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Author:	[Systems & Strategies] Topic: Leprechaun's MLB Series System
Leprechaun	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Mar 2009 Posts: 315 Location: United States	#1 Posted: 4/26/2010 7:28:46 PM Hello all. I’ve been a member here at this forum as well as the other popular forums for awhile but like many, I rarely post. Like Kreatture (still possibly the best contributor to this forum), I feel like there is too much BS to deal with. His comeback inspired me somewhat, so this year for MLB, I've decided to post and track a system that I came up with back in 2008. In 2009, the system was put to the test...I played it from the last week in April until the last week in August. The system went 158-4 over this period for about 120 units profit. (this is a SERIES result...a loss is counted only if we were playing on a team that got swept in the series. If our team wins 1 game in the series it is a win...although the units won on that series varies!) More importantly, of our 158 wins, in 111 of those series, the team we picked won 2 of 3 games. Of the 47 series that we won only one game, approximately 15 of those went to game C (don't have the exact number but will track it this year). Since these results were not posted publicly, you don’t have any reason to believe them. However, this year I began tracking the results for April (the “preseason” for this system) on my blog: www.leprechaunsportsclub.com. (visit my covers space if the url gets redacted) There you can see documented results of this system, already +44 units for this season. Note: this is not a site promotion...the picks there are free and will remain free throughout the season. This is about beating the man and nothing more. I’ll be posting this system in a few of my favorite forums so keeping things organized is important. I find it better to centralize information in one place instead of repeating it over and over again...which reminds me: One important point before I get into this: If you are interested in this system, PLEASE read the entire thread and make sure you understand before playing it or making any comments. Part of the reason I’ve always been reluctant to post in forums is that I see so many people peak into a thread looking for a fast way to make a buck and they ask the same questions that have been asked 20 times, or they bash a system without understanding it fully. I only ask that if you're going to post in this thread, please make sure you have read the whole thing first. If it looks too long and you don't want to take the time, that is fine, just say nothing. There is a lot of information in these initial posts and this thread will likely get pretty long, but it's Darwinian in a way...I'll be happy to scare off those that are too impatient to read the whole thing. It will make life much easier for the rest of us and keep the thread uncluttered. ---truncated for length...see part 2 below---- -Leprechaun
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Leprechaun	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Mar 2009 Posts: 315 Location: United States	#2 Posted: 4/26/2010 7:29:34 PM This system is based on how teams perform in a 3 game series at home or on the road (henceforth referred to as game A, game B, and game C). Based on a formula I created, we chose a team to win 1, 2, or 3 games in a given series. If the team we play on gets swept, that counts as a loss. This differs from most chase systems out there for two reasons. First, if our team wins game A, we sometimes go for a second or even a third win in that same series. Secondly, this system does not chase to win just one unit per series. We use stats to predict our probability and unit size for each series. We can increase profit per series significantly if we let the numbers work for us, giving us a bigger bankroll, and thus allowing us to increase unit size. More importantly, we can avoid dropping big units on series losses if we keep a close eye on the numbers. Much like poker...if you know stats, you can bet big when you have a good hand, and bet small when you don't. In this game, there is no bluffing...if the numbers are against us, we fold. I'll repeat this over and over as the season progresses...NOTHING IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN UNIT MANAGEMENT. There are hundreds of MLB systems out there, and the truth is that many of them work great...they usually fail because the user fails to manage their units correctly. The plays are decided based on the matchups. This system is dynamic so there are no set teams to play on. As the season progresses, we collect team data that will put matchups in or out of the system. As each series is completed and the results are processed, the factors that decide the plays for each team changes. I think this is the most important part of the system and one of the major reasons it works so well. You are relying on up to the minute data. The team to play on and if you play the road or home team, is completely dependent on the numbers. That means teams will move in and out of the system depending on 1)how good or bad they do, 2) how good or bad their opponent does, and 3) how good or bad the league does AS THE SEASON PROGRESSES. There are two things we have to figure out in order to "profit" from a given system. One thing is to identify a set of plays that hit at a high percentage, which I think we've managed to do, but the second part is betting those plays correctly. People often underestimate the importance of finding a way to bet any given system. Unit management is more important than the system itself. With a sport like