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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: using a labouchere with the John Morrison NBA system?
bobsimmons send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 10/25/2009 11:20:42 PM

Hey guys:

I want to get prepared for the NBA system which will be here sooner than you think.

Some of you guys have used the labby with the John Morrison NBA system.

Here are some questions I have:

1. What if a person has a $1,000 account. What are the most profitable and at the same time safest numbers to start out with for the labby?

25 25 25 25 ?  That would give you 5% as the starting value of the first play. Has anyone successfully used something higher than that?

2. Did you buy the extra three points with the labby?

3. Has anyone used it successfully without buying the extra three points?

4. What was your system if you did?

5. Has anyone used the labby for more than six weeks during the last NBA season and if so how did you do?

Thanks,  Bob 

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Posted: 10/30/2009 11:55:21 AM

Here are some stats from the results of John Morrison's picks for the 2008 - 2009 NBA season. We should be able to build a good system with the below stats as our guide?

Record 80-1 (He will quote 80-0)

57 Won on A BET
18 Won on B BET
5 Won on C BET

1 Lost Series

This is based one good record keeper's experience with the sportsbooks he was using during the 2008 - 2009 NBA season. There may be a very slight discrepency with other people's records and their sportsbooks (maybe an extra B or an extra C).

 

*************************************************************************


Another person kept track of the results without buying the 3 points and here it is:


Here is the 2008-2009 NBA season results for the John Morrison. NBA system if you were not buying the 3 points:


(A) Bets W/L..46 wins -37 losses = winrate 55.4%

(B) Bets W/L..24 wins -13 losses = winrate 64.9%

(C) Bets W/L..6 wins -7 losses = winrate 46.1%


If you had been buying the 3 points I think it was one losing series. But I'm not sure because I don't buy the three points.


If you had not been buying the 3 points then the (C) bet lost 7 times.


If you use JM's progression and not buying the 3 extra points it was 7 losing series... during the 2008 to 2009 season.


So based on the above results you can use the above stats to design a betting system to bet on J.M.s picks for the 2009 - 2010 NBA season.

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#3
Posted: 10/30/2009 4:13:24 PM

Based on just last year, it looks like doing A and B with no points and C with the 3 points might be an interesting combo.

Math needs to be appled there, and needs to be researched. Like how many games would never have gone to the C level if you bought points for A and/or B too.

But a quick look with trying to win 100 per line using Lab MM

Gme A loss with no points -110

Gme B loss with no points, (using method of dividing A loss by 3 and spreading among A B C lines so, 50 + 37):  -96  (trying to win 87 cost 96)

Now you are down a total of 206 from A and B loss.

Dividing the 96 B loss among the 3 lines puts the C line at 50-50-50-50-37-32, so you are trying to now win 82 for C game. BUT, you are now buying the 3 points for the C, and my book charges -190 for that. So: 156 to win 82.

If you bought 3 points for all 3 you would be at 232 to win 122 for the C wager

Whereas if you Martingale chase you would be at 1,597 to win 841 on a C wager.

Food for thought.

GL to you

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Posted: 10/30/2009 5:34:55 PM
Have you guys found a reputable book that lets you buy the 3 points? All the ones I use either only offer alt lines on certain games or only allow you to buy up to two points.
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#5
Posted: 10/30/2009 6:44:05 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Gothamcity:

Have you guys found a reputable book that lets you buy the 3 points? All the ones I use either only offer alt lines on certain games or only allow you to buy up to two points.

betjamaica lets you buy three points and there reputable

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#6
Posted: 10/30/2009 10:30:26 PM
nolemonasses
Always good stuff man.........
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Posted: 10/31/2009 2:40:26 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jv040:

betjamaica lets you buy three points and there reputable



Thanks jv
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Posted: 10/31/2009 2:50:10 AM

I am only able to buy 2 points.  Last year only buying 2 as opposed to 3 resulted in 1 push instead of 1 win for the whole season.

Best of Luck.

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Posted: 10/31/2009 11:55:21 AM

Thanks Montana. I think I am gonna buy the points in the first few series to hopefully have that make the difference and get the BR growing.

Puppet, you are doing three Lab. lines, right?  Saw you on SBR yesterday warning the sheep. People there are much more touchy feely sensitive than here...

