March Madness Sweet 16: Purdue vs Tennessee odds, predictions and best bets

The two best offensive teams in the South Region battle it out in NCAA March Madness action Thursday, as Carsen Edwards and the Purdue Boilermakers play underdog to Grant Williams and the Tennessee Volunteers. We break down the odds and give you our predictions and best bets for this Sweet Sixteen matchup.  **video

(3) Purdue vs (2)Tennessee 

Odds: TENN -1.5, 146.5 at BetAmerica
Start Time: Thursday March 28, 7:29 p.m ET. Louisville, KY

Best Pointspread Bet

This game has a very close spread and if you look at the KenPom ratings for both teams you'd see why. Purdue is ranked ninth in the country overall while Tennessee is just one spot behind them. 

Tennessee is third in the country in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency according to KenPom, while Purdue ranks fifth. On the other end of the court the Vols are 33rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while the Boilermakers are slightly better, ranking 27th.**video

While both offenses are highly ranked the Purdue offense can be one-dimensional. Carsen Edwards had a huge game against Villanova scoring 42 points and averages 23.6 points per game, but the Boilermakers rely too much on him to power their offense. 

Edwards takes 37.4 percent of his team's shots (the sixth-highest number in the country and higher than any other player in the NCAA tournament) and shoots just 38.9 percent. Purdue has only one other player averaging at least 10 ppg, Edwards' backcourt mate Ryan Cline who averages 11.7 ppg. 

Tennessee on the other hand has five players averaging more than 10 ppg and they know how to share the ball. The Vols are fifth in the country in assists per game with 17.8. And Purdue has been susceptible to teams that move the ball well, ranking outside of the top-200 in opponents assists per field goal made.

Expect the more efficient offense with superior ball movement to win this one. Take Tennessee to come out on top and cover the 1.5 points.  

Best Over/Under Bet 

Purdue has played very well through the first two rounds of their tournament, especially their defense which held Old Dominion to 48 points in the first round and then limited Big East Champion Villanova to 61 points on 34.5 percent shooting in Round 2. But Tennessee is a different beast on offense than those teams; they move the ball, have a variety of weapons that can score from anywhere on the court and shoot 49.4 percent from the field (fifth-best in the country).

Tennessee has succeeded on offense during the tournament, but their poor focus on the defensive end of the floor has resulted in Colgate and Iowa sticking around late in games. They could have a difficult time limiting Purdue's offense especially if they give them second chances which they are prone to do. Tennessee has a defensive rebounding rate outside the top-200, while Purdue has the 15th best offensive rebounding rate in the nation. 

The Over has cashed in each of the Volunteers past six games and these were the two best offensive teams in the South Region, so don't hesitate to back the Over on the total of 146.5.

Best Prop Bet

Tennessee has made second-half defensive collapses into an art form. The Vols have allowed an average of 46 ppg during the second half over their last six games. 

That being said they consistently play well in the first half, even against their best opponents this year: Gonzaga, Kansas, Kentucky, Auburn, Ole Miss, LSU, Mississippi State and Iowa. In 10 of 12 games played against those teams the Vols went into halftime with a lead of at least two points.

On the season, Tennessee's first half scoring margin of +8.7 ranked third in the country. Take the Vols on the first half spread of 0, which at BetAmerica pays out slightly better than the moneyline.

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