baseball, there are hundreds of different angles and chase systems out there that have a proven track record. As I said before, the reason most of these fail is bad unit management. When you see a system that chases 4, 5, or 6 games they look enticing. However, when you get down to the actual units involved, in order to keep risk low, you have to bet such a small unit amount that the amount of work and stress involved is hardly worth the tiny profit. Either that, or the units get so out of hand that no one has the balls to play the system out (this can even happen in a 3 game chase). When developing this system, I tried to keep all these things in mind. Last year, I took a modified Martingale approach, pushing hard on A games and backing off on B and C games and recouping lost units later. This strategy worked pretty well for the most part, but in August I learned the system clearly lacked a disciplined approach to unit management. There was too much "gut" feeling involved instead of betting based on the numbers. Fluctuation was too high...that’s why the system profited only 120 units last year when it should have been 3 or 4 times that amount. This year, we’ll use a modified Labourchere method (similar to PSIC's) combined with a Martingale approach. If you aren’t familiar with either of these methods...use google, it is your friend. The idea is explained and explored in depth with examples on my blog (link above, or check my covers space)...just click on General info but the bottom line is that this system gains strength as the season goes on and we collect more data. I expect a minimum of 50 units/month and I hope that June and July will produce twice that. No guarantees of course, but expectations are pretty high after how well 2009 went and how well our trial period went for April. Admittedly, I’m still learning and tinkering with how to bet this system, so certainly there will be some stumbling along the way...but if we follow the system, it will be very unlikely that we lose money. The system will officially start next Monday, May 3. I look forward to posting the plays and results here daily or as often as I can (I have a real job and this is a lot of work!) I also look forward to being a more regular contributor in the forum...in this thread and in others. In the meantime, the trial period picks will continue to be posted on the website for tracking. Good luck to all, and lets CRUSH the books!! -Leprechaun
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therizz	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Mar 2010 Posts: 2279 Location:	#3 Posted: 4/26/2010 7:45:33 PM looking forward to it
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nyczyoungn	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Dec 2007 Posts: 880 Location: New York	#4 Posted: 4/26/2010 7:56:29 PM really interesting, bol
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sportzmaniac	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Prospect Joined: Apr 2010 Posts: 20 Location:	#5 Posted: 4/26/2010 10:51:00 PM good luck
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Leprechaun	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Mar 2009 Posts: 315 Location: United States	#6 Posted: 5/3/2010 12:00:35 AM Okay...the trial period is over. We had a very tough ending but still ended up in the black and I consider it a success and an invaluable learning experience. Despite what Allen Iverson thinks, practice is indeed important:) We used April for that so now it's time to get to the real deal. No need to rehash...blog has extensive comments on this. Strangely, there will be a very inauspicious start to this system as there is only one play today. First time that has happened since I started tracking this. Weird. Lots of juice which I don't like (and Sabathia who I really don't like) but we do what the system tells us and we'll keep it small: May 3 MLB Series System Picks (First official day!!) 1a. Yanks (-305) to win 1 unit 1b. Yanks RL (-145) to win 1 unit Overall SU record: 0-0, +0 units Overall SERIES record: 0-0 Good luck to all. Leprechaun
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doubledime	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Jan 2010 Posts: 142 Location:	#7 Posted: 5/3/2010 1:31:32 PM Good luck Lep
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SFJustice	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Sep 2009 Posts: 68 Location: California	#8 Posted: 5/3/2010 4:40:01 PM Good Luck & Thanx for sharing
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nyczyoungn	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Dec 2007 Posts: 880 Location: New York	#9 Posted: 5/3/2010 11:37:24 PM good win
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Leprechaun	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Mar 2009 Posts: 315 Location: United States	#10 Posted: 5/3/2010 11:58:47 PM May 4 MLB Series System Picks 1. Yanks RL (-115) to win 1 unit *Results from May 3: 1a. Yanks (-305) to win 1 unit-------win 1b. Yanks RL (-145) to win 1 unit-----win Total for May 3: 1-0, +2 units (Note: For our SU record, we count plays on TEAMS...if there is a RL and a ML play, it is only 1 win. Units count normally) Record and Notes* Overall SU record: 1-0, +2 units Overall SERIES record (through May 3): 1-0 Easy win for the Yanks and a nice start for us. Right back on them for another unit on Tuesday. Normally would play it on ML but it's never too early to start protecting your winnings...even if it's just 1 measley unit:) It's good practice for later. Was hoping for more plays but there is plenty of time. Good luck, Leprechaun
