Oscars 2026 Odds, Picks, and Betting Updates

At long last, we're but a week away from the 98th Academy Awards.

But even as we get closer to Oscar night, we're still seeing movement, particularly in Best Actor, where Michael B. Jordan has taken over as the favorite. Below, we'll see which categories have been affected by recent precursors and where we can still find the best prediction markets value.

Conan O'Brien hosts the 2026 Oscars on Sunday, March 15, live from the Dolby Theater in Hollywood, at 7 p.m. ET.

2026 Oscars predictions

Predictions made on February 16, 2026.

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Odds to win Best Picture

Best Picture Nominees

• Bugonia
• F1
• Frankenstein
• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme
• One Battle After Another
• The Secret Agent
• Sentimental Value
• Sinners
• Train Dreams

"Sinners" may lead the way with nominations, but it is not the frontrunner when it comes to Best Picture prediction market odds. That honor still belongs to "One Battle After Another," which received 13 nominations and has been earmarked for the show's top honor since its release in August.

If any movie is in a position to usurp the action/comedy/thriller, it is "Sinners," which currently boasts a 24% chance at emerging victorious. The Shakespeare drama "Hamnet" is a distant third at 3% and lagging in odds to win Best Picture.

Prediction: "One Battle After Another"

Odds to win Best Director

Best Director Nominees

• Paul Thomas Anderson ("One Battle After Another")
• Ryan Coogler ("Sinners")
• Josh Safdie ("Marty Supreme")
• Joachim Trier ("Sentimental Value")
• Chloe Zhao ("Hamnet")

Paul Thomas Anderson won at the Directors Guild Awards, which may have wrapped this category up entirely. Since 1948, when the DGA first handed out the award, only eight winners have failed to subsequently capture the Best Director Oscar, with the most recent instance coming when Sam Mendes lost to Bong Joon-ho in 2019. 

Best Director prediction markets reflect this trend, listing PTA as a borderline lock.

Prediction: Paul Thomas Anderson

Odds to win Best Actor

Best Actor Nominees

• Timothee Chalamet ("Marty Supreme")
• Leonardo DiCaprio ("One Battle After Another")
• Ethan Hawke ("Blue Moon")
• Michael B. Jordan ("Sinners")
• Wagner Moura ("The Secret Agent")

Best Actor was in the bag for Timothee Chalamet for much of the fall and through the nomination cycle, but it's become less and less of a certainty as time has gone on. None of the nominees won the BAFTA, and then Michael B. Jordan took home the honors at the Actor Awards. Not only has the race tightened in Best Actor prediction markets, but Jordan is now favored 50% to Chalamet's 44%.

It's not a two-role race, even though the category is heavily weighted toward that pair. Leonardo DiCaprio, who is running third, could absolutely split the middle. But I'd be more inclined to take either Wagner Moura or Ethan Hawke as a true dark horse.

My original pick of Chalamet is feeling less and less comfortable — could he be the victim of an Oscar curse? — and I'd likely shift toward Hawke to take advantage of a longer shot with such uncertainty abounding. However, the further this trends in Jordan's direction, it could present value on Chalamet on Oscar night.

Prediction: Timothee Chalamet

Odds to win Best Actress

Best Actress Nominees

• Jessie Buckley ("Hamnet")
• Rose Byrne ("If I Had Legs I'd Kick You")
• Kate Hudson ("Song Sung Blue")
• Renate Reinsve ("Sentimental Value")
• Emma Stone ("Bugonia")

Kate Hudson is a bit of a surprise as the fifth Best Actress nominee, and her Academy Award odds reflect it, considering Chase Infiniti was considered a strong possibility for a nomination. Still, Jessie Buckley was more or less announced as the frontrunner when "Hamnet" debuted at festivals, and she hasn't relinquished any ground.

Rose Byrne appeared to have momentum, jumping to 30.6% probability in late December, but that has since cratered to 4% in Best Actress prediction markets, with Buckley in firm command of the category after winning again at SAG.

Prediction: Jessie Buckley

Odds to win Best Supporting Actor

Best Supporting Actor Nominees

• Benicio del Toro ("One Battle After Another")
• Jacob Elordi ("Frankenstein")
• Delroy Lindo ("Sinners")
• Sean Penn ("One Battle After Another")
• Stellan Skarsgard ("Sentimental Value")

Sean Penn won at the BAFTAs and at SAG, making Stellan Skarsgard's win at the Golden Globes feel like a distant memory. Now, will he actually attend the ceremony after staying home at both of those precursors?

Penn now has a 70% chance of winning at Kalshi, representing some of the biggest movement at prediction markets. Penn's co-star in "One Battle After Another," Benicio del Toro, has seemingly dropped out of the competition, though the door has opened for Delroy Lindo, who is at a distant third with an 8% shot.

I had del Toro here, but that doesn't feel like the winning pick now.

