Not only is Ivica Zubac's total up to 13.5, but we saw some different lineups from the Dallas Mavericks in Game 5 that I think could spell trouble for Zubac and his minutes. By playing Maxi Kleber at the 4 instead of the 5, it gives the Mavericks a rim protector on defense who can slow down Zubac at all times. Whether it's Gafford or Lively, either one is able to meet Zubac at the rim and make life difficult for him in the paint, which wasn't always the case when Kleber was playing the 5. Zubac is projected to score 12.4 points on Friday against the Mavericks.
Outside of mixing it up with P.J. Washington and getting tossed in Game 3, Russell Westbrook has been pretty much invisable for the Clippers. Los Angeles needs the veteran guard to step it up in Game 6, with Leonard still out and starting guard Terance Mann questionable with a calf strain. That could mean more minutes for Westbrook off the bench. He's dished out only two assists over the past three games after registering seven in the opening two games of the series. That's sunk his assist prop total to 2.5 O/U with some shops dealing the total at 3.5 O/U. Player projections are still calling for 3-plus dimes tonight as Westbrook's minutes will return to his average of 22.5.
Coffey stepped into the starting lineup with Kawhi Leonard out of action, upping his floor time and offensive touches. He's not been able to make the most of those extra minutes, shooting less than 29% for the series and averaging only three points. However, fellow guard Terance Mann is querstionable with a calf injury for Game 6, which could leave Coffey to not only get more minutes but play a bigger role on offense. His player projections all sit north of six points with a higer ceiling due to the Clippers lineup holes. This is a low total for someone expected to play 25-plus minutes in Game 6.
Zubac is forecasted for as many as 13.8 points and 11.7 rebounds, with several models pegging him for a double-double in the boxscore. My numbers come out to 12.3 points and 10.7 rebounds, with more wiggle room around rebounds due to Leonard’s absence. His individual player props have his points total at 14.5 O/U and his rebounding total at 9.5 O/U, but you can find combo props at most mainstream books which will allow you to wager on Zubac to record a double-double between -110 and -115. However, if you have a bet365 account you can opt to parlay Zubac’s milestone markets of 10+ points and 10+ rebounds and this produces a +100 EVEN money offering. This more specific ask takes assist, steal and blocks out of the equation, but Zubac isn’t posting 10-plus in any of those stat categories.
Total PicksLAC 307, DAL 145
kaitospapa is #10 on picking games that Dallas are in with a record of (41-35-2) and +9800 units on the season.
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