It’s being called the Mona Lisa of collectibles, and the price it might fetch in a few weeks’ time is fast becoming one of the world’s favorite talking points. Yes, you guessed it, we’re talking about a certain Pokemon card.
Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pikachu Illustrator is already a world record holder, but if Kalshi’s prediction markets are on the right lines it could soon be heading for an eight-figure payday. And that really would rewrite what’s previously been thought possible for collectibles of this kind.
Key takeaways:
- The $7M-$9M bracket is currently viewed as the floor by traders on Kalshi.
- If the card goes for over $10 million, it’d be on par with elite fine art.
- Lower-tier contracts (in the region of $5M-$6M) are trading at near-certainty levels.
The price of a ‘Yes’ for the card going over $10 million has been climbing steadily, indicating growing confidence that it really could happen.
Of course some remain skeptical of its chances, but market momentum is currently being fueled by a combination of the card’s scarcity and its celebrity connection.
The fact that Goldin, the auction house in question, offered Paul a $2.5 million advance ahead of the sale gives further weight to the narrative that this is about to go for serious money.
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What will Logan Paul’s Pikachu Illustrator go for at auction?
Trading the Logan Paul Pikachu Illustrator market: Our top three value picks
The $10 million headline may be the market everyone is watching, but finding value here involves looking beyond the top talking point to identify any mispriced options on the board.
Here are three of the top value picks available right now, based on current Kalshi sentiment.
1. At least $9 Million | 'Yes' 70¢ | Chance 70%
If you’re looking for a smart money play, at least $9 million could be one to consider. Current bidding has already cleared $6 million and we’ve still got two weeks of extended bidding to go. If bids continue to follow the trajectory we’ve seen in recent weeks, $9 million could well be within reach.
2. At least $10 Million | 'Yes' 55¢ | Chance 49%
The current coin-flip option is the $10 million point. To reach a price of this magnitude, we’d likely need a bidding war between two well-known collectors. However, the fact that Logan Paul has promised to hand deliver the card to its buyer could inflate its price even further. Let’s not underestimate the experience factor that adds (and the premium it’d result in!).
3. At least $11 Million | 'Yes' 43¢ | Chance 43%
If you’re prepared to bet on a longshot, ‘Yes’ contracts for a price over $11 million are currently in the 30-40 cent range. It’s by no means a foregone conclusion, and would need the card to fetch double what Paul bought it for.
Logan Paul’s purchase of the card in February 2021 set a new Guinness World Record for the most expensive Pokemon card sale of all time ($5.275 million). Could we see its price double in a five-year period? It’s unlikely, but definitely not impossible.
Pokémon auction market movement: What's happened since the Goldin Launch?
The market for the price the Illustrator card might fetch was decidedly speculative back in early December, leading some to question whether this was nothing more than an influencer bubble that had already begun to burst.
Things soon changed, though. In late December we saw a significant jump in pricing for ‘at least $7 million’ contracts following the debut of the card on the Netflix series King of Collectibles. Just a few weeks later, the auction went live and we witnessed the level of confidence traders had in this card’s ability to raise the stakes.
The implied probability of a record-breaking price for this tiny collectible has been soaring since the start of this year, with no sign of it slowing down. And since the start of February, traders have begun to focus on the double-digit millions.
Pikachu Illustrator PSA 10 value tracker (2021–2026)
| Year | Event | Result/Grade |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Logan Paul Purchase | $5,275,000 (PSA 10) |
| 2025 | Goldin Estimate | $7M – $12M |
| 2026 | Kalshi Prediction | $10M+ (49% Probability) |
To understand why the $10M target is so significant, we need to look back at how the estimated value of the card has climbed so far.
Logan Paul bought the card in 2021, trading in a PSA 9 card and paying an additional $4 million. It was bought in a private sale, from collector Marwan Dubsy in Dubai. The estimated total value of the purchase is $5,275,000.
Just a few years later, in 2025, a Goldin estimate put the card’s value between $7M and $12M. This might seem a rapid rise in such a short space of time, but the celebrity connection the card now has could well have ramped up its value to this degree.
Logan Paul’s Pokemon card is now more than just a Pokemon card, you see. The impact that his decision to turn it into a diamond-encrusted necklace, his accessory of choice for WrestleMania 38, cannot be understated.
By wearing the card as a necklace, Paul effectively doubled the cultural significance of the item. And that, together with Paul’s offer to hand deliver Pikachu to his new home, is why there’s now a 49% chance that the card could break the $10 million ceiling (a price point usually reserved for T206 Honus Wagner cards or original paintings).
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How auction prediction markets work
Prediction markets like Kalshi operate more like a stock exchange than a traditional sportsbook. Instead of betting against the house, you're trading event contracts with others.
Kalshi contracts are all priced between 1¢ and 99¢. The price equals the probability. So, if a contract for the Pikachu Illustrator to sell for $10M is trading at 48¢, the market believes there is a 48% chance it happens. If you’re right, the contract settles at $1.00.
Traders have a financial incentive to be right, which is why these prices are often more accurate than expert appraisals. As the February 15 deadline approaches, we fully expect these prices to fluctuate wildly with every new bid notification.
Logan Paul Pikachu Illustrator Market FAQs
The Pikachu Illustrator is the Holy Grail of Pokémon. Only 39 were originally awarded to winners of a 1997-98 Japanese illustration contest. Logan Paul’s specific copy is the only one in the world graded a perfect PSA 10 (Gem Mint), so it really is one of a kind in terms of condition.
The auction is hosted by Goldin and is scheduled to conclude on Sunday, February 15, 2026. However, extended bidding rules apply: if a bid is placed within the final minutes, the clock resets by 30 minutes, meaning the final hammer might not fall until the early hours of February 16.
Kalshi allows you to trade on the final hammer price (the winning bid plus the buyer's premium). You buy ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ contracts priced between 1¢ and 99¢. If your prediction is correct, each contract settles at $1.00; if incorrect, it goes to zero. It’s a way to profit from the auction's outcome without actually buying the card.
Yes. Goldin typically charges a 24% buyer’s premium on top of the winning bid. For prediction market purposes, the final sale price usually refers to the total amount the winner pays (Bid + Premium). For example, a $5.1 million bid currently equals a $6.32 million total price.
According to Kalshi’s standard rules, if an event does not occur or the auction is voided, the contracts are typically resolved based on the specific terms listed in the Market Rules section of the contract. Traders are encouraged to check the settlement source (usually the official Goldin auction link) specified on the trade page.