Prediction: Benicio del Toro

Odds to win Best Supporting Actress

Best Supporting Actress Nominees

• Elle Fanning ("Sentimental Value")
• Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas ("Sentimental Value")
• Amy Madigan ("Weapons")
• Wunmi Mosaku ("Sinners")
• Teyana Taylor ("One Battle After Another")

This category has been a total yo-yo, with Amy Madigan BACK at the top of the odds after her SAG win. Wunmi Mosaku won at the BAFTAs, and Teyana Taylor got the Golden Globe.

In a way, I don't think this has actually hurt my initial prediction of Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, but there is a shot that she and Elle Fanning are cancelling each other out for their performances in "Sentimental Value."

Prediction: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas

Odds to win Best Original Screenplay

Best Original Screenplay Nominees

• Ryan Coogler ("Sinners")
• Robert Kaplow ("Blue Moon")
• Jafar Panahi ("It Was Just an Accident")
• Josh Safdie, Ronald Bronstein ("Marty Supreme")
• Joachim Trier, Eskil Vogt ("Sentimental Value")

Ryan Coogler seems positioned to be rewarded here instead of in Best Director, with an 95% chance of winning. Jafar Panahi is a fun alternative option, but "It Was Just An Accident" being left out of the Best Picture race, combined with his absence in Best Director, makes that unlikely. However, this would be an opportunity to get a global icon on the stage that might not otherwise present itself.

Prediction: "Sinners"

Odds to win Best Adapted Screenplay

Best Adapted Screenplay Nominees

• Paul Thomas Anderson ("One Battle After Another")
• Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar ("Train Dreams")
• Guillermo del Toro ("Frankenstein")
• Will Tracy ("Bugonia")
• Chloe Zhao, Maggie O'Farrell ("Hamnet")

If you've ever read any Thomas Pynchon, the idea that one of his novels could be adapted at all, let alone be nominated for an Academy Award, is absurd. And yet, Paul Thomas Anderson's VERY LOOSE interpretation of "Vineland" is the frontrunner in the Best Adapted Screenplay category. 

And while it won't win, Will Tracy's "Bugonia" script reinterprets the 2003 Korean film, "Save the Green Planet!", and is an inspired choice.

Prediction: "One Battle After Another"

Odds to win Best Documentary Feature

Best Documentary Feature Nominees

• The Alabama Solution
• Come See Me in the Good Light
• Cutting Through Rocks
• Mr. Nobody Against Putin
• The Perfect Neighbor

While it's somewhat surprising that Laura Poitras' Seymour Hersh documentary, "Cover-Up," was left behind, this has seemed like "The Perfect Neighbor's" category. And at 67%, its odds have rebounded after a brief dip in early February.

Prediction: "The Perfect Neighbor"

Odds to win Best International Feature

Best International Feature Nominees

• It Was Just an Accident
• The Secret Agent
• Sentimental Value
• Sirat
• The Voice of Hind Rajab

Even though both "The Secret Agent" and "Sentimental Value" are present in the Best Picture race, it wouldn't be wise to write "It Was Just an Accident" off entirely. "Sentimental Value" is being treated like the frontrunner at 66% probability, and that makes sense, but Jafar Panahi's film being represented in Best Original Screenplay at least shows it's not getting lost in the shuffle.

By that same logic, Wagner Moura's Best Actor nomination and "The Secret Agent" getting a somewhat surprising Best Picture nod keep it alive here. This is an exciting category, and all five films are critically lauded. I'll go with "The Secret Agent" as a slight upset.

Prediction: "The Secret Agent"

Odds to win Best Animated Feature

Best Animated Feature Nominees

• Arco
• Elio
• KPop Demon Hunters
• Little Amelie or the Character of Rain
• Zootopia 2

"KPop Demon Hunters" is winning. 

Prediction: "KPop Demon Hunters"

Odds to win Best Film Editing

Best Film Editing Nominees

• Olivier Bugge Coutte ("Sentimental Value")
• Andy Jugensen ("One Battle After Another")
• Stephen Mirrione ("F1")
• Josh Safdie, Ronald Bronstein ("Marty Supreme")
• Michael P. Shawver ("Sinners")

Here's another category that seems to belong to "One Battle After Another," but it could also be one of the only spots that "F1" has a shot to break into. 

Prediction: "One Battle After Another"

Odds to win Best Cinematography

Best Cinematography Nominees

• Michael Bauman ("One Battle After Another")
• Autumn Durald ("Sinners")
• Darius Khondji ("Marty Supreme")
• Dan Laustsen ("Frankenstein")
• Adolpho Veloso ("Train Dreams")

Michael Bauman and Autumn Durald have swapped spots after the former won at the BAFTAs.

However, there was a brief time when Adolpho Veloso was neck-and-neck in the Kalshi prediction market. Cinematography is one of "Train Dreams'" only nominations, but it is a visually arresting film, especially for a Netflix release. If it is going to win anything, this is it, and I like the upset.

Prediction: "Train Dreams"

Odds to win Best Visual Effects

Best Visual Effects Nominees

• Avatar: Fire and Ash
• F1
• Jurassic World Rebirth
• The Lost Bus
• Sinners

Both "Avatar" and "Avatar: The Way of Water" won Best Visual Effects. Even if the third installment isn't represented in many other categories, it likely won't be denied here.

