The only factor, and i mean ONLY factor that moves a line is money....nothing else. Books are trying to attract equal action on both sides. Period. Books are not in the business of gambling...they leave that up to us bettors. They have no idea whos going to cover ATS. They dont want to be too exposed on either side of a game so they try and balance it out as much as possible by moving the number or adjusting the vig.
Hence why the should be moving that A's line up to make the O's the more attractive pick. You see the 50/50 for most games. But those "Vegas" trap games are the ones that stick out most.
The only factor, and i mean ONLY factor that moves a line is money....nothing else. Books are trying to attract equal action on both sides. Period. Books are not in the business of gambling...they leave that up to us bettors. They have no idea whos going to cover ATS. They dont want to be too exposed on either side of a game so they try and balance it out as much as possible by moving the number or adjusting the vig.
Hence why the should be moving that A's line up to make the O's the more attractive pick. You see the 50/50 for most games. But those "Vegas" trap games are the ones that stick out most.
Totally disagree with how you study line movement, if you love the A’s today and is a regular bettor, if the line move from -200 to -120, will you still go with the A’s, I doubt that....GL
Totally disagree with how you study line movement, if you love the A’s today and is a regular bettor, if the line move from -200 to -120, will you still go with the A’s, I doubt that....GL
When i say to people ...Vegas is a business. Businesses are NOT built built by gambling money.
....people look at me perplexed.
But that is exactly it. Sports betting is based on vig. Vegas has no god d a m n idea whos gonna win a certain game. They just strive for equal action(moneywise) on each side and then collect the vig. Its not rocket science but many people think it is.
When i say to people ...Vegas is a business. Businesses are NOT built built by gambling money.
....people look at me perplexed.
But that is exactly it. Sports betting is based on vig. Vegas has no god d a m n idea whos gonna win a certain game. They just strive for equal action(moneywise) on each side and then collect the vig. Its not rocket science but many people think it is.
Totally disagree with how you study line movement, if you love the A’s today and is a regular bettor, if the line move from -200 to -120, will you still go with the A’s, I doubt that....GL
If you love the A's today and say the line move from -200 to -120 when 93% of the betters are on it, you might as well just send me a check instead!
More bets should mean an increase in the line.
More bets should NOT mean a decrease in the line. That just means TRAP.
Totally disagree with how you study line movement, if you love the A’s today and is a regular bettor, if the line move from -200 to -120, will you still go with the A’s, I doubt that....GL
If you love the A's today and say the line move from -200 to -120 when 93% of the betters are on it, you might as well just send me a check instead!
More bets should mean an increase in the line.
More bets should NOT mean a decrease in the line. That just means TRAP.
Totally disagree with how you study line movement, if you love the A’s today and is a regular bettor, if the line move from -200 to -120, will you still go with the A’s, I doubt that....GL
If you love the A's today and say the line move from -200 to -120 when 93% of the betters are on it, you might as well just send me a check instead! More bets should mean an increase in the line. More bets should NOT mean a decrease in the line. That just means TRAP. Goodluck though! We all have our opinions.
but the thing is, how do u know exactly how much people are betting on each side unless you are the bookie?
Totally disagree with how you study line movement, if you love the A’s today and is a regular bettor, if the line move from -200 to -120, will you still go with the A’s, I doubt that....GL
If you love the A's today and say the line move from -200 to -120 when 93% of the betters are on it, you might as well just send me a check instead! More bets should mean an increase in the line. More bets should NOT mean a decrease in the line. That just means TRAP. Goodluck though! We all have our opinions.
but the thing is, how do u know exactly how much people are betting on each side unless you are the bookie?
Totally disagree with how you study line movement, if you love the A’s today and is a regular bettor, if the line move from -200 to -120, will you still go with the A’s, I doubt that....GL
If you love the A's today and say the line move from -200 to -120 when 93% of the betters are on it, you might as well just send me a check instead! More bets should mean an increase in the line. More bets should NOT mean a decrease in the line. That just means TRAP. Goodluck though! We all have our opinions.
