Nine of the 25 knockout-stage matches played so far at this World Cup have seen the team that scores first fail to win in 90 minutes. That's more than a third of the knockout matches played since the group stage wrapped up, a rate high enough that taking the lead is no longer a reliable proxy for winning.
That trend is what makes Stake's Score First, You Win promotion worth a closer look. The promotion runs through July 21, 2026, covering the remaining Quarter-Finals, Semi-Finals, and Final. If you don't already have a Stake account, our Stake promo code guide explains how to sign up with code COVERSBONUS and claim the current welcome offer.
Score First, You Win
How it works: The offer pays out as a winner on your pre-match 1x2 (90' + Stoppage Time) selection if your team scores the first goal of the match, regardless of what happens afterward. In a tournament where the first goal has been anything but decisive, that's a useful piece of insurance, not a gimmick.
Why scoring first hasn't been enough in this World Cup
Look past the aggregate number and the pattern gets more interesting, because it splits into two distinct failure modes, and both matter for how you bet the 1x2 90' market.
In four of the nine games, the early goal was overturned before full time: Croatia led Portugal before losing 2-1; DR Congo led England before losing 2-1; Japan led Brazil before losing 2-1; and Egypt led Argentina in the Round of 16 before losing 3-2.
In each of those, a pre-match bet on the team that scored first to win the 1x2 90' market would have lost outright, meaning the lead didn't hold up.
The other five are more instructive, because the 90-minute scoreline itself never resolved in the early scorer's favour. Let's take a closer look:
- Senegal led Belgium 2-0 before Belgium won 3-2 in extra time.
- Egypt led Australia, and Paraguay led Germany; both matches were still 1-1 at full time and went to penalties (Egypt through, Paraguay through).
- Argentina led Cape Verde, and it was 2-2 after 90 minutes before Argentina scored the extra-time winner.
- Netherlands led Morocco; it finished 1-1, and the Dutch lost the shootout.
Why it matters: Because the 'Score First, You Win' promo only settles on the 1x2 (90' + Stoppage Time) market. In all five of those draws, a standard pre-match bet on the early scorer to win would have lost. That's the exact scenario this promotion is built to cover.
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How I’m betting the World Cup comeback trend
This World Cup has made me less willing to treat the first goal as proof that a match is under control.
The clearest examples have come when a lower-ranked or less-favoured team got off to a fast start, took the lead, and then struggled to hold it once the game settled. Croatia against Portugal, DR Congo against England, Japan against Brazil, and Egypt against Argentina all fit that pattern: the early goal shifted the scoreline, but it didn't alter the broader balance of the match for long.
That's the situation I've been looking for in-play. Not just "team scores first", but what happens next:
- Does the leading team keep possession, territory and pressure?
- Do they immediately drop deeper?
- Is the favourite still creating chances?
- Are the odds drifting in a way that suggests the market expects a comeback?
- Does the match feel like it is moving towards an equalizer rather than settling down?
This is where the Stake promo becomes more useful than a standard pre-match 1x2 bet. Normally, if I back a team pre-game and they score first but fail to win inside 90 minutes, that bet loses. We've seen that happen repeatedly in the knockout stage.
With 'Score First, You Win', the pre-game selection is paid out if my team scores first, regardless of the result. That gives me a cleaner way to pair a pre-match view with an in-play read.
Pre-match bet: Spain to score first (July 10, 2026)
Ahead of Spain's quarter-final against Belgium, I've backed Spain in the pre-match 1x2 (90' + Stoppage Time) market. If Spain scores first, the bet qualifies for the promotion, regardless of how the match finishes. From there, I'll be watching the in-play markets to see whether the game develops into one of the comeback scenarios we've seen several times during this tournament.
That's exactly what I'll be doing with this Spain-Belgium match. If Spain scores first, the promotion has already done its job. From there, I'll watch how the game develops. If Spain starts dropping deeper and Belgium begins creating sustained pressure, I can consider a separate in-play position on a comeback without feeling tied to my original pre-match bet.
Spain scoring first put the promotion into action. Because my pre-match selection was Spain in the 1x2 (90' + Stoppage Time) market, the bet qualified and settled as a winner regardless of what came next, which was an equalizer from Belgium, showing the value of that protection. Next: I have a clear opportunity to assess the in-play market.
How Stake's "Score First, You Win" promotion fits this strategy
The concept is straightforward. Place your first pre-match bet on the 1x2 (90' + Stoppage Time) market for any remaining World Cup Quarter-Final, Semi-Final or Final. If your team scores the first goal, Stake settles your bet as a winner, regardless of how the match finishes, up to a maximum payout of $250 USD.
The promotion applies to your first qualifying bet on each match. As always, it's worth checking the full promotion terms before placing your wager.
Given how often the 1x2 market has failed to reward the team that scored first in this tournament, this feels less like a standalone bonus and more like a useful complement to an in-play strategy. If your team goes ahead, your pre-match position is protected, leaving you free to assess how the game develops and decide whether there's value elsewhere in the live markets.
As with any betting strategy, results aren't guaranteed, and the trend described above reflects only this tournament's knockout stage.
Stake supports responsible gambling through its Stake Smart program, which includes deposit limits, self-exclusion, time-outs and other player protection tools. If you need help managing your betting, visit Stake.com's Responsible Gaming page or contact its 24/7 support team.
How the Stake welcome bonus works using code COVERSBONUS
200% Match up to $3,000
Code: COVERSBONUS
If you're new to Stake, you'll need to create an account before you can take advantage of the 'Score First, You Win' promotion. Before signing up, check out our Stake promo code guide, which explains the latest welcome offer and how to use promo code COVERSBONUS to maximize your first deposit.
Here's the deal: Make an initial deposit of at least $10, and you'll receive a 200% deposit bonus, credited within 24 hours of your deposit and account review.
How the bonus works:
- You deposit the maximum $1,500.
- Stake matches your deposit with $1,500 in bonus funds.
- Your starting balance becomes $3,000 ($1,500 deposited + $1,500 bonus).
- The offer carries a 40x playthrough requirement.
The best part: If you're planning to take advantage of the 'Score First, You Win' promotion, creating a new Stake account unlocks access to the welcome bonus, as long as you meet the eligibility requirements. Be sure to read the full terms and conditions before claiming either offer.
