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Author: [Rugby] Topic: How to cap totals ?
roundrock9 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 3/31/2012 1:45:00 AM

i am having a rough year in rugby totals. i mostly bet in LIVE. Teams go scoreless for 25 min and suddenly score 20 points in 10 min.

is there a trend or formula or approach to cap totals. how can we take totals at half time. do teams relax a bit if one team is up by huge margin (like football, basketball). do teams up the tempo if the scores are more or less equal.

thanks a lot in advance

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#2
Posted: 3/31/2012 2:06:23 AM

In the modern game of league, it is a flip of the coin......

Many teams now rely on tries off kicks, something that you cannot cap, because teams themselves cannot rely on it.

The thing is many teams when attempting a bomb, very very rarey does someone go up and get the bomb clean, these days they rely on a back back, a lucky bounce etc etc.....Bombs are generally lotteries.

Furthermore, some days most tries are scored around the posts, therefore an easier kick for goals and some days they are scored in the corner making kicks harder..

Also some refs for some reason keep a close "10 metre" and some others keep a larger.

Some days there are more penalties, making teams on the attack more

Some days teams just cant hang onto the ball, some days they can.

Some days teams turn up defensively, some days they dont.

At the end of the day, it is nothing more than luck......The reason why is because of the wrestling techniques that the NRL allows, they do this so they can artificially make the games closer at the expense of making the games a spectacle. Capping totals about 5-6 years was significantly easier, because the NRL has allowed the wrestle, thereby making pointsbharder to score, meaning to score, teams are bombing which means more luck.

Over and unders these days are around anywhere between 35-42.......Rarely you get anything more than that.

About 6-7 years ago, you used to see totals around 49-50, even once i saw 54.5

 

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#3
Posted: 3/31/2012 2:10:35 AM

The NRL referees do not referee te game, they manage the game.....How many times do you here abref calling out a player because they are offside and telling them not to get involved in the tackle? Why? What about when you see a bomb go up and a player is offside and the ref tells hm not too get involved?

I mean, do you ever here a ref tell a player in the NBA when they are about to take a charge say "you are in the circle" or when a player is in the paint for 3 secs tell a player "you better get out"?

Nrl refs mange the game, they dont ref it...  

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#4
Posted: 3/31/2012 2:30:12 AM
first piece of advice is to ignore the above 2 posts

the factors affecting totals are the same for lines - players, teams, refs, time, conditions, travel, back-up etc

if you are pricing the lines correctly you should be coming up with a total easily
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#5
Posted: 3/31/2012 2:36:15 AM
Matchups, teams - average to good - playing a decent 2-3 game stretch, and breakdowns.......do you see either/both sides breaking down, to any of the factors mentioned.

That's why I'm doing the SYD-WAR 40.5> tonight. (NZ playing decent, but giving up points, cept to woeful Gold Coast.)

Sometimes take a lesser team at home, but still playing OK.
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#6
Posted: 3/31/2012 2:38:09 AM
BTW, that's the rationale for OVERS.

I have a pretty decent strike rate when not liking an over, it goes under - still getting over that mental tick cause I still seldom bet those.
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#7
Posted: 3/31/2012 2:40:33 AM
Don't bet on overs in the wet,its illegal for games to travel over the total in the wet
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#8
Posted: 3/31/2012 2:42:01 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Hirschfelder:

first piece of advice is to ignore the above 2 posts

the factors affecting totals are the same for lines - players, teams, refs, time, conditions, travel, back-up etc

if you are pricing the lines correctly you should be coming up with a total easily

Ok, professor, what is the secret recipe?

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#9
Posted: 3/31/2012 3:18:09 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Rostos:

Ok, professor, what is the secret recipe?



your eyes painted on?
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#10
Posted: 3/31/2012 4:32:33 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Ace77:

Don't bet on overs in the wet,its illegal for games to travel over the total in the wet



Highly illegal. But I'm sure I've fucked up both ways on that one.
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#11
Posted: 3/31/2012 5:05:57 AM
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#12
Posted: 3/31/2012 5:28:16 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Ace77:

Don't bet on overs in the wet,its illegal for games to travel over the total in the wet



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#13
Posted: 3/31/2012 6:23:07 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Hirschfelder:








This fella knows whats up
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#14
Posted: 3/31/2012 7:56:56 AM

At the end of the day, it is a flip of the coin....

You dont know where the tries are going to be scored, near the posts or in the corner.

You dont know if the goal kickers are on or off or average

You dont know if the players are going to turn up defensively or not......

Its all guess work....

The broncos havent had an over all year and the drags have been solid all year, yet 48 points were scored even though the line was 36..... 

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#15
Posted: 3/31/2012 8:05:49 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Rostos:

At the end of the day, it is a flip of the coin....

You dont know where the tries are going to be scored, near the posts or in the corner.

You dont know if the goal kickers are on or off or average

You dont know if the players are going to turn up defensively or not......

Its all guess work....

The broncos havent had an over all year and the drags have been solid all year, yet 48 points were scored even though the line was 36..... 



If you are concerned about the goal kicking why don't you bet o/u tries scored instead?
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#16
Posted: 3/31/2012 9:28:55 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by rod_steel:



If you are concerned about the goal kicking why don't you bet o/u tries scored instead?

Rod, i am just stating a fact...One day most tries are scored in the corner and some other days , it is around the posts or a combination if both. No one knows....It is just a guess,....

Yet, you miss a total by 1/2 a point either side....

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