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Author:	[Systems & Strategies] Topic: Handicapping formula???
Mike41082	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: MGM Grand \|
Prospect Joined: Oct 2010 Posts: 31 Location: Illinois	#1 Posted: 10/26/2011 10:00:26 PM Hey everyone, Im a novice casual sports better, but I do well, always have been better than 50% but I dont take alot of chances for big payoffs... but recently Ive been kind of interested in the, like proper mathamatical side of handicapping... I just bet now on gut feel for the games... ... Does anyone know a good website that has info on like, different standard formulas and such, to learn that side of the handicapping art???
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Lippsman	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Covers Linesmen Joined: Feb 2001 Posts: 69670 Location: Zimbabwe	#2 Posted: 10/26/2011 11:03:48 PM I don't know of a site that will come off thier formulas. Kinda of trade secerets. Start out by looking at power ratings.
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Mike41082	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: MGM Grand \|
Prospect Joined: Oct 2010 Posts: 31 Location: Illinois	#3 Posted: 10/26/2011 11:12:30 PM I dont know much of it... I was just kind of assuming there was a basic standard thing... then everyone just kind of went off and improved on to make their own
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JackBauer	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports \|
Veteran Joined: Nov 2003 Posts: 1864 Location: Texas	#4 Posted: 10/28/2011 8:09:01 AM Check out kenpom.com great site for basketball, contains some excellent information on developing your own formulas. Read Michael Murray's Betting Baseball. Be really good with excel!
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jv040	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Jan 2009 Posts: 1479 Location: United States	#5 Posted: 11/5/2011 7:40:53 PM check these out http://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/story.cfm/story/571442/ http://sportsgambling.about.com/bio/Allen-Moody-32500.htm?nl=1 http://www.killersports.com/
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Raidermex	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Apr 2007 Posts: 3633 Location: California	#6 Posted: 11/30/2011 12:36:47 AM Here is a basic formula: (Away Team PS+Home Team PA)/2= Away Team Points Scored (Home Team PS+Away Team PA)/2=Home Team Points Scored i.e Philadelphia at Seattle Philadelphia's Away PS= 25 Away PA=20 Seattle's Home PS=18 Home PA=23 Philadelphia's Score= (25+23)/2=(48)/2=24 Seattle's Score= (18+20)/2=(38)/2=19 Philadelphia should win by 5
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Raidermex	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Apr 2007 Posts: 3633 Location: California	#7 Posted: 11/30/2011 12:48:05 AM Here is my "quickie" method for a spread prediction. (Highest ASM Team -Lowest ASM Team)/2=Projected Spread ASM= Average Scoring Margin=(PS-PA) i.e Philadelphia's ASM= 25-20= 5 Seattle's ASM= 18-23=-5 Projected Spread= (5- - 5)/2=(10)/2=5 The projected spread is Philadelphia by 5. This "quickie" system will not give you a projected score just a spread.