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Leprechaun	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Mar 2009 Posts: 315 Location: United States	#11 Posted: 5/5/2010 1:53:57 AM May 5 MLB Series System Picks 1. Atl (-140) to win 2 units *Results from May 4* 1. Yanks RL (-115) to win 1 unit----win Total for May 4: 1-0, +1 units *Notes* Nice to see another victory of course...but this is an easy series. If it was later in the season and we had the bankroll, the system says we'd play the yanks for the sweep. We'll do a lot of that when we have the luxury of large profits. For now, we play it a little closer to the vest. Still just one play for the today. This is very unusual...when we get to this weekend it will pick up and we'll start to really get into things. **Record* Overall SU record: 2-0, +3 units Overall SERIES record (through May 3): 1-0 May the force by with you, Leprechaun
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Leprechaun	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Mar 2009 Posts: 315 Location: United States	#12 Posted: 5/6/2010 1:19:34 AM May 6 MLB Series System Picks 1a. Min (-230) to win 1 unit 1b. Min RL (-120) to win 1 unit 2. Tex (-145) to win 1 unit 3. LAD (-120) to win 0.5 units (unless there is a miracle comeback tonight...stranger things have happened) 4. Sea (+125) risk 0.5 units *Results from May 5* 1. Atl (-140) to win 2 units Total for May 5: 1-0, +2 units *Notes* Nice to get one in extra innings. The gambling gods owed us that after what happened last Sunday...even if that was the trial period. System was right about the Yankees sweep too...although we didn't have the units to play it. No worries...there will be plenty of that in the future. We are building a buffer zone, albeit small, for the weekend. It's a microcosm of what the season is about...build that bankroll so you can play with house money. One last thought that has nothing to do with the system or even MLB...if you're gonna put "Los Suns" why not go all the way and put "Los Soles?" If you're trying to display some sort of solidarity, then get it right. Spanish teachers across the USA are cringing. **Record* Overall SU record: 3-0, +5 units Overall SERIES record (through May 5): 1-0 Buena Suerte, Leprechaun
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kreatture	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports \|
Veteran Joined: May 2009 Posts: 2312 Location: Nova Scotia	#13 Posted: 5/6/2010 1:56:42 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by Leprechaun: One last thought that has nothing to do with the system or even MLB...if you're gonna put "Los Suns" why not go all the way and put "Los Soles?" If you're trying to display some sort of solidarity, then get it right. Spanish teachers across the USA are cringing. It wasn't a statement of "solidarity".. it was a statement about multi-culturalism.. Spanish teachers across the USA should be proud.. Continued success with your System..
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Leprechaun	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Mar 2009 Posts: 315 Location: United States	#14 Posted: 5/6/2010 2:43:53 AM Just a joke man...didn't mean to ruffle any feathers. This is not the space to get political and I don't want to start a debate of any kind in this thread. I tend to see the funny side of things. I appreciate the message WAY more than you can imagine. I spent 3 of the last 7 years living and traveling in Central and South America. I'm American as apple pie pero tengo sangre latino. Leprechaun
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MEX_ROOKIE	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Nov 2009 Posts: 3396 Location: Mexico	#15 Posted: 5/6/2010 3:27:33 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by Leprechaun: Just a joke man...didn't mean to ruffle any feathers. This is not the space to get political and I don't want to start a debate of any kind in this thread. I tend to see the funny side of things. I appreciate the message WAY more than you can imagine. I spent 3 of the last 7 years living and traveling in Central and South America. I'm American as apple pie pero tengo sangre latino. Leprechaun yo tambien! Good luck my friend! low profile.... good results.... keep it up!!!...you will be famous soon!!! pd love all your plays so far!
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Leprechaun	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Mar 2009 Posts: 315 Location: United States	#16 Posted: 5/7/2010 1:57:09 AM Thursday, May 7 MLB Series System Picks 1a. Min (-220) to win 1.7 units 1b. Min RL (-110) to win 2.2 2. Fla (-115) to win 1 unit *Results from May 6* 1a. Min (-230) to win 1 unit--------lose 2.3 units 1b. Min RL (-120) to win 1 unit--------lose 1.2 units 2. Tex (-145) to win 1 unit-----------win 3. LAD (-120) to win 0.5 units------win (walk off grand slam!!) 4. Sea (+125) risk 0.5 units---------lose .5 units Total for May 6: 2-2, -2.5 units *Notes* Wow...nothing is easy these days. Texas blows an 8-0 led to make us sweat and then the Dodgers give up a two run lead in the 9th with two outs!! We won both of those but damn, this could be a long season. Anyway, the system still isn't giving us many plays, but don't worry, it will pick up. **Record* Overall SU record: 5-2, +2.5 units Overall SERIES record (through May 5): 1-0 Happy Friday, Leprechaun
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Leprechaun	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Mar 2009 Posts: 315 Location: United States	#17 Posted: 5/7/2010 3:49:45 PM Update for Friday, May 7: Sorry gang, not only did I forget to change the day to Friday in the previous post, but I forgot one: Milwaukee (-130) to win 1 unit Also, Minnesota game has been postponed and they will play a double header tomorrow. I'll repost it, but the same units will go for their first game tomorrow. Leprechaun
