Legal wagering on the Academy Awards is a new phenomenon for North Americans – but the truth is, Oscars betting odds have been around since Redford and Newman were conniving their way around Chicago more than 50 years ago.
From The Sting's triumphant Best Picture win as a +160 underdog in 1974 to Kieran Culkin running away with last year's Best Supporting Actor nod as a whopping -3,500 favorite, betting odds have long been part of the excitement of the build-up to the Academy Awards – you just couldn't bet on them legally until recently.
Here's a look at the storied history of Academy Awards betting odds as we prepare for the 98th edition of the Oscars, set for March 15, 2026.
(Odds courtesy Sports Odds History)
🍿 Best Picture
It has been quite a run for the betting favorites, who have swept the post-COVID Best Picture category, starting with Nomadland's victory as a -550 lock in 2021.
We may never see a favorite as hefty as Oppenheimer again. It stands to reason that as the Oscars market becomes sharper over time, underdogs winning might be even scarcer. We can only look back fondly now at the salad days of plus-money winners, starting with Spotlight (+350) in 2016 and continuing through Parasite's surprising victory at +173 in 2020.
But none can hold a candle to Mel Gibson's magnum opus. Braveheart (+600) earned one of the most shocking conquests in Academy Awards history, upending considerable favorite Sense and Sensibility (-125).
🎬 Best Director
Best Director has turned out to be one of the most predictable of the major awards, with underdogs winning just three times since 2010.
It gets even more lopsided when you consider the closing odds of the four winners before Sean Baker. Christopher Nolan was the largest-ever winning favorite for Oppenheimer, Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert finished at -2000 for Everything Everywhere All at Once, Jane Campion closed at -5000 for The Power of the Dog, and Chloe Zhao was a -2000 closing favorite for Nomadland.
The fact that the longest-ever Best Director winner came in at a modest +310 tells you just how dialed in oddsmakers are to which directors are likely to leave with an Oscar.
🏆 Best Actor
Favorites dominate this category like no other – and Adrien Brody's win at "just" -250 in 2025 is the exception these days rather than the norm.
From Cillian Murphy (-1900) in 2024 to Will Smith (-1000) in 2022 to Joaquin Phoenix (-4150) in 2020, big-time chalk plays have been the order of the day here. In fact, Anthony Hopkins' stunning victory for his lead role in The Father in 2021 as a +600 underdog is the only plus-money Best Actor result to cash since 2009.
Brody's first Best Actor win was also the unlikeliest in the history of Oscars betting odds, as he triumphed over legends Jack Nicholson (+100) and Daniel Day-Lewis (+120) to cop the victory for The Pianist in 2003.
👑 Best Actress
While the Best Actor closing odds have virtually mirrored the final results for the better part of two decades, things have been decidedly less predictable on the Best Actress side of the ledger.
Madison's upset win over Demi Moore (The Substance, -250) gave underdog bettors yet another win in the category; there has only been one favorite of -250 or lower to win since 2019, with Renee Zellweger finishing at -1175 for her Judy triumph in 2020.
Susan Sarandon, meanwhile, remains a fixture in history for her out-of-the-blue 1996 win in a loaded Best Actress category that included Emma Thompson, Sharon Stone, Elisabeth Shue, and the legendary Meryl Streep. Sarandon was the No. 4 favorite entering Sunday, making this one of the biggest surprises in Oscars history.
🎭 Best Supporting Actor
You aren't sneaking a Best Supporting Actor winner past bookmakers these days. No, sir.
Going back to 2008, only two Oscar victors in this category have had odds longer than -550. It is a string of closing-line dominance unparalleled in Academy Awards history – and has only grown in intensity in recent years, with each of the last three winners coming in at -3500 or shorter.
It should tell you all you need to know that Nicholson's +600 win for Terms of Endearment – beating out +300 favorite Sam Shepard (The Right Stuff) – is still the biggest betting upset in Best Supporting Actor history, more than four decades later.
🎞️ Best Supporting Actress
Another serving of chalk, my friend?
The Best Supporting Actress award has seen just one underdog winner since Tilda Swinton's stunning victory nearly 20 years ago; Jamie Lee Curtis (+110) almost qualified for her 2022 win for Everything Everywhere All at Once, narrowly edging out Angela Bassett (+150) in the closing odds.
With four of the previous six winners coming in at -1650 or shorter in the closing odds, it seems as if finding an edge in this category is as tough as it gets. And that's not a new development, either, with Anne Hathaway, Patricia Arquette (Boyhood, 2013, -4500), and Viola Davis (Fences, 2017, -4000) among recent one-sided winners.
