One of the biggest bellwethers of awards season, the Golden Globes, has come and gone, and its ripple effect will be felt as we approach the Academy Awards nominations. Those will be announced on Thursday, January 22.
Best Picture appears to be a two-horse race between favorite One Battle After Another and Hamnet, but a lot can happen as the respective guild awards are announced between now and Oscar night on Sunday, March 15.
Here are the latest 2026 Oscars odds.
Odds to win Best Picture
| Film | Studio/Distributor |  |
|---|---|---|
| One Battle After Another | Warner Bros. | -800 |
| Hamnet | Focus Features | +550 |
| Sinners | Warner Bros. | +1200 |
| Marty Supreme | A24 | +1400 |
| Sentimental Value | Neon | +5000 |
| Rental Family | Searchlight Pictures | +5000 |
| Avatar: Fire and Ash | 20th Century Studios | +5000 |
| Sorry Baby | A24 | +5000 |
| Bugonia | Focus Features/Universal Pictures | +5000 |
| No Other Choice | Neon | +5000 |
| Alpha | Neon | +5000 |
| Wicked: For Good | Universal Pictures | +5000 |
| The Life of Chuck | Neon | +5000 |
| Jay Kelly | Netflix | +5000 |
| Frankenstein | Netflix | +5000 |
| After the Hunt | Amazon MGM Studios | +5000 |
| It Was Just an Accident | Neon | +5000 |
| Train Dreams | Netflix | +5000 |
| Nouvelle Vague Caught Stealing | Netflix Columbia Pictures/Sony Pictures Releasing | +5000 |
| Deliver Me From Nowhere | 20th Century Studios | +5000 |
| Die My Love | MUBI | +6500 |
| The Phoenician Scheme | Focus Features/Universal Pictures | +6500 |
| Highest 2 Lowest | Apple | +6500 |
| The Smashing Machine | A24 | +6500 |
| Song Sung Blue | Focus Features/Universal Pictures | +10000 |
| The Lost Bus | Apple | +10000 |
| Anemone | Plan B Entertainment | +10000 |
| F1 | Apple | +10000 |
| The History of Sound | MUBI | +10000 |
| Eddington | A24 | +10000 |
| Caught Stealing | Columbia Pictures | +10000 |
| Roofman | Paramount Pictures | +15000 |
| Is This Thing On? | Searchlight Pictures | +15000 |
| Weapons | Warner Bros. | +15000 |
| Ella McCay | 20th Century Studios | +15000 |
| The Testament of Ann Lee | Searchlight Pictures | +20000 |
Odds as of 1-12.
Even with Hamnet winning Best Picture - Drama at the Golden Globes, One Battle After Another remains the favorite. It won the other top prize, and there's an argument that it should have been in Drama, anyway (that delineation makes less and less sense every year).
The nominations will whittle this list down to 10, but it looks like it's One Battle After Another's award to lose, though a weepy Shakespearean drama (complete with William Shakespeare as one of the roles) can't be entirely counted out.
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Odds to win Best Director
| Director | |
|---|---|
| Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) | -1800 |
| Ryan Coogler (Sinners) | +1000 |
| Chloe Zhao (Hamnet) | +1400 |
| Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident) | +2500 |
| Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein) | +3500 |
| Park Chan-wook (No Other Choice) | +4000 |
| Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) | +4000 |
| Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value) | +4000 |
| Paul Greengrass (The Lost Bus) | +5000 |
| Noah Baumbach (Jay Kelly) | +5000 |
| Kleber Menconca Filho (The Secret Agent) | +5000 |
| Kathryn Bigelow (A House of Dynamite) | +5000 |
| Jon M. Chu (Wicked: For Good) | +5000 |
| Benny Safdie (The Smashing Machine) | +5000 |
| Hikari (Rental Family) | +5000 |
| Bradley Cooper (Is This Thing On?) | +5000 |
| Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia) | +6500 |
| Nia DaCosta (Hedda) | +6500 |
| James Cameron (Avatar: Fire and Ash) | +6500 |
| Richard Linklater (Nouvelle Vague) | +10000 |
| Edward Berger (Ballad of a Small Player) | +10000 |
| Ronan Day-Lewis (Anemone) | +10000 |
| Luca Guadagnino (After the Hunt) | +10000 |
| Scott Cooper (Deliver Me From Nowhere) | +10000 |
| Kogonada (A Big Bold Beautiful Journey) | +10000 |
| Derek Cianfrance (Roofman) | +10000 |
| Rian Johnson (Wake Up Dead Man) | +10000 |
| Mike Flanagan (The Life of Chuck) | +10000 |
The Best Director odds mirror Best Picture's, especially up top, and Paul Thomas Anderson's (One Battle After Another) time in the sun is starting to feel inevitable after claiming the honor at the Golden Globes.
Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident) had some momentum in early December, but his odds have reverted to +2500.
PTA, Ryan Coogler, Chloe Zhao, Guillermo del Toro, and Panahi are the five names I expect will be in the running when nominations are announced. This is a big shift for del Toro in particular. While his +3500 is the same as it was a month ago, those above him at the time (Kathryn Bigelow, Noah Baumbach, others) have all cratered.
The Academy loves del Toro, and even if Frankenstein was met with muted reactions, he can't be ignored. Still, a win feels far-fetched.
Odds to win Best Actor
| Actor | |
|---|---|
| Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme) | -500 |
| Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) | +500 |
| Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) | +700 |
| Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) | +1600 |
| Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) | +2500 |
| Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams) | +4000 |
| Will Arnett (Is This Thing On?) | +5000 |
| Vahid Mobasseri (It Was Just an Accident) | +5000 |
| Jeremy Allen White (Deliver Me From Nowhere) | +5000 |
| George Clooney (Jay Kelly) | +5000 |
| Hugh Jackman (Song Sung Blue) | +5000 |
| Brendan Fraser (Rental Family) | +5000 |
| Matthew McConaughey (The Lost Bus) | +5000 |
| Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine) | +5000 |
| Jesse Plemons (Bugonia) | +5000 |
| Colin Farrell (Ballad of a Small Player) | +5000 |
| Daniel Day-Lewis (Anemone) | +5000 |
| Paul Mescal (Hamnet) | +5000 |
| Sergi Lopez (Sirat) | +5000 |
| Austin Butler (Caught Stealing) | +5000 |
| Channing Tatum (Roofman) | +5000 |
| Lee Byung-hun (No Other Choice) | +5000 |
| Tom Hiddleston (The Life of Chuck) | +5000 |
| Denzel Washington (Highest 2 Lowest) | +5000 |
| Oscar Isaac (Frankenstein) | +5000 |
It's looking more and more likely that a) Timothee Chalamet wins Best Actor for Marty Supreme and b) Dwayne Johnson misses out on a nomination for The Smashing Machine.
Once upon a time, Johnson was seen as a favorite in the category for his role as MMA fighter Mark Kerr, but whether due to the movie underperforming critically and at the box office or something else going wrong during the campaign, he's no longer in the picture.
Instead, Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) have seen their stock rise to join Chalamet and Leonardo DiCaprio. That fifth spot could still be Johnson's, but Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) and Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams) are looking more likely at the moment.
Odds to win Best Actress
| Actress | |
|---|---|
| Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) | -1400 |
| Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You) | +700 |
| Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) | +2000 |
| Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another) | +3500 |
| Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good) | +3500 |
| Emma Stone (Bugonia) | +3500 |
| Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee) | +3500 |
| Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) | +3500 |
| Jennifer Lawrence (Die My Love) | +4000 |
| Sydney Sweeney (Christy) | +4000 |
| Jodie Foster (Vie Privee) | +4000 |
| Mariam Afshari (It Was Just an Accident) | +4000 |
| Laura Dern (Is This Thing On?) | +4000 |
| Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine) | +4000 |
| Tessa Thompson (Hedda) | +4000 |
| Saja Kilani (The Voice of Hind Rajib) | +4000 |
| June Squibb (Eleanor the Great) | +4000 |
| Cate Blanchett (Father Mother Sister Brother) | +4000 |
| Julia Roberts (After the Hunt) | +4000 |
| Eva Victor (Sorry Baby) | +4000 |
Jessie Buckley remains way ahead of the pack for her role in Chloe Zhao's Hamnet, and it might be foolish to try to predict a dark horse.
