The future isn’t looking bright for many in the tech industry, with historic layoffs sweeping through the sector this year. The incredible advances in artificial intelligence are being blamed for many of these job cuts, but some argue that job losses could also be down to a slowing labor market more generally.
Traders on Kalshi are putting money on how far these job cuts could go over the course of 2026, and already the “more tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?” market has attracted huge attention. Currently, there’s over $31 million in volume, and that just keeps on rising.
Recently, we’ve seen this market spike to a staggering 88.8% chance of a 'Yes' resolution. And as staff redundancies in the thousands continue to rock tech giants, this market serves as a real-time gauge of sentiment towards the structural reset that’s happening all across Silicon Valley.
Key Takeaways:
- The 'Yes' contract currently rules the order book at a commanding 90¢, giving an 88.8% probability that 2026 will go down as a bloodier year for tech employment than 2025.
- Kalshi pricing has surged by a massive 26.9 percentage points since its late winter baselines, climbing steeply following Q1 adjustments across the industry.
- Shares for 'No' are now in value territory at just 11¢, but we’d really need to see a massive change in the industry for these contracts to pay out.
Use Promo Code COVERS
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
The Current Board: Breaking Down the Tech Layoffs Odds
This market has only moved in one direction for months. Back in February, the market sat at a tamer 65% chance as people wondered if the worst was over. But a wave of spring layoffs in a quarter that’s usually safer in terms of job cuts shattered that optimism.
Lately, the price has leveled off near its highest point, holding steady between 88.8% and 90%.
Unfortunately for the affected employees, the math does support what traders are saying here. Q1 alone saw 81,747 technology job losses, the highest quarterly figure for two years. And Q2 also hit a record high.
So far, we’ve seen over 148,000 employees lose their tech jobs this year, and we’re not yet at the half way point. That’s an average of 967 job losses every single day, with layoffs occurring across 350 different tech companies.
The market rules do state that 2025’s total was 447,000, which equates to 1,224 layoffs per day. If the current rate of job losses continues for the rest of the year, then 2026 would fall well below this. But we need to take into account the fact that where job losses are concerned, Q3 and Q4 tend to be far more damaging.
Layoffs aren’t distributed evenly throughout a calendar year. We usually see a peak in Q1, due to budget resets, a brief lull in Q2 and then a considerable acceleration in Q3 and Q4 as companies focus on year-end targets. And that’s what traders are putting money on here.
Oracle has now cut 30,000 roles, Amazon has dropped 16,000 and Meta has said goodbye to 8,000 employees (10% of its global workforce). That alone is a grim picture for the industry. Analyze the data we have at the moment and it’s easy to see why traders are backing another spike in job losses before the year ends. A turnaround before December seems highly unlikely.
Tech Layoff Odds: Prediction Market Picks for 2026 Layoffs
Prediction market traders know on platforms like Kalshi, it’s not just about picking a winner. To profit from these markets, you need to be able to find opportunities where the crowd might have overreacted or underreacted to breaking news and changes in narrative.
This is a binary market, one of the simplest that Kalshi has to offer. There are only two options to choose from, but traders can make money by buying contracts at a low price and selling them on as the market shifts.
These are the two options available right now.
Pick 1: More Tech Layoffs in 2026 than 2025 | ‘Yes’ 90¢
Even at a steep 90¢ entry price, 'Yes' still holds value because the trend of increasing redundancies in this sector shows no signs of stopping.
These cuts aren't just temporary fixes. Tech companies are actively reducing headcounts in line with advances in AI, and it’s happening across the board.
To pass 2025's total of 447,000, we need to see the continuation of the current trend and a spike in job losses later this year. Currently, sentiment suggests that a record-breaking year of layoffs is coming, which is why this is a high certainty option, deserving of its expensive price tag.
Pick 2: Fewer Tech Layoffs in 2026 than 2025 | ‘No’ 11¢
Buying 'No' at 11¢ is a cheap backup plan. At an 11% implied probability, those who risk it will win big if the current wave of layoffs dries up very suddenly.
If tech executives start to switch strategy, or the government steps in with hiring incentives, these 11¢ shares could well increase in value quite quickly. But that remains by far the less likely outcome on this market given news from the industry so far this year.
Trading Tactics: How to Play This Market
If you want to trade this contract successfully, you need to stay ahead of the news cycle and watch how companies behave, so you have a better idea of the realistic tech layoff odds for 2026 than your competitors. Here are a few tips for success on markets like this one.
- Watch the News Cycle: Monitor the trailing 30-day WARN notice filings across major tech hubs like California, Washington, and Texas, as these leading regulatory alerts tend to trigger immediate price shifts on the order books.
- The Flip Strategy: Try to secure underpriced options ahead of major quarterly corporate earnings reports. That way, you’ll be able to capitalize on the tendency of tech executives to bundle layoff announcements in with revenue disclosures to boost share values.
- Take Profits Early: Don't feel like you have to hold until December. Use this market's high trading volume to sell your shares and lock in gains whenever the price spikes.
How to Trade Tech Layoffs in 2026 on Kalshi
Setting up an account on Kalshi is straightforward. Within a few minutes, you’ll be able to link your bank account and access trading cash.
Once that’s done, you just need to head to the economics tab to find the tech layoff market. If you’ve already chosen your side, you can then buy ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ contracts and manage your position as the news cycle shifts.
- Account Setup: Verify your Kalshi account, link your bank, and deposit funds via ACH for instant trading cash.
- Find the Market: Go to the economics or employment tab and click on the 2026 tech layoffs contract.
- Place the Trade: Choose 'yes' or 'no' based on your view, enter how many shares you want, and submit.
- Track and Exit: Keep an eye on the chart. You can sell your position back to the market early to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
Tech Layoff Odds 2026 Prediction Market FAQs
The market settles using verified data from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, which gathers data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Layoffs and Discharges. If the final count shows that more tech workers lost their jobs in 2026 than the previous year's total, 'Yes' contracts win the payout. Any disputes or data revisions are cleared up by checking official regulatory filings at the end of December.
Because Kalshi originally listed the contract with an incorrect baseline figure, the platform added a special safety net rule for early traders. Anyone holding a contract before March 13, 2026, at 5:00 PM ET will get a full $1.00 payout if the total falls within this window. This extra cushion protects early 'Yes' buyers, and it’s another big reason why the market price is so high right now.
You have complete freedom to buy or sell your position at any time before the market closes for the year. Thanks to the high trading volume on this market on Kalshi, you’ll be able to cash out of your 'Yes' or 'No' contracts. This makes it easy to protect your trading cash if the daily layoff numbers suddenly start to slow down.
This prediction market focuses strictly on the final, cumulative numbers recorded at the very end of the year instead of daily headlines. If a tech giant decides to cancel a planned staff cut, the official tracking data will drop to reflect that fix. Traders need to watch these corporate updates closely because a sudden cancellation will quickly change the contract's price.
Kalshi allows individual traders to purchase multiple shares based on their personal risk tolerance and available account funding. You can easily scale your position up or down as new layoff data hits the news cycle. But it’s always a good idea to keep an eye on order book liquidity so you can easily exit your trade later if needed.
A sudden economic turnaround would likely cause tech companies to freeze their downsizing plans and start hiring again. This shift would cause 'Yes' shares to drop in value while making the cheap 11¢ 'No' shares much more valuable. Traders would quickly adjust their expectations, forcing the chart to move downward as a 'Yes' outcome becomes less certain.
