Golf betting is in its popular spot on the summer odds board, with the first of back-to-back PGA Tour events at Muirfield Village in Columbus, Ohio. The Workday Charity Open wraps up with Round 4 on Sunday, with an early 7 a.m. ET start to hopefully beat thunderstorms.
The SuperBook at Westgate’s Derek Wilkinson talked Workday Charity Open betting post-Round 3, with insights on sharp bets and public play heading into the final round.
Workday Charity Open Round 4 odds and betting
Justin Thomas fired a second straight 6-under 66 Saturday for a 16-under 200 total, which vaulted him to the -175 favorite when The SuperBook released adjusted odds Saturday night. Viktor Hovland is alone in second, two shots back, and is the +350 second choice, while Collin Morikawa slipped to third place, three shots back, and is 6/1 heading to Sunday.
Kevin Streelman, tied for fourth with Sam Burns at 205, is a distant fourth choice at 30/1.
"We win on Thomas, Hovland and Burns. We lose on Morikawa and Ian Poulter," Wilkinson said. "At this point, Morikawa would be a small loss, but Poulter would still be significant."
That said, Poulter is six shots back at 210. Wilkinson said the updated odds drew bets on Hovland +350 and longer shots Streelman 30/1 and Burns 40/1. There are also a couple of prop markets of interest to The SuperBook.
"We need the winning score to be over 268.5," Wilkinson said, noting heavier action on the Under. "We don’t want Hideki Matsuyama to finish in the top 20. It’s not a huge loss, but we’d prefer him to fall back some tomorrow."
Matsuyama is currenty in a five-way tie for eighth at 9-under 207.
Workday Charity Open Round 3 odds and betting
Collin Morikawa followed his opening 7-under 65 with a 66 for a 13-under 131 total and a three-shot lead at the halfway point. So Morikawa remains the favorite at +175 in The SuperBook's updated odds Friday night.
Justin Thomas, now the +300 second choice, is tied for second with Kevin Streelman at 10-under 134. Hideki Matsuyama is the +500 third choice, as he stands tied with little-known Sam Burns at 135.
"We lose significantly on Morikawa and Matsuyama. We win on Streelman, Thomas and Burns," Wilkinson said, noting Burns closed +20,000 pre-tournament and is now +3,000 and among those drawing money after The SuperBook's updated odds posted. Others landing post-second round action included Viktor Hovland (136) at +1,400, Thomas at his +300 price, and Ian Poulter (137) at +4,000.
Workday Charity Open Round 2 odds and betting
Collin Morikawa opened with a 7-under 65 to take a one-stroke lead and move from +3,500 pre-tournament to the +450 favorite. Justin Thomas is tied for seventh at 68, but he's the +700 co-second choice with Hideki Matsuyama, who shot 67. Wilkinson said a few golfers drew money after updated odds posted Thursday night.
"We’ve seen action on Justin Thomas at +800, Patrick Reed +1,400, Viktor Hovland +2,500, Matthew Wolff +8,000 and Rory Sabbatini +15,000," Wilkinson said. "The only bet we moved on was from a wiseguy on Justin Thomas at +800. We moved it to +700 for now."
Reed is in a big group at 68, Hovland and Sabbatini are both at 69, and Wolff is at 72.
Wilkinson pointed to a couple of pre-tournament prop markets creating liability.
"We need Jon Rahm to beat Brooks Koepka. We have significant liability in that matchup," Wilkinson said. The SuperBook is OK to that matchup thus far, after Rahm shot 72 and Koepka 74. "We do not want Patrick Cantlay to finish in the top 10. We want Jordan Spieth to make the cut."
Cantlay is tied for 36th after a 2-under 70, and Spieth is tied for 64th after a 72.
Who are people betting to win the Workday Charity Open?
UPDATE 1 A.M. ET THURSDAY: Six hours before the first group tees off, Brooks Koepka is atop the Workday Charity Open odds board at +900 at Caesars sportsbooks. But he's not problematic at all. "Among the favorites, Justin Thomas and Xander Schauffele would be losers for us," Caesars senior sports trader Rex Beyers said of the +1,200 co-second choice and +1,500 fifth choice. "Jason Day (+5,000) and Ian Poulter (+6,000) are bigger losers a little further down the trough." Then there are the long-shot liabilities: "Brian Stuard, Richy Werenski and Carlos Ortiz are the bombers that would cause real angst in the hub if they are in contention on Sunday." Stuard is +9,000, Werenski is +12,500 and Ortiz +15,000.
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Brooks Koepka is the +1,500 fourth choice in the Workday Charity Open odds at DraftKings Sportsbook, but he's taking the most tickets and the most money, followed by +2,600 Justin Rose in both categories. Tournament favorite Justin Thomas (+1,100) is drawing the fourth-most tickets and money. Patrick Cantlay and Jon Rahm are the +1,300 co-second choices.
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Justin Thomas is the +1,000 favorite in Workday Charity Open odds at The SuperBook, but he’s not among those seeing early money.
“The handle, once again, is very good,” Osterman said. “We have seen some sharp plays already, and the standout one is three dimes ($3,000) on Jon Rahm at +1,400. We moved to +1,200 off that bet. The public has been on some of the guys who played well last week. We have a good amount of tickets on Matthew Wolff at +8,000. We went to +6,000 because of liability.”
Wolff had a three-stroke lead entering the final round at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, but ultimately lost by three shots to Bryson DeChambeau. Public bettors are also on Chris Kirk and Matt Wallace, who both moved from +10,000 to +8,000.
Where are the sharp bets on the Workday Charity Open?
Along with the aforementioned play on now second-choice Rahm, a couple players a little further down the odds board are landing wiseguy money to win.
“We have seen some small sharp bets on Gary Woodland at +5,000, now +4,000, and Ian Poulter at +10,000, now +8,000,” Osterman said.
Which prop bets are people betting in the Workday Charity Open?
Sharp bets are landing in the Workday Charity Open prop markets, as well. Osterman said The SuperBook is seeing respected players fading Jordan Spieth, betting him to miss the cut and wagering against him in matchups.
The Yes/No on Spieth making the cut is -160/+140, and in matchup props, Spieth is +105 to Gary Woodland’s -125.
Who will win the Workday Charity Open?
| Golfer | Odds to win |
|---|---|
| Justin Thomas | -175 |
| Viktor Hovland | +350 |
| Collin Morikawa | +600 |
| Kevin Streelman | +3,000 |
| Sam Burns | +4,000 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +6,000 |
| Ian Poulter | +6,000 |
| Rory Sabbatini | +8,000 |
| Rickie Fowler | +8,000 |
| Gary Woodland | +8,000 |
| Xander Schauffele | +10,000 |
| Chase Seiffert | +25,000 |
| M.J. Daffue | +50,000 |
Updated odds courtesy The SuperBook
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