize I am in a major minority here.
Parlay centered around the over in Cintron. . .
.53 units to win 3 units
Bruseles/Tackie Over 9.5 (-390)
McGirt (-400)
Cintron/Marg Over (+145)
Dawson (-360)
Calzaghe (-270)
Thanks man, hate to go against you but I just don't see another Margarito blowout.
That prop is a white knuckle play man, but I think you have a fair shot. You just know at some point, hopefully not early, almost certainly late, Cintron is going to be hanging on for dear life. Have a couple drinks in you if you're watching live.
Quote Originally Posted by HakAttack1:
Thanks man, hate to go against you but I just don't see another Margarito blowout.
That prop is a white knuckle play man, but I think you have a fair shot. You just know at some point, hopefully not early, almost certainly late, Cintron is going to be hanging on for dear life. Have a couple drinks in you if you're watching live.
Eek out the win with Santana but lose the long odds parlay when McGirt
gets walloped. I don't know what black bottle De Leon drank from in the
corner, but he went from out on his feet to knocking the hell out of
McGirt really quickly. McGirt had the scorecards in his pocket and just
couldn't handle the barrage. Oh well, great fight.
I had the Santana fight 94-94 with Santana winning the 5th, 6th, 7th,
9th and 10th. I also gave him the 1st and I thought that was close. I
thought Lopez clearly won the 2nd, 3 and 4th coupled with the 10-7
round and thats a draw. I don't know where the extra round came from,
but I'll take a little luck.
Won 1 unit on Santana, lose .53 units on the parlay.
1-1, up .47 units heading into a big Saturday.
Eek out the win with Santana but lose the long odds parlay when McGirt
gets walloped. I don't know what black bottle De Leon drank from in the
corner, but he went from out on his feet to knocking the hell out of
McGirt really quickly. McGirt had the scorecards in his pocket and just
couldn't handle the barrage. Oh well, great fight.
I had the Santana fight 94-94 with Santana winning the 5th, 6th, 7th,
9th and 10th. I also gave him the 1st and I thought that was close. I
thought Lopez clearly won the 2nd, 3 and 4th coupled with the 10-7
round and thats a draw. I don't know where the extra round came from,
but I'll take a little luck.
Won 1 unit on Santana, lose .53 units on the parlay.
Just got back from a trip and watched both cards on DVR. Watched Showtime first and was feeling great. Needless to say HBO was never promising for me at any point. I stepped out and put my faith in Emmanuel Steward. All I needed was a different result than in '05 and it was deja vu. I probably fell for a suckers bet I guess. That is the last time I'll let a trainer overshadow the boxer he trains and common sense. Still, that was not the Margarito I had seen in the Williams and Clottey fights. He must smell blood when he sees Kermie.
As for Cotto, wow. He's always impressive so you'd think it would be hard for him to impress against a guy like Gomez but he really did. Hopefully Marg was impressive enough to get us a good price on Cotto in July. I wanted the over, but I also didn't want to see someone get hurt. Why Gomez was allowed to even finish that last round, I'll never understand. Tough kid though, Cintron would have been crying by round 2.
Showtime salvaged the weekend and I didn't lose as much as I could have thanks to the close Dawson decision (I had it a draw, gotta feel for Glen) and Tarver. End up losing a unit and a half for the weekend, but carry a 1 unit parlay into next week with the pride of Wales in a decision to win 1.9 unit. I'll take that.
Week: -1.53 units Posted Plays: +2.2 units
Open: 1 unit to win 1.9 units
Whitfield/Vargas over (win) Dawson (win) Calzaghe by decision (pending)
Just got back from a trip and watched both cards on DVR. Watched Showtime first and was feeling great. Needless to say HBO was never promising for me at any point. I stepped out and put my faith in Emmanuel Steward. All I needed was a different result than in '05 and it was deja vu. I probably fell for a suckers bet I guess. That is the last time I'll let a trainer overshadow the boxer he trains and common sense. Still, that was not the Margarito I had seen in the Williams and Clottey fights. He must smell blood when he sees Kermie.
As for Cotto, wow. He's always impressive so you'd think it would be hard for him to impress against a guy like Gomez but he really did. Hopefully Marg was impressive enough to get us a good price on Cotto in July. I wanted the over, but I also didn't want to see someone get hurt. Why Gomez was allowed to even finish that last round, I'll never understand. Tough kid though, Cintron would have been crying by round 2.
Showtime salvaged the weekend and I didn't lose as much as I could have thanks to the close Dawson decision (I had it a draw, gotta feel for Glen) and Tarver. End up losing a unit and a half for the weekend, but carry a 1 unit parlay into next week with the pride of Wales in a decision to win 1.9 unit. I'll take that.
Week: -1.53 units Posted Plays: +2.2 units
Open: 1 unit to win 1.9 units
Whitfield/Vargas over (win) Dawson (win) Calzaghe by decision (pending)
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