guys, here's a writeup you may find of interest. GL to all.
One-star pick:
Romero-Tor -- first 5 innings Romero-Tor LHP -- first 5 line -- 2hp(Det) - 2al(Minn) - 0hw(Oak) - 3al(Balt) - 5hl(Bost) -
0hw(KC) - 1al(Tex) - 1(+)aw(Phil) - 2aw(Wash) - 0hw(Phil) - 0hw(TB) -
wlp: 6-4-1. away: 2-3-0.
streak: 4-0 last four. team 9i wlp: 7-4.
Pettitte-NYY LHP -- first 5 line --
1aw(KC) - 3al(TB) - 2hw(Oak) - 4al(Bost) - 0(+6in6th)hw(LAA) - 4hp(TB)
- 2aw(Tor) - 3hw(Minn) - 4hl(Phil) - 0aw(Cleve) - 4hl(Tex) - 3hp(TB) -
5hl(NYM) - 1aw(Fla) - 6al(Atl) - 1hw(Sea)
wlp: 8-6-2. home: 4-3-2.
streak: 1-3 last four home. team 9i wlp: 12-4
(Key: First five line tracks runs allowed, away or home, win or loss, and the opponent in parenthesis. So "4hp(TB)" means 4 runs allowed in the first 5, at home, a push, against Tampa Bay.)
Pitching notes: Romero's on an awfully daunting run since losing to
the Red Sox on May 31 (underlinled portion). In those six first-five
starts, five of them wins, he's allowed more than one run only once (a
2 against the Nationals) and tossed in several 0s. What makes this run
more impressive is the opposition. He's shut down a number of teams
pounding out more than 5 runs per game against left-handers, including
Texas, Philadelphia, and Tampa.
(For an interesting recent profile of Romero, "Romero's changeup turning hears," click here.)
Caveat: Pettitte's first 5 numbers aren't pretty -- but they're often followed by that lovely letter
"W"
that enables wagerers to cash tickets. Part of this is the fact that
he gets good run support, but another part is that he's a gutsy pitcher
with heart who seems to pitch well enough to win. (A la such pitchers
as Buehrle, Marquis, and -- all of them among the top 10 money winners
in baseball over 9 innings.)
That said, Pettite is
distinctively weak at home, the House that Ruth Didn't Build getting on
his brain, and that of C.C. Sabathia, as they try to pitch with too
much finesse and avoid the solo home run to right field. In fact, if
you separate out his first five numbers
just for home games, Pettitte's line looks like this:
2hw(Oak) - 0(+6in6th)hw(LAA) - 4hp(TB) -
3hw(Minn) - 4hl(Phil) - 4hl(Tex) - 3hp(TB) -
5hl(NYM) - 1hw(Sea)
Our hope for Romero winning in the first five, meanwhile, lies in those
Pettite home numbers above. But we probably wouldn't bet against the
Yankees in 9 innings.
(If we were better at totals we'd advocated the under (9 innings only). This rests on Pettitte's
serviceable (not great) track record against Toronto, and the
incredibly weak Jay sticks against southpaws in their last 10 games --
reminiscent of their disastrous road trip of a fe weeks ago when they
tumbled out of first place. Both pitchers walk too many batters,
meaning you are never more than one or two jacks away from losing that
under, but there you have it. This game should resemble Friday's game
when Burnett bested Tallet.)
Day games: Pettite's ERA is a tad higher in day games (4.4 vs. 4.2)
and Romero's a tad lower (2.5 vs. 3.1), a plus for Romero. Romero's
away ERA is higher (3.4) and likely to be higher still at the New
Yankee Stadium and its right-field horn of plenty.
The bats:
Yankees and Blue Jays both like to stick against left-handers: Yankees
to the tune of more than 6 runs a game, Jays more than 5.
Caveat:
In fact, in the last 10 games, Yankee hitting has scored 7.5 runs per 9
innings against lefties. Toronto, by contrast, has dropped to 2.9 RP9i
over the same period.
Injuries: Nothing new on the sheet for
either team. Rodriguez for Yankees, and Barajas, for Jays, were rested
Sunday but should be in the lineup on Monday.
Mojo: The
Yankees are breathing down Boston's neck again, winners of four
straight and 9 of 10. Toronto has won 2 of 10 (both starts by Romero)
and hopes to limp out of town over .500. In short, not a very big plus
for Toronto.
The simplest case is from the numbers. In 6
of his last 10 starts, Pettite has allowed more than 2 runs in the
first 5 innings. In his last 6 starts, Romero has allowed less than
two runs in the first 5 innings 5 times. Even with the strong Yankee
bats and weak Toronto sticks (Romero 2-3 on the road in first fives,
thanks to skimpy skoring) it's at least a coin toss. Given Romero is
about a + 140 underdog even in the first 5, this looks like a decent
bargain.
Where do you get them Mon-E???It is absolute poetry..Banjo Pat would be proud...Found it!!Oh and thank the elves...
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