I've been using your logic in NFL and Ncaaf......it works......period!
Totally disagree with how you study line movement, if you love the A’s today and is a regular bettor, if the line move from -200 to -120, will you still go with the A’s, I doubt that....GL
If you love the A's today and say the line move from -200 to -120 when 93% of the betters are on it, you might as well just send me a check instead! More bets should mean an increase in the line. More bets should NOT mean a decrease in the line. That just means TRAP. Goodluck though! We all have our opinions.
I've been using your logic in NFL and Ncaaf......it works......period!
You guys can laugh all you want. But don't come complaining when all you A's backers lose out on the easiest trap game ever.
It's a system I've always used. Does it work 100% of the time? Hell no. I'm not saying vegas knows, but they know better than we do. They do their research like we do. They see things we don't know. They have systems and people we don't. So when you see something crazy like that. A line that drops when 93% of the betters are on it, it makes you think twice. Why is Vegas dropping that line? Sure as well aren't dropping it to make people bet on the O's. They are dropping it to make the A's more attractive.
You guys can laugh all you want. But don't come complaining when all you A's backers lose out on the easiest trap game ever.
It's a system I've always used. Does it work 100% of the time? Hell no. I'm not saying vegas knows, but they know better than we do. They do their research like we do. They see things we don't know. They have systems and people we don't. So when you see something crazy like that. A line that drops when 93% of the betters are on it, it makes you think twice. Why is Vegas dropping that line? Sure as well aren't dropping it to make people bet on the O's. They are dropping it to make the A's more attractive.
Totally disagree with how you study line movement, if you love the A’s today and is a regular bettor, if the line move from -200 to -120, will you still go with the A’s, I doubt that....GL
If you love the A's today and say the line move from -200 to -120 when 93% of the betters are on it, you might as well just send me a check instead! More bets should mean an increase in the line. More bets should NOT mean a decrease in the line. That just means TRAP. Goodluck though! We all have our opinions.
I've been using your logic in NFL and Ncaaf......it works......period!
You can use this logic in any sport. Football you watch the line movement. More people on a line means it should go up. Not down.
Totally disagree with how you study line movement, if you love the A’s today and is a regular bettor, if the line move from -200 to -120, will you still go with the A’s, I doubt that....GL
If you love the A's today and say the line move from -200 to -120 when 93% of the betters are on it, you might as well just send me a check instead! More bets should mean an increase in the line. More bets should NOT mean a decrease in the line. That just means TRAP. Goodluck though! We all have our opinions.
I've been using your logic in NFL and Ncaaf......it works......period!
You can use this logic in any sport. Football you watch the line movement. More people on a line means it should go up. Not down.
Totally disagree with how you study line movement, if you love the A’s today and is a regular bettor, if the line move from -200 to -120, will you still go with the A’s, I doubt that....GL
If you love the A's today and say the line move from -200 to -120 when 93% of the betters are on it, you might as well just send me a check instead! More bets should mean an increase in the line. More bets should NOT mean a decrease in the line. That just means TRAP. Goodluck though! We all have our opinions.
but the thing is, how do u know exactly how much people are betting on each side unless you are the bookie?
Totally disagree with how you study line movement, if you love the A’s today and is a regular bettor, if the line move from -200 to -120, will you still go with the A’s, I doubt that....GL
If you love the A's today and say the line move from -200 to -120 when 93% of the betters are on it, you might as well just send me a check instead! More bets should mean an increase in the line. More bets should NOT mean a decrease in the line. That just means TRAP. Goodluck though! We all have our opinions.
but the thing is, how do u know exactly how much people are betting on each side unless you are the bookie?
