The government says no trade off exists, because nothing in the new rules would force automakers to sell more small cars, which are more dangerous in crashes than larger ones. But some safety experts think otherwise.
"The deadlines are so tight that downsizing will be a tempting compliance strategy" for automakers, says John Graham, the former rulemaking chief in the Office of Management and Budget.
Some safety experts worry that the administration's green focus could reverse progress made in reducing the highway death toll. The fatality rate in car crashes reached its lowest ever in 2007 and is projected to drop even lower for 2008 — to 1.28 deaths per 100 million miles traveled.
President Obama this month withdrew the name of his nominee to lead the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, longtime safety advocate Charles "Chuck" Hurley, after an outcry from environmentalists over Hurley's statements linking fuel-economy rules to highway deaths.
The environment vs. safety
But while
The Obama administration maintains the new fuel standards can be met without forcing more small cars into the market.
"Because every (size) category has to get more efficient, if the soccer mom wants to buy her minivan, it will be a more fuel-efficient minivan. If someone wants to buy a big SUV, it will be a more fuel-efficient SUV," said Carol Browner, director of the
She said companies can use advanced technologies to improve fuel efficiency without dramatically changing their fleets.
Former NHTSA chief Jeffrey Runge, now an auto-safety and biodefense consultant, applauds the administration's decision to factor safety into its fuel-economy plan but worries automakers will still "do what is cheap and quick because the timelines are very short," and that could lead to more small cars.
Adrian
When the rules are finalized, if they "leave the automakers the option of downsizing, clearly we're going to have some safety consequences," Lund says. "Smaller vehicles do not protect their occupants as well as large ones."
A concern for automakers is that if buyers return to their historical preference for bigger vehicles, manufacturers might end up behind the mileage and emissions curve and in danger of missing the mandated goal. That could force car companies to push smaller cars into the market.
"When regulations establish requirements on what people buy, not what we make, if people aren't buying those, we have to offer incentives," says Sue Cischke,
Jim Lentz, president of Toyota's U.S. sales unit, says he doesn't think that all drivers will be forced into smaller cars but notes that in order to sell the bigger, thirstier ones, he will have to sell more Priuses or other gas-savers. If the gas-savers don't sell, there is the "possibility" that there could be shortages of larger vehicles, he says.