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#10
Posted: 10/31/2009 1:39:54 PM
Yeah Nole.......... About SBR
Mad youngbucks too
A few quality guys here and there but a lot of BS
I got booted from the RX for  somewhat similar stuff
Some hothead just couldn't understand the Labby and in the the midst I also posted Lippsman's sportsbettingchump.com to help warn some people and then the link to PSIC describing the Labby
Well looks like they don't like cats talking about competition and sided with that weenie I was arguing with too
Oh well......... Their loss - Odd though because its surprised how some old heads there I respect had no idea what the Labouchere was and were interested in learning about it
The Den and JD's is where the party's at too - no BS there - just quality
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Posted: 10/31/2009 3:42:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by puppetm716:

I am only able to buy 2 points.  Last year only buying 2 as opposed to 3 resulted in 1 push instead of 1 win for the whole season.

Best of Luck.



Interesting, I was wondering about the record with only buying 2 points. I am planning on using the Martingale system though and probably would want to kill myself if I lost a series because of that one point.
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Posted: 11/1/2009 12:04:28 AM

Although I can't stand Morrisons lies and nonsense propaganda for all his new and improved systems, I do actually follow his MLB, NBA and NFL systems. You guys are talking about a labouchere for his system but really what is the point of that? Last year the NBA system went 80-1.(somehow Morrison deceided not to include the Sacramento loss because it was the first series of the year)

Regardless of that the system was extremely profitable if you followed it the way he tells you to. For example, buying 3 points on every play typically results in the bettor getting a line of -170 for each bet. If you do the math on that, each winning bet would result in a payout of $58.82.

If your A betting pattern  is $100 (A) $250 (B) and $650 (C) your profit for the year would be the following:

80 wins x $58.82 =$4705.60- 1 loss = $1000

Yearly total winnings = $3705.60

A starting bet of $200 would double that number and give you a total yearly winnings of $7411.20.

Now I ask everyone, what is wrong with that? If you ask me I will take those kind of winnings for the NBA season for the rest of my life. Even if you lose 2 or 3 games during the season you will make a profit. In most cases a $1000 starting bankroll will suffice however it is a much safer option if you start with $2000. 

Basically the point of this post was to say that this system really doesn't need any tweaking. If it's not broke don't fix it.  

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#13
Posted: 11/1/2009 12:29:14 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nixwinz99:

Although I can't stand Morrisons lies and nonsense propaganda for all his new and improved systems, I do actually follow his MLB, NBA and NFL systems. You guys are talking about a labouchere for his system but really what is the point of that? Last year the NBA system went 80-1.(somehow Morrison deceided not to include the Sacramento loss because it was the first series of the year)

Regardless of that the system was extremely profitable if you followed it the way he tells you to. For example, buying 3 points on every play typically results in the bettor getting a line of -170 for each bet. If you do the math on that, each winning bet would result in a payout of $58.82.

If your A betting pattern  is $100 (A) $250 (B) and $650 (C) your profit for the year would be the following:

80 wins x $58.82 =$4705.60- 1 loss = $1000

Yearly total winnings = $3705.60

A starting bet of $200 would double that number and give you a total yearly winnings of $7411.20.

Now I ask everyone, what is wrong with that? If you ask me I will take those kind of winnings for the NBA season for the rest of my life. Even if you lose 2 or 3 games during the season you will make a profit. In most cases a $1000 starting bankroll will suffice however it is a much safer option if you start with $2000. 

Basically the point of this post was to say that this system really doesn't need any tweaking. If it's not broke don't fix it.  



Actually your math is a bit off (no offense)
BUYING 3 POINTS AT -170
[A] Risk 100 to win 58.82(58.82 profit)
[B] Risk 250 to win 147.06(47.06 profit)
[C] Risk 650 to win 382.35(32.35 profit)

So as you can see your winning depend on what level you win them at. I do agree with you that if you can manage your bankroll with the chase system you can make a profit with 1 loss. But if it does lose 2-3 losses per year it wont be that profitable.

Also no one here is trying to fix the system. We all know that its pretty rock solid. But we are trying to tweak the system to make us a bigger profit. Because at the end of the day its not about going 80-1 or 77-3 its about the units.