Totally disagree with how you study line movement, if you love the A’s today and is a regular bettor, if the line move from -200 to -120, will you still go with the A’s, I doubt that....GL
If you love the A's today and say the line move from -200 to -120 when 93% of the betters are on it, you might as well just send me a check instead! More bets should mean an increase in the line. More bets should NOT mean a decrease in the line. That just means TRAP. Goodluck though! We all have our opinions.
but the thing is, how do u know exactly how much people are betting on each side unless you are the bookie?
check out scoresandodds . com
SM, sent you a friend request...I agree 100% with you.....BOL
Totally disagree with how you study line movement, if you love the A’s today and is a regular bettor, if the line move from -200 to -120, will you still go with the A’s, I doubt that....GL
If you love the A's today and say the line move from -200 to -120 when 93% of the betters are on it, you might as well just send me a check instead! More bets should mean an increase in the line. More bets should NOT mean a decrease in the line. That just means TRAP. Goodluck though! We all have our opinions.
but the thing is, how do u know exactly how much people are betting on each side unless you are the bookie?
check out scoresandodds . com
SM, sent you a friend request...I agree 100% with you.....BOL
Totally disagree with how you study line movement, if you love the A’s today and is a regular bettor, if the line move from -200 to -120, will you still go with the A’s, I doubt that....GL
If you love the A's today and say the line move from -200 to -120 when 93% of the betters are on it, you might as well just send me a check instead! More bets should mean an increase in the line. More bets should NOT mean a decrease in the line. That just means TRAP. Goodluck though! We all have our opinions.
but the thing is, how do u know exactly how much people are betting on each side unless you are the bookie?
check out scoresandodds . com
SM, sent you a friend request...I agree 100% with you.....BOL
Totally disagree with how you study line movement, if you love the A’s today and is a regular bettor, if the line move from -200 to -120, will you still go with the A’s, I doubt that....GL
If you love the A's today and say the line move from -200 to -120 when 93% of the betters are on it, you might as well just send me a check instead! More bets should mean an increase in the line. More bets should NOT mean a decrease in the line. That just means TRAP. Goodluck though! We all have our opinions.
but the thing is, how do u know exactly how much people are betting on each side unless you are the bookie?
check out scoresandodds . com
SM, sent you a friend request...I agree 100% with you.....BOL
You guys can laugh all you want. But don't come complaining when all you A's backers lose out on the easiest trap game ever.
It's a system I've always used. Does it work 100% of the time? Hell no. I'm not saying vegas knows, but they know better than we do. They do their research like we do. They see things we don't know. They have systems and people we don't. So when you see something crazy like that. A line that drops when 93% of the betters are on it, it makes you think twice. Why is Vegas dropping that line? Sure as well aren't dropping it to make people bet on the O's. They are dropping it to make the A's more attractive.
Wow...
You're over thinking everything man. Vegas doesn't know anything more than anyone else.
You guys can laugh all you want. But don't come complaining when all you A's backers lose out on the easiest trap game ever.
It's a system I've always used. Does it work 100% of the time? Hell no. I'm not saying vegas knows, but they know better than we do. They do their research like we do. They see things we don't know. They have systems and people we don't. So when you see something crazy like that. A line that drops when 93% of the betters are on it, it makes you think twice. Why is Vegas dropping that line? Sure as well aren't dropping it to make people bet on the O's. They are dropping it to make the A's more attractive.
Wow...
You're over thinking everything man. Vegas doesn't know anything more than anyone else.
Ok ok you’re both a little right and also a little wrong here but I’m impressed nobody is being a d-bag to each other so I’m going to hop in.
Fact:Alien is right about it being a business... and money moves lines
What he’s not completely right about is that “Vegas” doesn’t gamble. Of course they do... just with an edge... always
Fact: many many times the books have a shaded line far different than their “true” line, knowing full well the public perception will still lead them to back the shaded team... often times they will hold this line despite taking lob sided action to the tune of 80/20 knowing that they have given themselves either points or money (spread vs moneyline) and over the course of countless repetition... they will be profitable
Another fact: “Vegas” doesn’t just move the line the other way for no reason... in order to “trap” bettors.. they have already factored this into the initial line especially on prime time and high profile or public perception games...