She won the Golden Globe and has won everywhere along the way in one of those "this was decided upon months ago" ways. That's not meant to denigrate the performance, either. Even if Hamnet has detractors, Buckley is generally not seen as one of the film's weaknesses.
Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You) seems like the most believable alternative, with Renate Reinsve and Chase Infiniti on solid footing for nominations.
The more interesting market would be "who gets the fifth nomination?" For a time, Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good) was a logical option, but that movie's tepid response and underwhelming box office relative to the first movie may have doomed just about everyone from that film (except Ariana Grande).
This could mean Oscars favorite Emma Stone gets the final nom in a crowded field.
Odds to win Best Supporting Actor
| Actress | |
|---|---|
| Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value) | -150 |
| Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) | +260 |
| Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) | +350 |
| Benicio Del Toro (One Battle After Another) | +500 |
| Paul Mescal (Hamnet) | +3500 |
| Sean Bean (Anemone) | +6500 |
| Miles Caton (Sinners) | +6500 |
| Delroy Lindo (Sinners) | +6500 |
| Josh O'Connor (Wake Up Dead Man) | +6500 |
| Jeremy Strong (Deliver Me From Nowhere) | +6500 |
| Akira Emoto (Rental Family) | +6500 |
| Diego Luna (Kiss of the Spider Woman) | +6500 |
| Jack O'Connell (Sinners) | +6500 |
| Bradley Cooper (Is This Thing On?) | +6500 |
| Andrew Garfield (After the Hunt) | +6500 |
| Jonathan Bailey (Wicked: For Good) | +6500 |
| Jacobi Jupe (Hamnet) | +6500 |
| Idris Elba (A House of Dynamite) | +6500 |
| Dylan O'Brien (Twinless) | +6500 |
| Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) | +10000 |
| William H. Macy (Train Dreams) | +15000 |
| Leo Woodall (Nuremberg) | +15000 |
| Ben Foster (Christy) | +15000 |
| Andrew Scott (Blue Moon) | +15000 |
After Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another) won a smattering of awards in late autumn, it seemed to shift this race. However, now that Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value) has won at the Golden Globes, he's back in the frontrunner position.
Funny how that works.
Odds to win Best Supporting Actress
| Actress | |
|---|---|
| Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) | -175 |
| Amy Madigan (Weapons) | +175 |
| Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value) | +800 |
| Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) | +1600 |
| Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) | +3500 |
| Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) | +3500 |
| Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine) | +3500 |
| Laura Dern (Jay Kelly) | +5000 |
| Kirsten Dunst (Roofman) | +5000 |
| Jennifer Lopez (Kiss of the Spider Woman) | +5000 |
| Rebecca Ferguson (A House of Dynamite) | +6500 |
| Regina Hall (One Battle After Another) | +6500 |
| Nina Hoss (Hedda) | +6500 |
| Hailee Steinfeld (Sinners) | +6500 |
| Gwyneth Paltrow (Marty Supreme) | +6500 |
| Mari Yamamoto (Rental Family) | +6500 |
| Glenn Close (Wake Up Dead Man) | +8000 |
A month ago, Ariana Grande (Wicked For Good) was the betting favorite at +100. Being at EVEN money already suggested that her grip on the top spot was tenuous at best, and the last month has revealed that to be an accurate assessment.
Amy Madigan (Weapons) briefly looked like a buzzsaw before Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) reclaimed favorite status after winning at the Globes.
Along with Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value), that may wrap up four of the nominees. The fifth might come down to Wumi Mosaku (Sinners), Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), and Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine), but it's also hard to rule out Gwyneth Paltrow (Marty Supreme) even if her odds have dropped.
Academy Awards Odds FAQ
Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another is the current betting favorite.
Paul Thomas Anderson has the shortest odds to win Best Director.
Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme) and Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) are the current favorites.
The 2026 Oscars are scheduled for March 15, 2026 at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood.
Sean Baker's Anora won Best Picture in 2025 after emerging as a surprise frontrunner during the fall festival season.
Celebrated indie auteur Sean Baker, whose film Anora won Best Picture, took home the honors.
Mikey Madison won Best Actress for her titular role in Anora while Adrien Brody won for The Brutalist. It was Madison's first nomination while Brody previously won for The Pianist in 2003.