Prediction: "Avatar: Fire and Ash"

Odds to win Best Casting

Best Casting Nominees

• Gabriel Domingues ("The Secret Agent")
• Nina Gold ("Hamnet")
• Cassandra Kulukundis ("One Battle After Another")
• Francine Maisler ("Sinners")
• Jennifer Venditti ("Marty Supreme")

The newest Oscars category has held firm as an expected win for "Sinners," currently sitting at 78%.

Prediction: "Sinners"

Odds to win Best Costume Design

Best Costume Design Nominees

• Miyako Bellizzi ("Marty Supreme")
• Ruth E. Carter ("Sinners")
• Kate Hawley ("Frankenstein")
• Deborah L. Scott ("Avatar: Fire and Ash")
• Malgosia Turzanska ("Hamnet")

Guillermo del Toro's movies do well at the Academy Awards, and "Frankenstein" is no different. It won't win many awards, but it is likely to be recognized for Kate Hawley's costume work.

Prediction: "Frankenstein"

Odds to win Best Production Design

Best Production Design Nominees

• Hannah Beachler, Monique Champagne ("Sinners")
• Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton ("Hamnet")
• Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau ("Frankenstein")
• Jack Fisk, Adam Willis ("Marty Supreme")
• Florencia Martin, Anthony Carlinmo ("One Battle After Another")

See above. "Frankenstein" is expected to crush these categories.

Prediction: "Frankenstein"

Odds to win Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Best Makeup and Hairstyling Nominees

• Frankenstein
• Kokuho
• Sinners
• The Smashing Machine
• The Ugly Stepsister

Once again, the team behind "Frankenstein" (Cliona Furey, Jordan Samuel, Mike Hill) is poised to be recognized for craft work, as reflected in the Academy Award odds. This is a more interesting category, though, as it features "Kokuho," "The Smashing Machine," and "The Ugly Stepsister," none of which are present anywhere else. It's a bit of a surprising fall for "The Smashing Machine," which was once seen as a possible opportunity for Dwayne Johnson to get a Best Actor nod.

Prediction: "Frankenstein"

Odds to win Best Original Song

Best Original Song Nominees

• "Dear Me"("Diane Warren: Relentless")
• "Golden" ("KPop Demon Hunters")
• "I Lied to You" ("Sinners")
• "Sweet Dreams of Joy" ("Viva Verdi!")
• "Train Dreams" ("Train Dreams")

Just like in the Best Animated Feature category, "KPop Demon Hunters" will not be denied. If anything, it's a surprise more songs from the film weren't nominated.

Prediction: "Golden"

Odds to win Best Original Score

Best Original Score Nominees

• Alexandre Desplat ("Frankenstein")
• Jerskin Fendrix ("Bugonia")
• Ludwig Goransson ("Sinners")
• Jonny Greeenwood ("One Battle After Another")
• Max Richter ("Hamnet")

Ludwig Goransson is 2-for-2 in this category, previously winning for "Black Panther" and "Oppenheimer." He's probably getting the hat trick with "Sinners" if his Oscar odds are any indication.

Prediction: "Sinners"

Odds to win Best Sound

Best Sound Nominees

• F1
• Frankenstein
• One Battle After Another
• Sinners
• Sirat

"F1" looks like the easy choice here, according to Oscar odds, though the inclusion of "Sirat" is a fun nod to a lesser-seen (and heard) movie that is built largely around a sonic experience. 

Prediction: "F1"

Odds to win Best Documentary Short

Best Documentary Short Nominees

• All the Empty Rooms
• Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
• Children No More: Were and are Gone
• The Devil is Busy
• Perfectly a Strangeness

The shorts categories are always a crapshoot except in the odd year when a Wes Anderson releases something in one of these. "All the Empty Rooms" is a favorite at 66%, while "Armed Only with a Camera" is at 17%.

Prediction: "All the Empty Rooms"

Odds to win Best Live Action Short

Best Live Action Short Nominees

• Butcher's Stain
• A Friend of Dorothy
• Jane Austen's Period Drama
• The Singers
• Two People Exchanging Saliva

Even more than in Documentary Short, the Live Action edition is anyone's guess, with "Two People Exchanging Saliva" leading the way at 40%. 

Prediction: "Two People Exchanging Saliva"

Odds to win Best Animated Short

Best Animated Short Nominees

• Butterfly
• Forevergreen
• The Girl Who Cried Pearls
• Retirement Plan
• The Three Sisters

Finally, "Butterfly" is a favorite here at 55%, a stark increase from its 40% position in January. That probably doesn't mean a lot. When making your predictions, either avoid these categories or go with the favorite in your Oscars pools.

Prediction: "Butterfly"

Best Picture odds in Canada

Film	Studio/Distributor
One Battle After Another	Warner Bros.	-600
Sinners	Warner Bros.	+350
Hamnet	Focus Features	+2000
Marty Supreme	A24	+4000
Sentimental Value	Neon	+6000
Bugonia	Focus Features/Universal Pictures	+10000
Frankenstein	Netflix	+10000
Train Dreams	Netflix	+10000
F1	Apple	+20000
The Secret Agent	Neon	+20000

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