Fact: a line can move the opposite way of the money coming in for various reasons (they know about injury status, lineup changes and things like that... but for the sake of this convo I’ll leave that out)
If a game is taking heavy public action on one side and we see reverse line movement it is almost always do to either A) a massive amount of money from a betting syndicate has come in on the other side or B) a known respectable sharp, group of sharps, or even a runner found to be affiliated with a sharp or syndicate has placed a wager... sometimes this can even be a small wager...
When this happens often ALL of the books will react together even though some of them may not even have too much action on the “sharp “ side... this is because nobody wants to be the book with the best available line and take all of the sharp action and get caught with there pants down taking millions from a betting syndicate
Where it gets tricky is often syndicates and sharps will place small wagers on the side they do not want to take in order to move the line only to bang the other side even harder once they have moved it
Tip: be very careful with free information... sites like the one you named are showing betting percentages and often not money wagered... this is easily tampered with by books running thousands of individual small bets to each other to effect these stats... I assure you the A’s are not taking 92% action on this game... that’s way off
With that said... your thought process is right and you are working on a winning forumula... but keep reading and doing research... make sure you are paying somewhere for good information that you can count on if you want to roll with this system and remind yourself that there is much more to it and it’s not THAT simple....
Ok ok you’re both a little right and also a little wrong here but I’m impressed nobody is being a d-bag to each other so I’m going to hop in.
Fact:Alien is right about it being a business... and money moves lines
What he’s not completely right about is that “Vegas” doesn’t gamble. Of course they do... just with an edge... always
Fact: many many times the books have a shaded line far different than their “true” line, knowing full well the public perception will still lead them to back the shaded team... often times they will hold this line despite taking lob sided action to the tune of 80/20 knowing that they have given themselves either points or money (spread vs moneyline) and over the course of countless repetition... they will be profitable
Another fact: “Vegas” doesn’t just move the line the other way for no reason... in order to “trap” bettors.. they have already factored this into the initial line especially on prime time and high profile or public perception games...
Fact: a line can move the opposite way of the money coming in for various reasons (they know about injury status, lineup changes and things like that... but for the sake of this convo I’ll leave that out)
If a game is taking heavy public action on one side and we see reverse line movement it is almost always do to either A) a massive amount of money from a betting syndicate has come in on the other side or B) a known respectable sharp, group of sharps, or even a runner found to be affiliated with a sharp or syndicate has placed a wager... sometimes this can even be a small wager...
When this happens often ALL of the books will react together even though some of them may not even have too much action on the “sharp “ side... this is because nobody wants to be the book with the best available line and take all of the sharp action and get caught with there pants down taking millions from a betting syndicate
Where it gets tricky is often syndicates and sharps will place small wagers on the side they do not want to take in order to move the line only to bang the other side even harder once they have moved it
Tip: be very careful with free information... sites like the one you named are showing betting percentages and often not money wagered... this is easily tampered with by books running thousands of individual small bets to each other to effect these stats... I assure you the A’s are not taking 92% action on this game... that’s way off
With that said... your thought process is right and you are working on a winning forumula... but keep reading and doing research... make sure you are paying somewhere for good information that you can count on if you want to roll with this system and remind yourself that there is much more to it and it’s not THAT simple....
You are absolutely correct on every aspect. I have had this conversation numerous times here on covers.... my latest being an abbreviated version. im just too plain lazy to type everything you just mentioned.
You are absolutely correct on every aspect. I have had this conversation numerous times here on covers.... my latest being an abbreviated version. im just too plain lazy to type everything you just mentioned.
There was a sudden change for A's before the start of the game. O's flied from like +150 to +174 , opened at +183. I guess some people knew Cobb didnt feel well.
There was a sudden change for A's before the start of the game. O's flied from like +150 to +174 , opened at +183. I guess some people knew Cobb didnt feel well.
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