It's finally here. The Patriots will be slight faves when they take on the Rams in the Big Game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, in Atlanta, Georgia on Sunday night. If you're still on the fence about who to back our editorial staff is here to help you out by picking the side, total and their favorite prop bets for Super Bowl LIII. **video
Favorite Prop Bet
Jason Logan, Senior Industry Analyst: Johnny Hekker Under 55.5 yards Longest Punt
“He’s indoors, which means no kicking with the wind. In his four indoor games, Hekker has averaged about 48 yards per punt and is only putting up about 42 per punt in the playoffs.”
Patrick Everson, Senior Writer: Will There Be A Fourth Down Conversion – Yes
"Bill Belichick and Sean McVay aren't ones to automatically punt on fourth down, sometimes even in their own territory. So I love the prop of Yes on whether there will be a successful fourth-down conversion."
Rob Hansen, Alerts/Product Coordinator: First Half Under 27.5
"This game feels like an Under all the way. If things do go off the rails from a scoring perspective, it will most likely be in the second half. In the opening two quarters both coaches will attempt to orchestrate long drives and keep the ball out their opponents' hands. There is a ton of respect on both sidelines."
Brandon DuBreuil, Content Marketing Strategist/NFL Writer: James White Over 50.5 Receiving Yards
“What’s the best way to avoid Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh? Short passes and screen passes to James White all night.”
Jameson Mossman, Social Alerts Coordinator: First Touchdown Scorer – Rob Gronkowski
"The Patriots have been methodical in their game-opening scoring drives. In their last four games a RB has scored the first TD. What a better way to flip the script then a play action pass to Gronk in the red-zone on the first drive."
Rohit Ponnaiya, Publishing Editor: Todd Gurley Over 68.5 Rushing Yards
"Yes, the Patriots have played suffocating defense against the run during the playoffs, and yes, Gurley has been splitting snaps with C.J Anderson recently, but as far as I'm concerned that just means the O/U on his rushing total has gone way too low. Don't forgot that in the regular season Gurley rushed for almost 90 yards per game and the Patriots gave up 4.9 yards per rush (the fourth-worst total in the league)."
Andrew Caley, Senior Publishing Editor: Julian Edelman – Over 6.5 receptions
“The bromance between Edelman and Brady is for real. Especially in the playoffs. Since Edelman became Edelman he has averaged 12.5 targets per game in 12 playoff games, hauling in eight of those for catches. It seems inconceivable for this to go Under. What could go wrong?”
Total Picks
Logan: Over 56.5
“Neither team is going to be able to run as much as previous postseason games. I expect some fireworks from both sides."
Everson: Under 56.5
"I hate rooting against scoring, but after the all the points put up in last year's Super Bowl, I'm going to go with Under this time around."
Hansen: Under 56.5
"The Patriots have shown their desire in this postseason to extend drives and keep the opposing scorers on the sidelines. Short passes and the running game will be the prevailing aspect of the offensive game plan for both teams, and that will eat the clock. Both the Rams and Patriots are, obviously, very capable of quick strikes on offense but a slow start to the scoring will be too much to overcome for Over bettors."
DuBreuil: Over 56.5
“This is a super square bet but one I’ll be personally playing as well. Yes, the teams might run a lot, but the Pats have been running a lot in the playoffs and still hitting the over. I see this as a 31-28-type win.”
Mossman: Under 56.5
"Both teams will probably not want this to turn into a shootout. The Rams will most likely feature a run heavy approach to set up their play action game and the patriots employ a pseudo run game in their short passes to RB’s and running the ball with Michel. Both those styles control the clock and attempt to limit possessions keeping this game just Under the number."
Ponnaiya: Over 56.5
"The Rams had the second-best offense in the league this season, and the Patriots played the No. 1 offense (the Chiefs) twice, allowing a total of 71 points against them. The Patriots can score as well, finishing fourth in the league in scoring, and I fully expect Brady to be able to make sure New England keeps pace with the Rams high-octane offense in this one. The last two Super Bowls have been shootouts, Sunday should be more of the same."
Caley: Over 56.5
"The Patriots are humming on offense and the Rams are no slouches themselves. Both defenses have been playing better in the playoffs, but still have some holes that can be exploited. The last three Patriots Super Bowls have gone Over. I think were set up for No. 4."
Game Picks
Logan: Rams +3
"Los Angeles is a better team offensively and defensively, and they’re uniforms are wayyyyyyyy cooler. The opener of L.A. -1 was right. Thanks for the points!"
Everson: Rams moneyline
"As Eagles coach Doug Pedersen showed last year, you have to be a risk-taker to beat Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Rams coach Sean McVay fits that mold -- unafraid to go for it on fourth down, etc. -- so I'll go against all that Patriots money and take Rams moneyline."
Hansen: Patriots -2.5
"I actually bet this in real life at Patriots -1.5, but -2.5 is still a decent number. The Patriots do a great job of getting the ball out of Tom Brady's hand quickly with short passes to White, Hogan, Edelman, etc. and that will certainly slow down the Rams' most dangerous weapon - their defensive line. Look for Brady and the Pats to "dink and dunk" their way to another championship."
DuBreuil: Patriots -2.5
"I got on the Patriots at -1.5 but would make the same bet at -2.5 based on the experience factor and the fact that most individual matchups favor the Pats."
Mossman: Patriots alternate spread -6.5
"With some books now showing Pats -3 and potentially more jumping to that number as public money rolls in on the Pats closer to kickoff. If you still like the Patriots at -3 consider moving to the Pats at -6.5 at +145. With how they’ve been playing offensively to close out the regular season and in the playoffs it’s not a stretch to think they are good to win by a TD or more."
Ponnaiya: Rams moneyline
"The Rams were my preseason pick to win the Super Bowl so I can't go against them now. They have a fully loaded and balanced team offensively with a defense focused on containing the passing games that have dominated the NFL for the last decade. At +2.5 I'd rather back the Rams on the moneyline than the spread."
Caley: Patriots -2.5
"Admittedly, I’ve written off the Patriots in seasons past, but I’m not going to be the one to fade them now. The Rams probably have more overall talent, but not at the position where it matters most. I get to back Brady and have to lay less than a field goal? Yes, please."
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