It's mid-July, which means that golf bettors are gearing up for what is traditionally the wildest, most unpredictable major of the PGA season. The Open Championship gets underway Thursday at vaunted Carnoustie Golf Club and unlike the U.S. Open, which had a clear No. 1 option, this one is a little more wide open – though the favorite is the same.
World No. 1 Dustin Johnson is the +1,200 fave at most betting sites as he looks to bounce back from a dreadful collapse at Shinnecock Hills in New York last month. But a host of contenders are hot on his heels, including European hopefuls Justin Rose and Rory McIlroy (+1,600 each) and defending champion Jordan Spieth (+2,000).
Here are 18 betting facts to help you make those difficult wagering decisions ahead of Thursday's early tee-off:
1. Spieth is going to be a popular choice this week; after all, it isn't often he finds himself outside the top three in the betting odds to win a major tournament. While there hasn't been a repeat Open Championship winner this decade, there were two in the 2000s – Tiger Woods won his second and third Open title in 2005-06, while Ireland sensation Padraig Harrington captured back-to-back Open championships in 2007-08. And the first of those wins came at Carnoustie.
2. Harrington's first victory didn't come easily, as he found himself six shots back of leader Sergio Garcia before rallying to draw even with a final-round 67 before dispatching Garcia in the four-hole playoff. That kicked off a stretch of two playoff finishes in a three-year span – but there's been extra holes only once at the Open Championship since then - when Zack Johnson held off Louis Oosthuizen and Marc Leishman at the Old Course at St. Andrews in 2015. Bettors are getting +275 odds on Bet365 that we'll see a playoff at this year's Open. .
3. It's worth noting – even if only for fascination's sake – that each of the last three Open Championships held at Carnoustie were decided in a playoff, with nine total golfers within two shots of the lead across those three tournaments. Carnoustie has been home to some of the most competitive Open Championships in history the last three times it has hosted, and bettors who believe that trend will continue would be wise to consider the one-shot margin of victory at +250.
4. Fancy a duel? Bet365 has a variety of match-style props available. The most intriguing of all pits two-time defending U.S. Open champion Brooks Koepka (-110) against the one and only Tiger Woods (-110). It's hard not to see Koepka as the favorite in this one; he comes in ranked eighth on the tour in scoring average (69.517) and seventh in birdies per round (4.22). Woods is 14th in scoring average but ranks 176th in driving accuracy, which could be his undoing at Carnoustie.
5. The other big matchup: Johnson vs. McIlroy, with the American (-125) favored slightly ahead of the Northern Ireland native (+105). This represents a potential value play, with McIlroy landing low amateur status the last time the event was held at Carnoustie while putting together top-five finishes in each of the last three Opens in which he has played – including a title in 2014. Johnson has three top-10 showings at the Open Championship, but just one in the past five years.
6. Variety is the spice of life – and it has also been the theme of the Open Championship winners list over the past decade-plus. Since 2007, five different countries have produced at least one champion – the United States (4), Northern Ireland (2), South Africa (2), Ireland (2) and Sweden (1). This comes after the U.S. produced 10 of the 12 winners between 1995 and 2006. America is the favorite to win this year's Open at -138, followed by Europe (+175) and the rest of the world (+500).
7. Johnson has the inside track on finishing as the top American, entering at +650 on Bet365. Johnson has been the most consistent player on tour this season, sitting tied for the lead with eight top-10 finishes. It's crowded behind him, with Rickie Fowler (+900), Koepka (+900), Spieth (+900), Justin Thomas (+1,000) and Woods (+1,100) all in the mix. And let's not forget Phil Mickelson (+2,500), who won the Open in 2013 and has two second-place finishes this decade.
HOW TO HANDICAP GOLF BETTING ODDS LIKE A LAS VEGAS PRO
8. The battle for top European at the PGA Tour's lone overseas major is just as competitive. Rose (+700) is an ever-so-slight favorite, with McIlroy (+800) right behind and Jon Rahm (+900) a close third. Add in Tommy Fleetwood (+1,000) and Sergio Garcia (+1,100), and you have a five-man top-tier in bookmakers' eyes. But don't sleep on Swedish sensation Henrik Stenson (+1,400), who captured the Open Championship in 2016 and has three other top-three finishes on his resume.
