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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NFL System
Spectre01 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Spectre01
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#1
Posted: 10/16/2012 1:03:10 PM

I have been using this system since 2009 and it wasn't until this year that I decided to put my own spin on it and there have been some interesting results.  I usually don't start using this system until about week 7 because it entails plugging in the points for and points against for the first 6 games of the season for each team playing that week.  After that you calculate the average points for and average points against for the teams that are facing each other that particular week.  You also remove the highest points for and lowest points for and highest points against and lowest points against for the teams facing each other.  You would then add the average points for, for the visiting team to the average points against for the home team and subtract 20.5 from that number.  This gives you the projected points that the visiting team is going to score.  You do the same thing with the home team (add the average points for, for the H team to the average points against for the V team and subtract 20.5).  This will give you the projected final score of the game.

Since there hasn't been 6 games played yet this year I have been skipping the part where you eliminate the highest and lowest points for and highest and lowest points against for each team facing each other and have just used all points for and points against.  The system has not worked well at all so far this year with a record since week 2 of 30-44 but it has predicted some pretty good upsets.  The problem is the inconsistancy and not knowing when it will actually work for the team that may or may not come through with one of these upsets.

I have to restart the computer I'm on right now so I'll be back to tell you the rest of this system story in a moment.    

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Spectre01 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Spectre01
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#2
Posted: 10/16/2012 1:24:57 PM

I was just about to give up on this system and then I decided to look at it from a different angle.  I decided that from week 2 to week 5 I was going to look at the games where the system predicted a winner ATS and see what teams were involved in a system win ATS.  Up to week 5 the teams that were involved in system wins looked like this:

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Spectre01
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#3
Posted: 10/16/2012 1:29:30 PM
DEN, HOU, JAK, MIN, NWO, TEN all have 3 system wins predicting ATS.
 
ATL, CAR, CHI, DAL, GB, IND, KC, MIA, SD, SF, TB, WAS all have 2 system wins predicting ATS.
 
ARZ, BUF, CIN, CLE, DET, NYG, NYJ, OAK, PHI, SEA all have 1 system win predicting ATS.
 
BAL, NE, PIT, STL all have 0 system wins predicting ATS.
 
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Spectre01 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Spectre01
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#4
Posted: 10/16/2012 1:43:08 PM
The most interesting statistic to me were the teams that the system has never been right on.  Would that trend continue in week 6??? YES!!!  It DID!!!  The other interesting part about it was PIT was facing TEN this week and TEN had 3 system wins.  The big goose egg held up against a team that has been consistantly winning with the system.  The system did however pick a winner with the STL MIA game but it was only by half a point.  so BAL, NE and PIT are all still a big 0 system wins.
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Spectre01
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#5
Posted: 10/17/2012 8:48:59 PM

The Picks this week will be:

HOU -6.5

NE -10.5

PIT -3.0

Let's see what happens

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rae1978
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#6
Posted: 10/20/2012 5:44:33 PM

does this system work for straight up wins?if so what do you got for week 7 nfl?

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nghia1973
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nghia1973
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#7
Posted: 10/21/2012 5:48:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Spectre01:

The Picks this week will be:

HOU -6.5 

NE -10.5  Looking good

PIT -3.0

Let's see what happens

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Spectre01 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Spectre01
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#8
Posted: 10/22/2012 2:43:49 PM

New England decided to ruin the 0 wins streak this week but the other 2 came through.  So the remaining teams with 0 system wins so far this season are Pittsburgh and Baltimore.  The Jaguars moved up to 4 system wins tied with the Broncos at the top of the system wins list.  If you bet with the system this week you would have lost your bankroll.  There were only 3 wins that the system predicted correctly.  So as it stands so far this season...

DEN, JAK: 4 system wins

HOU, KC, MIA, MIN, NWO, SD, SF, TB, TEN: 3 system wins

ATL, CAR, CHI, DAL, DET, GB, IND, NYJ, OAK, PHI, SEA, WAS: 2 system wins

ARZ, BUF, CIN, CLE, NE, NYG, STL: 1 system win

BAL, PIT: 0 system wins

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Spectre01 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Spectre01
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#9
Posted: 10/22/2012 2:45:48 PM
If anyone wants a copy of the spreadsheet please feel free to inbox me your e-mail address and I'll send it to you.
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#10
Posted: 10/25/2012 2:42:29 PM

Hi Guys,

Sorry it has taken so long to get back to everyone.  Work has been hectic and I've been pressed for time.  The spreadsheets for this week are finished and I will be e-mailing them to the people who inboxed me shortly.  The pick of the week will be PIT -5.5.  The system says that Pittsburgh should win by only 2 points and has been wrong on games involving Pittsburgh every single week this season.

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Spectre01 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Spectre01
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#11
Posted: 10/25/2012 3:40:59 PM
Everyone that provided me an e-mail address just received the spreadsheets.  I have a few messages from people that have not provided an e-mail address and I have added you all as friends so that I can reply to your messages.  If you want the spreadsheets please pm me your e-mail address and I will send them.
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Spectre01 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Spectre01
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#12
Posted: 10/26/2012 11:47:20 AM
Last night the system was right and picked TB to win ATS.  Both TB and MIN had 3 system wins a piece going into last night's game so the trend with those teams continues to be strong with system wins.
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nghia1973
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nghia1973
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#13
Posted: 10/29/2012 9:02:44 AM
Pit  
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Spectre01 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Spectre01
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#14
Posted: 10/31/2012 2:38:38 PM

This week's picks are BAL -4.5 and NYG -3.5.  The system says that Baltimore should only win by 3 but because the system has never been right for this team the pick will be Baltimore.  The system says that the Giants should only win by 2 points against the Steelers but the Giants are favored by -3.5.  We have to go against the system once again and say that the Giants will win and cover. 

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Spectre01 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Spectre01
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#15
Posted: 11/4/2012 7:27:40 PM
Looks like the Steelers are going to break the streak.  At least Baltimore held up their end of the streak.
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nghia1973
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nghia1973
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#16
Posted: 11/11/2012 2:23:27 AM
Got any plays this week?
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Spectre01 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Spectre01
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#17
Posted: 11/15/2012 7:26:09 PM

BAL -3.5

NE -9.5

NYJ +3.5

ARZ +10

KC +3.5

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nghia1973
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nghia1973
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#18
Posted: 11/19/2012 8:54:26 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Spectre01:

BAL -3.5

NE -9.5  

NYJ +3.5 

ARZ +10 

KC +3.5 



Thanks Spectre01
I got Bal -3 so that a push for me
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TVWIN send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#19
Posted: 6/4/2014 12:42:51 PM
ok
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IbetIlose send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
IbetIlose
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#20
Posted: 6/7/2014 9:27:45 AM
good system but i have better ones for all teams and run from week 1 though week 17. All systems back tested for 15 years and even a small bettor on just 1st 8 teams would average about $4125 per year fading and betting on these teams in thier situational spots.


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#21
Posted: 6/11/2014 2:40:22 AM
You going to post your NFL games this year ibetilose?
Posted using a mobile device.
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