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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NFL Point Differential Betting System & The Total Dudley YPP Method
DegenGamble send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 9/25/2012 4:47:20 PM

So here are two systems located here.

NFL Point Differential Betting System

http://sportsgambling.about.com/od/nfl/a/NFLpointdiff.htm


The Total Dudley YPP Method

http://sportsgambling.about.com/od/nfl/a/yppsystems.htm

 

I automated both into this spreadsheet.

DOWNLOAD FROM HERE 

 Right now I have both set up to use 2011 exclusively and 2012 data exclusively.

I used them last year and they were a bit over 50% - hoping to figure out some filters to help bring that up to 60%.  So if any you guys have any ideas on additional filters - let me know

Any advice, feedback, etc would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks

DG

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#2
Posted: 9/26/2012 8:53:18 PM
Good luck my friend! May you find success with your latest endeavor!
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#3
Posted: 9/27/2012 3:47:22 AM
Good work man! I always get fascinated by your work. keep it going many lets see how it goes. Good Luck
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#4
Posted: 9/27/2012 3:54:45 AM
DegenGamble sent your a friend request.
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DegenGamble send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#5
Posted: 9/27/2012 10:23:05 AM

accepted

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DegenGamble send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#6
Posted: 9/27/2012 3:14:55 PM

So here are my early leans:

BAL-12SDG+1SEA -2.5DET-4.5ATL-7NYJ+4BUF+4HOU-12JAX+2OAK+6.5MIA+6.5GB-7.5WAS+3NYG+2CHI+3.5

Obviously not going to take all these games - will need to narrow it down to the ones with the most value.

Only thing I may do tonight is take BAL on some type of tease / parlay - that gives me points.  They defintely win today - but 12 is a good amount to cover.

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jaime2309
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#7
Posted: 9/27/2012 4:26:53 PM
Degen,
     These thursday and Monday night games are tough to cap with such a high number. But the thing with systems as we all know already, you have to follow them through and through otherwise it's not a system. Looking forward to seeing what you come up with.


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#8
Posted: 9/27/2012 4:31:42 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by jaime2309:

Degen,
     These thursday and Monday night games are tough to cap with such a high number. But the thing with systems as we all know already, you have to follow them through and through otherwise it's not a system. Looking forward to seeing what you come up with.


Jaime,

Well the above picks are the leans using the NFL pts system and Duddley Method, but as I mentioned, it needs some additional filters.  Last year it hit a little above 50% with no filters for all games.  So if we can figure out how to filter out some losing plays - it could go up to 60%

I'll keep track of all plays - no filters, and post best plays as well.

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#9
Posted: 9/27/2012 6:00:35 PM
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#10
Posted: 9/27/2012 7:10:58 PM
Degen, are you sure on the Detroit pick? I show Detroit as a 4.5 or 5 point fave but the spreadsheet says Minny should be a 5.6 point fave.
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#11
Posted: 9/27/2012 7:21:50 PM
Hey DG, used the Dudley last year... a lot of work til I discovered scoresandodds.com does the work for you, with 50% success... played the game for two decades and coached it at the H.S. level for over two decades, so I have a good 'feel' for the game & picking winners

ended up breaking even at the end of the NFL season... hope it is more profitable for you
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DegenGamble send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#12
Posted: 9/29/2012 1:46:23 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Degen, are you sure on the Detroit pick? I show Detroit as a 4.5 or 5 point fave but the spreadsheet says Minny should be a 5.6 point fave.

Danrules

So using 2011 stats only - both systems show a clear advantage to DET.  Using 2012 stats - both systems show advantage to MIN. but only by 3-5.  Now I use a couple other models that I have not explained in this thread.  I will though.  I just need to incorporate them all in one spreadsheet, but I wanted to see which models were working - and use a consensus system, possibly weighting some more than others.

So the other models lean towards DET - so that is where my lean is.

So this thread will evolve - as I get suggestions for filters, incorporate other models into the consensus.

So far this is what my picks/leans are based on.

1) NFL Point Differential System

2) Total Dudley Method

3) NFL handicapping model

 

I am looking 2 other models, but need to see how they do for another couple weeks before I decide to incorporate it into the consensus.

As I mentioned - this is a work in progress.

 

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#13
Posted: 9/29/2012 1:49:41 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by hardyvault:

Hey DG, used the Dudley last year... a lot of work til I discovered scoresandodds.com does the work for you, with 50% success... played the game for two decades and coached it at the H.S. level for over two decades, so I have a good 'feel' for the game & picking winners

ended up breaking even at the end of the NFL season... hope it is more profitable for you

 

Hardy - thanks for the input.  I will check out that site.  But chances are I will still calculate it on my own using the stats - I just trust it more - and by automating it - it takes no time at all.  I just click a button on tuesday :)

 

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#14
Posted: 9/29/2012 2:03:37 PM

OK - so my leans are still the same - too bad about BAL, they had a chance to cover, but was never meant to be, and as I mentioned - I was worried about laying that many points (glad I took them on a tease :)

BAL-12 (lost)
SDG+1
SEA -2.5
DET-4
ATL-7
NYJ+4
BUF+4
HOU-12
JAX+2
OAK+6.5
MIA+6.5
GB-7.5
WAS+3
NYG+2
CHI+3.5

So I narrowed it down to these plays:

SDG+1
SEA -2.5
WAS+3

ATL-6.5
HOU-12

Now depending on your book you may get different lines - If you can buy the hook to avaoid a push - like ATL -6.5 instead of -7

Now I highlight ATL and HOU because i'm worried about the spread.  the models show a higher propensity for them to win but not cover.  So in addition to taking them straight - I may do some type of tease to hedge my bet.