9. What about the rest of the world? Jason Day is the leader of that pack, installed at +600 to win his second major title. But bettors beware: Day hasn't fared all that well at the Open Championship, finishing outside the top 20 in six of his seven attempts. Louis Oosthuizen (+1,400) is a decent live underdog option after winning the title in 2010 and finishing second in 2015, while Charl Schwartzel at +2,500 is a solid long shot play with five top-20 results this decade.
10. There are just five senior-eligible golfers making the trip to Carnoustie this year – and Bernhard Langer is the overwhelming favorite to lead the way at -188 on Bet365. Langer has seven top-five finishes at the Open Championship and has 10 major Senior Tour titles to his credit, including three Senior Open Championships. Tom Lehman (+333) is the only other Senior golfer with much of a shot to unseat Langer, while Mark Calcavecchia (+700) is a solid if unsexy long shot option.
11. They don't call it "Car-Nasty" for nothing – and this year's edition of the brutal Scottish course is shaping up to be a golfer's nightmare. A dry summer has left the fairways brown and barren – which means balls are going to roll and roll and roll some more. This makes driving accuracy even more critical to success, which makes Stenson, who leads the PGA Tour in accuracy at 77.99 percent, an even more attractive option. Stenson is a great option at +3,000 to win the event.
12. Getting off to a fast start doesn't necessarily guarantee success at a major championship – but it certainly can't hurt. And in that regard, there are a handful of golfers who have been quick starters this season and might be worth a look. Beau Hossler has the lowest first-round scoring average (68.74) of any player at Carnoustie and is a whopping +12,500 option to lead the Open after 18 holes. Next on the list: Stenson (69.00), who is installed at +4,000 to lead after the opening round.
THERE ARE MORE THAN ENOUGH WAYS TO WAGER ON PGA GOLF ODDS
13. First-round 3-ball props are a fun way to increase interest in a particular threesome, and there is no shortage of interesting matchups on Thursday's dance card. We'll be focusing on the Awkward Spellings Trio of Tony Finau, Xander Schauffele and Jhonattan Vegas. Oddsmakers have this one as a close affair between Finau and Schauffele, but we recommend bettors put their faith in Finau (+110), who boasts the sixth-best opening-round scoring average on tour (69.17).
14. The Open Championship is often full of surprises – and more than any other major tournament, bettors will need to get a bit creative when speculating on who will wind up on the first page of the Sunday leaderboard. You could, for example, ride the big name with the poor Open history. That category is led by Bubba Watson, who has 12 PGA Tour wins – including two Masters titles – but has finished in the top 25 just once in nine Open attempts. He's +1,400 to finish in the top five this week.
15. You could also opt for the guy who has somehow been overlooked by bookmakers despite having one of the more impressive resumes of any player in the field. Adam Scott, come on down! Scott is a 13-time PGA Tour winner, has a Masters title under his belt and has even fared well at the Open Championship, with three top-five finishes to his credit. Look to Scott as an intriguing play to finish in the top five this week; he's listed at +1,600 on Bet365 to do just that.
16. With a course as challenging as Carnoustie, nobody is thinking hole-in-one – but that hasn't stopped bookmakers from installing even odds (-120) on there being an ace this weekend. That seems unlikely, given the sheer difficulty of the course's three par-3 holes – the first is a 187-yard beast with a significant cross-wind, the second is a 175-yard fiend with a 40-yard-long green that narrows in the middle, and the third is a 248-yard monster with a green that slopes away in all directions.
17. As with every major championship in the history of the universe, putting will ultimately decide who wins and who doesn't. A hot, dry season is going to make those Carnoustie greens a grueling test even if they get plenty of water this week. Johnson has been one of the best on tour at 3-putt avoidance, with just 12 of them through 792 holes. One player to watch: Day, who has just 14 3-putts through 756 holes this season and is +300 to finish in the top 10 this week.
18. Saving the best for last is fun, isn't it? And if you're looking for the best payout, the straight forecast is the prop for you. If you're liking Johnson to win, you can take him to beat out McIlroy at +20,000, Spieth at +25,000 or Woods at +30,000. A McIlroy-Spieth 1-2 finish pays out at +30,000, while a Spieth-Woods result is worth a whopping +50,000. And if you like Sergio Garcia and Tiger to finish atop the leaderboard, you can get them in either order at +70,000 apiece. **video
