Whenever possible, sportsbooks like to get a jump on odds for the next big game. Such was the case during the Champions League semifinal between Dutch standout club Ajax and English Premier League outfit Tottenham Hotspur.
Each semifinal is actually two games, a home-and-home series. After Ajax snagged a 1-0 road victory on April 30, then took a 2-0 lead in the 35th minute at home on May 8, the oddsmakers at Pinnacle had seen enough and were ready to post numbers on the June 1 championship match.
“The opening odds for the 2019 Champions League final actually included Ajax instead of Tottenham Hotspur,” Pinnacle head of content marketing Benjamin Cronin told Covers. “We jumped the gun and posted the line during the halftime break of their semifinal.”
But a funny thing happened on the way to the Forum, er, on the way to Wanda Metropolitano stadium in Madrid, host of the Champions League final. Tottenham scored three goals in the second half against Ajax – tying the game at 2 in the 59th minute, then winning 3-2 in the sixth minute of injury time – with all three goals coming from Lucas Moura.
Since both teams tallied three total goals in the two-game series, the tiebreaker came down to away goals, giving Tottenham the victory and a berth in Saturday’s title match against fellow EPL squad Liverpool.
“After that miraculous comeback, we then had to go back to the drawing board, and we posted a new line as soon as the final whistle blew,” Cronin said.
Likewise, Liverpool had a stunning comeback against Barcelona in the other semifinal. After losing 3-0 on the road May 1, Liverpool scored a 4-0 rout May 7 at home to win on aggregate goals. So perhaps Tottenham’s heroics a day later against Ajax shouldn’t have come as a surprise.
Regardless, after that Spurs stunner, Pinnacle installed Liverpool as a +104 chalk in three-way betting for the final, with Tottenham at +279 and Draw at +266. Those odds have seen modest adjustments over the past three weeks, to Liverpool -103/Tottenham +315/Draw +258.
“In comparison to other events, we are seeing very little movement in the odds. However, this isn’t surprising, given that the last two Champions League finals had only moved two cents away from the opening line by the time the matches kicked off,” Cronin said. “Although there hasn’t been a great deal of market reaction to the opening odds, there appears to be a lot of confidence in Liverpool. Given that Jurgen Klopp’s side have already beaten Tottenham twice this season (2-1 both times), it’s easy to see why they are the favorites for the match.”
At PaddyPower, Liverpool opened a slightly stronger favorite at -110 and moved to -120, while Tottenham shifted from +260 to +240 and Draw went from +300 to +260.
“Liverpool would have the bigger fanbase and have been the better team all season, so unsurprisingly, the bigger liability is on Liverpool,” said Lee Price, head of public relations for PaddyPower. “A draw tends to be an unpopular selection for casual gamblers, so that would be the best result for PaddyPower in the match.”
That said, most bettors haven’t put down their wagers. Therefore, Price is reserving judgment on whether two English teams in the final will be a boon for handle.
“It’s hard to say with certainty until we get closer to game day,” Price said. “That’s when we will see most of the casual money, but we’re definitely expecting an increase in turnover with an all-English final, even compared to last season, when Liverpool vs. Real Madrid was a matchup of an English team against the two-time defending champions.”
Cronin said Pinnacle is seeing about what it’s expected thus far in terms of volume on such a massively bet event, and that wagering should really ramp up heading into the weekend. However, running back a match between two squads that already have two meetings under their belt this year could deter handle a bit.
“Our limits will reach likely reach $250,000 or even more on the day of the game, so it’s no wonder this is one of the biggest betting events of the year,” Cronin said. “The location and time difference shouldn’t impact betting behavior too much, but the fact that it’s an all-English final might have some influence. This is because these two teams regularly play against each other – at least twice a year – and there’s usually a bit more excitement when it’s two teams who rarely get to face each other.”
Both Pinnacle and PaddyPower have futures liability lingering, too. Price said both teams are losers in the futures market for PaddyPower, with Liverpool the bigger liability, although Tottenham always had the longer price. Spurs started the Champions League season at +2500 and slipped as far as +10,000 during group play. Tottenham was at 33/1 when it trailed Ajax 2-0 in the second leg of that semifinal.
Liverpool opened +1200 at PaddyPower and stretched to +2000 after the loss to Barcelona in the first leg of the semis.
Pinnacle has some noteworthy tickets out there on both sides of the championship ledger, but Cronin said overall, his shop is in good shape on the futures.
“Our futures odds touched +6000 for Tottenham and +2095 for Liverpool, so there could be some potential big winners once the game is settled,” Cronin said. “However, the result shouldn’t hurt us too much, as with these markets, it’s usually a win for a short favorite or a massive outsider that can cost us the most.”
Of course, there are proposition wagers to be had at books, as well, including one that Price said is rapidly gaining a strong following.
“One of our most popular new markets is betting on a player to have a shot on target. This is becoming a mainstream market in football betting,” he said. “We see greater turnover in this market than, for example, an assist, player passes and other relatively new player prop markets.”
Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.
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