After this week games I will post record for all games and best picks record.

 

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#15
Posted: 9/29/2012 4:04:08 PM
Good stuff DG! stay on your game plan!
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#16
Posted: 10/1/2012 10:47:02 AM

So obviously some fine tuning is needed

BAL-12 (lost)
SDG+1 (won)
SEA -2.5 (lost)
DET-4 (lost)
ATL-7 (lost)
NYJ+4 (lost)
BUF+4 (lost)
HOU-12 (won)
JAX+2 (lost)
OAK+6.5 (lost)
MIA+6.5 (won)
GB-7.5 (lost)
WAS+3 (won)
NYG+2 (push)
CHI+3.5

BUT the Good News is the best plays produced a winning week.

SDG+1 (won)
SEA -2.5 (lost)
WAS+3 (won)

ATL-6.5 (lost)
HOU-12 (won)

And if you did some type of tease to hedge the ATL bet as I reccomended - you would have had a slightly better week.

I need to take a look at this weeks results and see where I could improve the consensus - i'm thinking of adding a couple other models that may prove fruitful.

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#17
Posted: 10/3/2012 6:30:17 PM

Degen, I used the 2012 numbers last week and narrowed it further to a 10 point difference of the actual line and predicted line on the Pt Diff system. Had 5 plays with wins on Min, Hou, Den, 1 loss on Atl and the Giants pushed.

For week 5 I show 4 teams that fit the 10 point difference - Balt, Minn., SF and SD.

Would be interesting to see if the 5 point system recomendation is too low. Not sure if you have the data to back test or not.

Just thought I'd throw that out there for something to think about.

 

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#18
Posted: 10/4/2012 2:08:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Degen, I used the 2012 numbers last week and narrowed it further to a 10 point difference of the actual line and predicted line on the Pt Diff system. Had 5 plays with wins on Min, Hou, Den, 1 loss on Atl and the Giants pushed.

For week 5 I show 4 teams that fit the 10 point difference - Balt, Minn., SF and SD.

Would be interesting to see if the 5 point system recomendation is too low. Not sure if you have the data to back test or not.

Just thought I'd throw that out there for something to think about.

 

 

DanRules,

Unfortunately, I have not backtested the systems as of yet.  Increasing the margin requirements might prove beneficial, I just hope it does not narrow the plays down too much.  I'll start tracking that as well.

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#19
Posted: 10/4/2012 2:12:37 PM

Results:

WEEK 4

All Plays: 5-9-1
Best Plays: 3-2
10 pt Margin Plays: 3-1-1

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#20
Posted: 10/4/2012 3:11:03 PM

Week 5

All Games - Leans


ARI-1
BAL-4.5
WAS+3
PIT-3.5
GB-7
MIN-5.5
CLE+8.5
MIA+4
CAR-3
CHI-4.5
SF-9.5
DEN+6.5
SDG+4
NYJ+9

Best Picks

ARI-1
BAL-4.5
MIN-5.5
SF-9.5

10 pt Margin plays

ARI-1
BAL-4.5
MIN-5.5
SDG+4
SF-9.5

 

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DegenGamble send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#21
Posted: 10/4/2012 4:25:15 PM
Correction - ARI is not a 10 pt margin play - just the other 4
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#22
Posted: 10/7/2012 9:08:40 AM

DG,

  Do the bears not have a 10 pt. differential ?

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#23
Posted: 10/7/2012 8:11:58 PM

The Bears were favored by 4.5 - 6 depends on where you got your line and the point differential system showed 11.2, so no, not a 10 point spread difference.

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#24
Posted: 10/9/2012 3:28:18 PM

So I may not even post the leans record anymore - it's doing just crappy - but the best picks and 10 pt margin could have potential.

RESULTS:

Week 5

All Games - Leans - 5-9


ARI-1 (loss)
BAL-4.5 (loss)
WAS+3 (loss)
PIT-3.5 (loss)
GB-7 (loss)
MIN-5.5 (win)
CLE+8.5 (loss)
MIA+4 (win)
CAR-3 (loss)
CHI-4.5 (win)
SF-9.5 (win)
DEN+6.5 (loss)
SDG+4 (loss)
NYJ+9 (win)

Best Picks 2-2

ARI-1 (loss)
BAL-4.5 (loss)
MIN-5.5 (win)
SF-9.5 (win)

10 pt Margin plays

BAL-4.5 (loss)
MIN-5.5 (win)
SDG+4 (loss)
SF-9.5 (win)

So like i mentioned i'm only going to post 10pt markgin plays and overall best picks going forward.

 

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#25
Posted: 10/9/2012 3:29:37 PM

Overall Results:

WEEK 4,5

Best Plays: 5-4
10 pt Margin Plays: 5-3-1

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