My 2 cents
BOL with NBA this year.
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#14
Posted: 11/1/2009 1:57:48 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nixwinz99:

Although I can't stand Morrisons lies and nonsense propaganda for all his new and improved systems, I do actually follow his MLB, NBA and NFL systems. You guys are talking about a labouchere for his system but really what is the point of that? Last year the NBA system went 80-1.(somehow Morrison deceided not to include the Sacramento loss because it was the first series of the year)

Regardless of that the system was extremely profitable if you followed it the way he tells you to. For example, buying 3 points on every play typically results in the bettor getting a line of -170 for each bet. If you do the math on that, each winning bet would result in a payout of $58.82.

If your A betting pattern  is $100 (A) $250 (B) and $650 (C) your profit for the year would be the following:

80 wins x $58.82 =$4705.60- 1 loss = $1000

Yearly total winnings = $3705.60

A starting bet of $200 would double that number and give you a total yearly winnings of $7411.20.

Now I ask everyone, what is wrong with that? If you ask me I will take those kind of winnings for the NBA season for the rest of my life. Even if you lose 2 or 3 games during the season you will make a profit. In most cases a $1000 starting bankroll will suffice however it is a much safer option if you start with $2000. 

Basically the point of this post was to say that this system really doesn't need any tweaking. If it's not broke don't fix it.  






Answer.................
Past performance doesn't guarantee future results

Now read over your statement again............................
Think about if you placed this post at the beginning of the 08 MLB season
If I am correct he went 26-4.......... Yes 4 series losses 

About halfway through that year
Our boy JM bombed big time and that's why he came out with the V2 MLB System
Help yourself to the martingale...........
Doesn't effect our BR's

The martingale is broke
It needs a very strong system for it to succeed
That is why the Labouchere is better if you understand it
Its more conservative

Its cool though - your entitled to your opinion
But when you bomb with the martingale - we'll be waiting for you to come crawling back to us asking how to play the Labouchere so you can win your money back
Its happens to all of us sooner or later
This is why we discuss the Labouchere here

Those of us that are successful, learn from our losses and adjust our money management tactics so we don't blow our loads and waste hard earned wins

Its a marathon not a sprint
And in the long run ask everyone here..............
The labouchere will always kill the martingale

You seem confident, I like that - so join us here and post your plays along side of ours so we can measure them all up
We'll see then who's who
At the end of the day though I wish you the best with your martingale journeys




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Posted: 11/1/2009 2:34:44 AM

Its a marathon not a sprint
And in the long run ask everyone here..............
The labouchere will always kill the martingale

 

Well not exactly, if you don't get the wins even labouchere will fail.  Ask any real gambler.

If you believe in the system you should just buy as many points as your book allows, why stop at 3.  This could eliminate many B games and virtually any chance of getting to a C game.

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#16
Posted: 11/1/2009 5:40:51 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by HECTAR:

Its a marathon not a sprint
And in the long run ask everyone here..............
The labouchere will always kill the martingale

 

Well not exactly, if you don't get the wins even labouchere will fail.  Ask any real gambler.

If you believe in the system you should just buy as many points as your book allows, why stop at 3.  This could eliminate many B games and virtually any chance of getting to a C game.



Well the reason you don't want to buy more than 3 points is because most online sites wont let you buy more than 3 and the ones that do charge more than 10 cents on the dollar for every other half a point past 3. Betus charges -170 for 3 points and -225 for 4 points.

And yes you do have a point that any MM system can break if they don't get wins. If you can have a win percentage of 39% you will break even with the Lab. Do you think you will break even with a 39% win rate with the martingale? And I don't know about you but if a system plans on having a 39% win rate I rather not follow that system.

I don't know about the rest of these guys but I don't consider myself a "Gambler" anymore. I like investor sounds better.
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#17
Posted: 11/1/2009 5:54:39 AM
The combo with only buying 3p in the C-bet sounds good on paper, but in praxis I think it looks a bit different because you would get C-bets, that you would not get if you bought 3p all the way fx:

12/05/08 @ New Jersey L 84-113 Regular Season L 7 U 201.5
12/03/08 @ Orlando L 89-100 Regular Season L 9.5 U 195.5
12/01/08 @ Charlotte L 90-100 Regular Season L 4 O 184.5

The game in New Jersey would be lost even if you bought 3p, but if they were bought in the game against Orlando you would never get to the C-bet.