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Raidermex	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Apr 2007 Posts: 3633 Location: California	#8 Posted: 12/8/2011 2:13:42 PM Football Model: First Step: Produce the Away/Home Team's OYPPT: OYPPT= Offense Yards Per Point Away Team's OYPPT= Away Team's Total Yards For/Away Team's PS Home Team's OYPPT= Home Team's Total Yards For/Home Team's PS Second Step Away Team's Projected Score= Home Team's Total Yards For/Away Team's OYPPT Home Team's Projected Score=Away Team's Total Yards For/Home Team's OYPPT
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Raidermex	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Apr 2007 Posts: 3633 Location: California	#9 Posted: 12/8/2011 2:28:02 PM Football Model i.e Cleveland at Pittsburgh Cleveland's Away PS= 17 Cleveland's Away Total Yards For= 261 Cleveland Away Total Yards Against= 346 Pittsburgh's Home PS=27 Pittsburgh's Home Total Yards For=389 Pittsburgh's Home Total Yards Against= 247 First Step: Cleveland's Away OYPPT=261/17=15.35 Pittsburgh's Home OYPPT=389/27=14.41 Second Step: Cleveland's Away Projected Score=247/15.35=16 (rounded down .50) Pittsburgh's Home Projected Score=346/14.41=24 (rounded down .50) Cleveland 16 Pittsburgh 24 Pittsburgh by 8
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Raidermex	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Apr 2007 Posts: 3633 Location: California	#10 Posted: 12/8/2011 2:36:52 PM ATS Probability: Away Team's ATS Probability=(Away Team's Spread Wins+Home Team's Spread Losses)/Total Games Home Team's ATS Probability=(Home Team's Spread Wins+Away Team's ATS Losses)/Total Games
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Raidermex	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Apr 2007 Posts: 3633 Location: California	#11 Posted: 12/8/2011 2:44:25 PM i.e Cleveland at Pittsburgh Cleveland's Away ATS Wins= 2 Cleveland's Away ATS Losses=3 Pittsburgh's Home ATS Wins= 4 Pittsburgh's Home ATS Losses=2 Cleveland's Away ATS Probability= (2+2)/11=4/11=.36 Pittsburgh's Home ATS Probability=(4+3)/11=7/11=.64 Pittsburgh has a 64% chance to cover the spread. The football model and the ATS probability calculation do not match on the spread. You need to bet with caution.
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Mike41082	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: MGM Grand \|
Prospect Joined: Oct 2010 Posts: 31 Location: Illinois	#12 Posted: 1/8/2012 2:09:56 AM cool thanks guy ... I learned a few things picking threw all this
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Raidermex	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Apr 2007 Posts: 3633 Location: California	#13 Posted: 2/16/2012 6:04:46 PM Here is a basic formula: (Away Team PS+Home Team PA)/2= Away Team Points Scored (Home Team PS+Away Team PA)/2=Home Team Points Scored i.e Philadelphia at Seattle Philadelphia's Away PS= 25 Away PA=20 Seattle's Home PS=18 Home PA=23 Philadelphia's Score= (25+23)/2=(48)/2=24 Seattle's Score= (18+20)/2=(38)/2=19 Philadelphia should win by 5 Here is an adjustment to my model for basketball. LAVG=X Road Team's Offensive Rating= Road Team's PS/X Road Team's Defensive Rating=Road Team's PA/X Home Team's Offensive Rating=Home Team's PS/X Home Team's Defensive Rating= Home Team's PA/X Road Team's Performance Rating= (Road Team's Offensive Rating+Home Team's Defensive Rating)/2 Home Team's Performance Rating=(Home Team's Offensive Rating+Road Team's Defensive Rating)/2 Road Team's Base Offense=(Road Team's PS+Home Team's PA)/2 Home Team's Base Offense=(Home Team's PS+Road Team's PA)/2 Road Team's Projected Score= Road Team's Base Offense* Road Team's Performance Rating Home Team's Projected Score=Home Team's Base OffenseHome Team's Performance Rating i.e NBA's League Average=95 LA Clippers at Portland LA Clippers PS=97 PA=97 Portland PS=105 PA=94 LA Clippers' Offensive Rating= (97/95)=1.02 LA Clippers' Defensive Rating=(97/95)=1.02 Portland's Offensive Rating=(105/95)=1.10 Portland's Defensive Rating=(94/95)=.99 LA Clippers' Performance Rating=(1.02+.99)/2=1.00 Portland's Performance Rating=(1.10+1.02)/2=1.06 LA Clippers' Base Offense=(97+94)/2=96 Portland's Base Offense=(105+97)/2=101 LA Clippers' Projected Score=961.00=96 Portland's Projected Score=101*1.06=107 Portland by 11; 206 points
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Mr_Ranch	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Sep 2011 Posts: 250 Location:	#14 Posted: 3/1/2012 6:16:23 PM There are thousands of approaches and mostly none of them work.
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