Twins vs Tigers Game 1 Picks and Predictions: The Buck Doesn't Stop Here

It's a double-header day in Detroit as the Twins and Tigers get things going Tuesday afternoon. This will mark Game 2 of the five-game series between the pair. The first game was an entertaining one that saw Detroit take the comeback win by a score of 7-5.

This has been an excellent start to the season for Minnesota. They are now 29-20 and quietly hold a pretty nice lead in the AL Central by 4.5 games.

The Tigers had increased expectations for the 2022 season and have gotten off to a slow 18-29 start. However, they've strung together some nice baseball as of late and have won three of their last four.

Find out who wins in our free MLB picks and predictions for Tigers vs. Twins on Tuesday, May 30.

Twins vs Tigers odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Twins opened up as -145 favorites across the board. Since then, Detroit has taken a bit of money. The Twins have fallen to -140, and the Tigers are returning at around +130 by the time of this writing.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Twins vs Tigers predictions

• Prediction: Twins F5 -0.5 (-105)
• Prediction: Twins F5 TT Over 2.5 (+100)
• Best bet: Buxton hits HR (+285)

Picks made on 5/31/2022 at 10:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Twins vs Tigers game info

• Location: Comerica Park, Detroit, MI
• Date: Tuesday, May 31, 2022
• First pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports North Extra, Bally Sports Detroit

Twins vs Tigers betting preview

Starting pitchers

Devin Smeltzer (1-0, 1.04 ERA): It's been a limited sample size but so far, so good. After seeing his year cut short by injury last season, Smeltzer is in the midst of the best career season. His expected ERA is at the best mark of his career among the Top 3% of the league. While he doesn't strike batters out, he does an excellent job of inducing soft contact and he's tied for first in barrel rate among qualified pitchers. Teams really struggle to make solid contact against him. He's made three starts this season, went over five innings each time, and has allowed only two earned runs. If you want to nitpick, you can complain about the strikeouts and fastball velocity, but truthfully, Smeltzer hasn't done much wrong this season.

Rony Garcia (0-0, 3.00 ERA): Garcia's modest ERA  doesn't justify the pitch quality he's put on tape this season. Garcia thrives off an exceptionally high strikeout rate to dominate batters. But what happens when he's not getting those swings and misses? He struggles. His hard-hit rate, exit velocity, and barrel rate are all in the dumps, making Garcia a major candidate for regression.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Twins: Carlos Correa SS (Out), Max Kepler CF (Questionable), Miguel Sano 3B (Out), Gilberto Celestino CF (Out), Danny Coulombe RP (Out).
Tigers: Miguel Cabrera 1B (Questionable), Robbie Grossman LF (Out), Austin Meadows CF (Out), Victor Reyes LF (Out), Tyler Alexander RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 4-0 in the Twins' last four overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Tigers

Twins vs Tigers picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

I feel great about this handicap. Last words of a dying man, right? But seriously, all signs are pointing to Minnesota in this one. It's a tale of two pitchers who are trending in different directions. That's a spot I always love to take advantage of.

In the onset, I talked about how Garcia thrives off swings and misses to get going.

His strikeout rate is solid and among the Top 10% of qualified pitchers in baseball. Minnesota mostly hangs around league average regarding swing rate, strikeout rate, and other stats that would signal how much patience they show at the plate. But when they go on the road? Something different seems to happen in their approach. They offer much more patience, swing less, and strike out less often. Their strikeout rate goes from 21% to 19% and is good for the third-best in baseball. Garcia's roughest outing so far this season came against this very Twins team. He lasted four innings and gave up two earned runs. I think they are primed to do even more damage today.

That's the quintessential part of the handicap here. Smeltzer is in a zone on the mound and unlike some others who start so hot, his numbers seem sustainable. But even that aside, this game can be explained by one stat: Garcia's barrel rate is the 33rd worst among active pitchers and the Twins have the best barrel rate in  MLB. That's all I need to know. I expect Garcia to get hit early and often.

With all that being said, there is a rash of injuries and question marks swirling around both teams. With some uncertainty surrounding both bullpens, I'll look to avoid the entire gameplay and opt for the first five moneyline instead. My projections don't offer much of an edge here, but I'll stick to the overall handicap.

Prediction: Twins first five innings -0.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

Over/Under analysis

I'll stick to my guns here with a complete fade of Garcia. I'm not sure what to expect from the Tigers lineup with Miguel Cabrera being listed as questionable. Because of that, I don't want to rely on them for even one run, so I'll opt for the Twins' team total.

Again, I'm going to sound like a broken record, but it appears that Garcia is on borrowed time before he has a blow-up game. His last start also came against the Twins, and it was his worst of the season from a runs perspective. But even then, he held them to a .159 batting average. Plenty of regression is left to occur here. Putting the pitching mismatch that we've hammered into the ground aside, let's just note an important trend.

Coming off a loss, the Twins have responded quite well in May. Putting aside an Astros series where they were thoroughly dominated, the Twins scored first in each game after a loss, which says to me that their focus at the plate increases after taking an L. So I like backing that trend to continue here.

My favorite thing about this bet is we get both a situational trend to follow and something my projections agree on. They see Minnesota going over this total around 58% of the time. That's a nice edge to back, and I will gladly take it even money.

Prediction: Twins first five team total Over 2.5 (+100 at DraftKings)

Best bet

We've picked on him for the entirety of this article, so there's no real reason why this handicap wouldn't be built around fading Garcia. He's given up a home run in three consecutive starts, and I like that trend to continue.

The common theme around those three home runs was that they unsurprisingly came off the bats of players with high barrel rates: Trevor Larnach, Isaac Paredes, and Trey Mancini.

Today, we're going to take a shot with Byron Buxton. I would rarely make a home run bet my "Best Bet," but situationally, there is a ton to love here. Buxton's last outing against Garcia was an 0-for-5 disappointment. It's rare, almost unheard of, for Buxton to have back-to-back bad performances against the same pitcher. So, from that perspective, we're expecting a big day at the plate.

Additionally, Buxton has the best barrel rate on the Twins, making this value is just too much to pass up.

Pick: Byron Buxton to hit a home run (+285 at FanDuel)

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