NHL 2011 Consensus Dogs

Forum: Systems & Strategies Page 1 of 5  1 2 3 4 5  
Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NHL 2011 Consensus Dogs
jonnymega PM jonnymega
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Posted: 10/6/2011 12:24:58 PM

Hello and Happy Hockey Season!





Simply put, this system fades the consensus while picking the dogs with the better value.

Though there are some who do quite well laying the chalk, I've always found that playing the dogs and going against the public opinion was the better strategy when gaming the NHL. With that in mind, I offer to chart this method over the course of the season with this thread.

For tracking purposes, each play will be for one unit which will be 2% of the bankroll. So, with 3-5 plays per day, there should never be more than 10% risked at a time. Further, as the bank increases or decreases, the unit size adjusts accordingly.

I'm fully confident that, by using this process of money management along with some basic handicapping and a little luck, this thread will see positive results.

Thanks and GL to all this season!




jonnymega PM jonnymega
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Posted: 10/6/2011 12:27:58 PM
10/06/11


Bank $1000.00
Unit   $20.00


Today's plays:


PIT +138
PHI +122



BOLTA 


glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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Posted: 10/6/2011 2:02:46 PM
Waiting for any NHL method.... had a great MLB season thanks to similar systems. GL!
Posted using a mobile device.
glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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Posted: 10/6/2011 2:02:48 PM
Waiting for any NHL method.... had a great MLB season thanks to similar systems. GL!
Posted using a mobile device.
BBQGreggy PM BBQGreggy
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Minnesota
 
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Posted: 10/6/2011 2:38:28 PM

Good Luck Johnny, I'm on both of them with ya!  Lets have a great hockey season!

jonnymega PM jonnymega
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Posted: 10/7/2011 9:30:51 AM
Thanks for following guys!




Should be an awesome year!

jonnymega PM jonnymega
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Posted: 10/7/2011 9:31:23 AM
10/07/11



Yesterday:

PIT +138  WIN
PHI +122  WIN

Record  2-0
Starting Bank $1000.00
Current Bank  $1052.00
Current Unit    $21.04



Today's plays:


ANA +115
OTT +193

jtmoney87 PM jtmoney87
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Posted: 10/7/2011 11:48:29 AM
Like this good luck bud!!!
jonnymega PM jonnymega
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jonnymega
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Posted: 10/7/2011 12:22:45 PM
Thanks bro.

For those following, here's a spreadsheet that will be recording all plays in detail. Also, I put together a twitter for this system at twitter/jonnymegaNHL11 if anyone wants to follow that.


 
jonnymega PM jonnymega
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Posted: 10/8/2011 8:49:19 AM
10/08/11


Yesterday:

ANA +115  LOSS
OTT +193  LOSS

Record  2-2
Starting Bank $1000.00
Current Bank  $1009.92
Current Unit    $20.20



Today's plays:


DAL +167
CLB +132
FLA +113



book

jonnymega PM jonnymega
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Posted: 10/9/2011 11:04:16 AM
10/09/11


Yesterday:

DAL +167  LOSS
CLB +132 
LOSS
FLA +113
  WIN

Record  3-4
Starting Bank $1000.00
Current Bank  $992.35
Current Unit    $19.85



Today's plays:


MTL +105




book
jonnymega PM jonnymega
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Posted: 10/10/2011 9:16:09 AM
10/10/11


Yesterday:

MTL +105  WIN

Record  4-4
Starting Bank $1000.00
Current Bank  $1013.19
Current Unit    $20.26



Today's plays:


CGY +123
PHO +121
TB +148


book

JoshLewis PM JoshLewis
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 477
Greece
 
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Posted: 10/10/2011 8:53:44 PM
amigo, i strongly suggest to make a backtesting. how was last season? you can backtest by covers/wagerline.
jonnymega PM jonnymega
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Posted: 10/11/2011 9:09:00 AM
Thanks, Josh. Backtesting is difficult because these are not blind picks. Originally, I had considered just fading the top 3 consensus picks and playing those blind everyday. Instead, I've been looking for the dogs with the best value and best chance of winning. It's probably not to late to switch over to blind picks... I surmise the outcome will probably be about the same either way ...


jonnymega PM jonnymega
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Posted: 10/11/2011 12:42:50 PM
10/11/11


Yesterday:


CGY +123  LOSS
PHO +121  LOSS
TB +148  LOSS

Record  4-7
Starting Bank $1000.00
Current Bank  $952.41
Current Unit    $19.05



Today's plays:


No plays


jonnymega PM jonnymega
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Posted: 10/12/2011 10:03:12 AM
10/12/11


Yesterday:

No plays

Record  4-7
Starting Bank $1000.00
Current Bank  $952.41
Current Unit    $19.05



Today's plays:


COL +125


book
jonnymega PM jonnymega
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Posted: 10/13/2011 1:40:43 PM
10/13/11


Yesterday:

COL +125  WINNER

Record  4-7
Starting Bank $1000.00
Current Bank  $952.41
Current Unit    $19.05



Today's plays:


CGY +116
PHO +124
WIN +174


book
jonnymega PM jonnymega
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jonnymega
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Posted: 10/13/2011 1:42:43 PM
Here's the updated record to go with the post above - my bad:


Record  5-7
Starting Bank $1000.00
Current Bank  $976.22
Current Unit    $19.52



jonnymega PM jonnymega
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Posted: 10/14/2011 10:08:02 AM
10/14/11


Yesterday:

CGY +116  WIN
PHO +124 
WIN
WIN +174
   LOSS

Record  7-8
Starting Bank $1000.00
Current Bank  $1003.39
Current Unit    $20.07



Today's plays:


CAR +165



book

georugby PM georugby
Joined: Sep 2005
Posts: 2168
Quebec
 
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Posted: 10/14/2011 11:32:00 AM

Early observation:

Weestern conference:

Overall - 3-8

Range (+100 @ +150): 3-4

Range over +150: 0-1

 

Eastern Conference:

4-3 overall

Range (+100 @ +150): 4-1

Range over +150: 0-2

Kinda interesting!

jonnymega PM jonnymega
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Posted: 10/14/2011 11:41:09 AM
nice perspective, georugby! cool
Lippsman PM Lippsman
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Posted: 10/14/2011 11:17:47 PM
What consensus are you fading ?  Covers consensus ?  Fading money line movement ?
jonnymega PM jonnymega
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Posted: 10/15/2011 11:27:31 AM
Hi Lippsman. I always check out your daily NHL thread. Thanks for that.




Yes, these plays fade the covers consensus. I basically pick and choose from there. The theory behind this is that the plays with the highest discrepancy in consensus will offer the highest value dogs (because everyone's hammering the favorite).




jonnymega PM jonnymega
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Posted: 10/15/2011 11:30:56 AM
10/15/11


Yesterday:

CAR +165  WIN


Record  8-8
Starting Bank $1000.00
Current Bank  $1036.51
Current Unit    $20.73



Today's plays:


BOS +124
EDM +138
LAK +125
MIN +125



book

jonnymega PM jonnymega
Joined: Jun 2008
Posts: 812
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jonnymega
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Posted: 10/16/2011 8:53:23 AM
10/16/11


Yesterday:


BOS +124  WIN
EDM +138  LOSS
LAK +125  WIN
MIN +125
  LOSS


Record  10-10
Starting Bank $1000.00
Current Bank  $1047.41
Current Unit    $20.95



Today's plays:


No plays



book

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