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kreatture	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports \|
Veteran Joined: May 2009 Posts: 2312 Location: Nova Scotia	#18 Posted: 5/7/2010 4:17:54 PM Enjoy your camping trip this weekend with the family. I'm sure a clean, fresh board will await you on your return! Cheers
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Leprechaun	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Mar 2009 Posts: 315 Location: United States	#19 Posted: 5/9/2010 9:34:06 PM Okay gang, back on the grid. Sorry, I was not able to access internet over the weekend, so I could not post plays. Unfortunately for me, the Minnesota Game B play was posted in this thread and will count in our losses. For the integrity of the system, I will only count picks that were posted in this thread. Therefore, even though we won the Minnesota series on game C, we cannot count those units for tracking purposes (but hopefully you have the $$ tucked safely in your bankroll!!). This means our bottom line will show negative units for the system even though in reality, we are up a few units. I'm not worried about it...we will win so many units with this system that 6 units one way or the other won't matter:) ---------------------------------------- **Results from Friday, May 7 1. Mil (-130) to win 1 unit-------win 2. Fla (-115) to win 1 unit-------win Total for May 7: 2-0, +2 units ------------------------------------------------------ Results from Saturday May 8 1a. Min (-245) to win 1.7 units------lose 4.2 units 1b. Min RL (-115) to win 2.2--------lose 2.5 units Total for May 8: 0-1, -6.7 units --------------------------------------------------------------------- Record for 2010* Overall SU record: 7-3, -2.2 units (units and record DO NOT count Minnesota win on Saturday night!!) Overall SERIES record (through May 9): 5-0 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Plays for tomorrow will be posted in a couple hours...need to run the numbers...also need to put away all this camping crap. Leprechaun
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Leprechaun	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Mar 2009 Posts: 315 Location: United States	#20 Posted: 5/10/2010 1:02:04 AM Monday, May 10 MLB Series System Picks 1. LAD (-120) to win 1.5 units 2. Mets (-155) to win 2 units *Notes* Whew...long weekend for me so I'll be brief. Short schedule on Monday so not much out there. We have 3 more series starting on Tuesday. Let's hope we can pick up a few units right off the bat (pun intended). **Record* Overall SU record: 7-3, -2.2 units Overall SERIES record (through May 9): 5-0 Let's have a big week, Leprechaun
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doubledime	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Jan 2010 Posts: 142 Location:	#21 Posted: 5/10/2010 8:14:32 AM Thanks and BOL this week Lep
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Leprechaun	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Mar 2009 Posts: 315 Location: United States	#22 Posted: 5/11/2010 10:09:10 AM Tuesday, May 11 MLB Series System Picks 1. Mets (-135) to win 3.7 units 2a. Cards (-210) to win 1.3 units 2b. Cards RL (-110) to win 1.5 units 3. San Fran (-150) to win 1.3 units 4. Min (-160) to win 1.5 units *Results from May 10* 1. LAD (-120) to win 1.5 units-------win 2. Mets (-155) to win 2 units-------lose 3.1 units Total for May 10: 1-1, -1.6 units *Notes* Really like all these games today so hoping for a nice one. It's getting hard to stay patient and wait for the system to give us strong plays but we have to stay on track early and build that bankroll. **Record* Overall SU record: 8-4, -3.8 units Overall SERIES record (through May 9): 5-0 Be kind to the gambling gods, Leprechaun
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smitler	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Veteran Joined: Feb 2009 Posts: 2365 Location: United States	#23 Posted: 5/11/2010 11:01:33 AM So you are not playing to win a series you are still playing individual games within a series because I can get STL -350 to win the series. Looks like you are trying to win 1 unit on game 1 so why did ATL and NYM start to win 2 units and LAD to win 1.5?
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mikkii10	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Oct 2004 Posts: 634 Location: Canada	#24 Posted: 5/11/2010 11:29:44 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by Leprechaun: Tuesday, May 11 MLB Series System Picks 1. Mets (-135) to win 3.7 units 2a. Cards (-210) to win 1.3 units 2b. Cards RL (-110) to win 1.5 units 3. San Fran (-150) to win 1.3 units 4. Min (-160) to win 1.5 units *Results from May 10* 1. LAD (-120) to win 1.5 units-------win 2. Mets (-155) to win 2 units-------lose 3.1 units Total for May 10: 1-1, -1.6 units *Notes* Really like all these games today so hoping for a nice one. It's getting hard to stay patient and wait for the system to give us strong plays but we have to stay on track early and build that bankroll. **Record* Overall SU record: 8-4, -3.8 units Overall SERIES record (through May 9): 5-0 Be kind to the gambling gods, Leprechaun todays picks are the best so far that i have seen
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doubledime	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Jan 2010 Posts: 142 Location:	#25 Posted: 5/11/2010 11:59:58 AM Thanks LEP and BOL
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