------------
You can buy 7p at Sportingbet but the odds is 1.27, that would proberly give you a higher hitrate on A and B, but your bankroll would not be so happy for the amount of money you would be risking.
----------------
The Lab sounds good, because the risk seems lower than using MG, but it sure is difficult to find the proper way to use it without simulating each scenario
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Posted: 11/1/2009 9:21:53 AM
I posted what you see in my first two posts on this thread in another forum and someone who has been using JM's picks responded thus:
 
"I think there will be more losses this season..J'M is all over the internet and the sportsbooks know that..I think there will be crappy lines and I think there will be big line moves over the day before game time."
 
What do you guys think of this?  How are you going to proceed in light of this possibility? What modified labby can we use to still win if we have more losses this year...?..... other than starting out with a very small A bet in the system? Does someone want to post the labby you are going to use? We do not have very much time left before the first A bet begins.
 
Thanks,  Bob 
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#19
Posted: 11/1/2009 1:18:20 PM
bobsimmons
Yes this system has been out for many years
My opinion is that too I suppose the lines could jump just enough by a point or 2 against our favor because of how much expodentionally it is being spread out there
I know......... I know........ Buts just my opinion
I think though this is being whored out over many forums I feel that JM is doing more damage with his marketing
The point is that it will reach critical mass at some point meaning if the books lose enough on these specific plays they will adjust the opening lines just enough to gain the edge on the vig back
They know about it too but it all depends how much are they willing to lose before they make the next move
Again just my opinion  - nothing concrete here - and if I'm wrong  - so be it we'll make even more money with the lines not being adjusted

Bobby boy..............  Here ya go my man
http://platinumsportsinvesting.com/labourchere.aspx.
Check back in post # 3 if that can give you any insight
Also you can check with KongKiller's NHL thread on the modified A+B Labouchere method. Good news is were dealing with less juice here even buying the 3 points



HECTAR

Yes you do have a point but please read between the lines
Would you rather lose with martingale or the labouchere
Can't win 'em all but when we do lose a chase we lose less on the labouchere then on the martingale - common sense
I didn't say its invincible
Buying more points will not always help
My opinion is that the system can still be successful without buying any points applied with the right MM chase strategy
Understanding the Labouchere in many ways over the martingale at the end of the day will always lead to success even during series losses

.....................




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#20
Posted: 11/1/2009 1:38:19 PM
I have a question for those using the LAB.

with JM's system plays, are you buying the 3 points in the labouchere and adding the extra juice on the end of line if u lose a game? or not bothering to and sticking to lines created by books keeping juice low?

Thanks.
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#21
Posted: 11/1/2009 6:26:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by UKlad:

I have a question for those using the LAB.

with JM's system plays, are you buying the 3 points in the labouchere and adding the extra juice on the end of line if u lose a game? or not bothering to and sticking to lines created by books keeping juice low?

Thanks.


I am going to be buying 2 points with Lab for my bets. i feel i can afford the -150 juice without a problem and I should be picking up more wins with the 2 extra points. But you don't have to buy any points with the Lab, granted you will lose more but like I mentioned above all you need is a 39% win rate to break even. BOL
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#22
Posted: 11/1/2009 7:39:23 PM
I've lost my link to the NBA JM System.

If someone doesn't mind helping me out and posting or PM'ing me the link.

Thanks. BOL all
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Posted: 11/3/2009 8:40:50 PM

You guys can feel free to post his picks on this thread if you want.

The first one won on the A bet so those who are doing the Labby probably placed a larger bet than you would have if you were doing the martingale in my opinion.

Bob 

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#24
Posted: 12/4/2009 11:12:56 AM
Hi!

I'm new to the system and Labouchere. Could someone explain to me how to use Lab with the NBA betting system?

Some examples too if possible.

Thanks in advance!
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#25
Posted: 12/6/2009 6:30:53 AM

The best explanation of the labourchere is on the website of the person who introduced it to covers about 2 years ago.    I have been following the most updated version where you bet to WIN and I have had a great season so far.

To answer the person who says "what's the point"  In ANY season with a loss, chasing will NEVER outperform the same season using the Labourchere to win and most NBA seasons have 2 losses.

Labourchere: http://www.platinumsportsinvesting.com/labourchere.aspx

Best explanations and their team is always updating and I was told they are working on a special version just for the strongest systems.

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